RADIO
Mike's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 1/18/23. His top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate everyone, our first LPL and LCK slate of the season. The LPL has gotten off to an exciting start with already some unexpected outcomes resulting in the past few days. With how variant the sport is, we will look to take advantage of that in the early season with these new teams. Though it hasn't been an amazing start to the split for DFS, let's see if we can get back on track with this four-gamer. All matches on this one feature favorites of less than -400, so let's see where to find an angle to attack this one.
As a reminder, the best way to find LPL starters before the slate locks are on Twitter. Just go into the explore tab and search LPL starters, and multiple accounts will have starters posted an hour or earlier before lock most of the time. I will also retweet the starters when posted. LCK starters are a little more tricky and will usually be posted on Twitter an hour or less before lock, for the first series that is. The second series starters usually won't be up on Twitter before lock so it's a slight risk to roster players with sub-risk in this match.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM EST on Wednesday, January 18th, 2023. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: DRX (+220) vs. DK(-278)
Our debut match of the LCK features defending world champions in DRX against another team with world champion aspirations in DK. DRX replaced their entire roster except for Beryl. They still have a strong roster to compete domestically, but this DK team on the other side should be favored greater for domestic and national goals. DK added Canna and Deft to the already stacked roster that was knocked out in the quarter-finals at worlds last year. With moving parts on both sides could this be an upset spot to target?
I think this is a good low-owned game to target for value in order to fit in the pricier teams. This meta shapes up great for DK which should help them find an advantage through mid and jungle, which can then determine which side of the map they will play towards. However, I believe DRX is still a good team and can try to play through their bot lane tomorrow. Deokdam can take over a game and Fate coming over from LSB with Croco already means established mid/jungle synergy. I am bullish on this DK team overall, as I believe they will get better and really peak as the split goes on, but need to find leverage on this somewhat chalky slate. This could end up hurting, but I will take shots at a newly constructed DK here as the odds aren't as accurate to me as the next series. A DRX win would most likely come in three games so I am looking at small stacks and one-offs here for value, especially since DK isn't usually a bloody team.
Top DRX plays: Deokdam, Fate, TEAM
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5:00 AM: T1 (-280) vs. GEN (+222)
Our next LCK match features T1 coming off a strong world championship finals appearance that kept their entire roster together, against another LCK titan in GEN who lost their star ADC Ruler to JDG. GEN also replaced their support, and now holds a top side that is strongest compared to their roster last split. This matchup lists similar odds compared to the last series, but I trust the favorite more in this spot in terms of potentially sweeping the opposition.
I agree with the odds here as I like T1 to handle business against GEN. I still think GEN is a playoff team, but T1 staying together is huge for continuity and lessens the chance of early-season struggles. T1 has many paths to victory here, but I would think their best shot comes through playing for Gumayusi, sending Oner down to get his bot lane ahead and hopefully putting him in a position to carry against this new pairing that is GEN G's bot lane. On the other side, it will have to be Chovy and Doran to find success if they want a chance at defeating T1. I could see one game of this series getting bloody, but in terms of a full stack, it will be hard to get behind. T1 small stacks and team slot are the plays here, but I'm not sure how much I end up getting to on this slate.
Top T1 plays: Gumayusi, Oner, Zeus, TEAM
LPL Matches
4:00 AM: FPX (+293) vs. BLG (-384)
Our first match from the LPL lists BLG as big favorites to overcome FPX as both teams prepare for their second series of the split. FPX fought hard in a three-game series loss to Team WE, while BLG also put up an exciting three-game series loss against JDG. FPX found success through Care and Lwx in their game win, while BLG Bin had an amazing series against JDG, backed up by his upgrade at ADC in Elk. Both teams trying to get in the W column could mean some competitive games ahead. It could also spell trouble for FPX who are more likely to start their spring split with an 0-2 record.
I agree with the odds once again as I like BLG to handle business here. In my eyes, BLG is a tier above FPX at the moment. Even if FPX steals a game here, I don't think it would even be that one-sided. BLG has an advantage in every role, so even if one lane were to fall behind, I trust the rest of BLG's roster to be able to make up for the lost lane. Now BLG still has some volatile players in XUN and Bin, even Elk, but if they attack FPX as they did against JDG, they could find themselves scoring well in a sweep. Give me the priciest favorites on the slate to get it done here and score well in the process.
Top BLG plays: Elk, Xun, Bin, Yagao, ALL of them
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6:00 AM: TES (-133) vs. WBG (+110)
The last matchup of the morning is a banger between two of the LPL's top teams in TES and WBG. TES has reunited Rookie with Jackeylove and is off to a 1-0 start after taking down AL yesterday morning. WBG opens their split up against TES after adding Xiaohu, Light, Crisp, and Karsa to the roster. WBG definitely upgraded their roster and TES had more of a side-grade this split, but both teams can compete domestically for a trophy. The odds are indicating a close match here, can we look at another underdog here in GPP contests?
My gut is telling me to just play TES tomorrow and let everyone else play WBG as chalk underdogs. In close lines and matchups like this, I usually like to side with the underdog, but here is a great spot for TES to do some damage. I think this game does go to three games, however, which makes me curious as to how ownership on this slate will play out tomorrow. I think WBG will be higher owned than TES tomorrow, as there are some nice lineups you can build with BLG and WBG. I will leverage the field and play the pricier team in what should be a bloody matchup, and get my value from the other series on the slate. TES is still live for a sweep here, so I would mix in full stacks as well as small stacks. If you like the WBG side tomorrow, TheShy is in the most favorable matchup on his team.
Top TES plays: Jackeylove, Rookie, Tian, Mark
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on BLG and TES for my primary stacks while sprinkling DRX and T1 for value. LPL primary stacks will generally be higher owned than LCK full stacks, so there is one way to differentiate. I think WBG will be the chalky underdog for value tomorrow, but I like to go for DRX value as a pivot in large-field contests. I like the T1 and BLG matches as the most likely to sweep tomorrow, but still love the WBG/TES game environment for kill totals tomorrow and they can get there in three close games.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are BLG/DRX, TES/DRX, and BLG/TES. T1/BLG is also another solid look if you just play DRX as a team one-off.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, I like BLG and DRX/T1 pieces for value.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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