RADIO
CURRENT ADP: 7
RANKINGS STATUS: Overvalued
ANALYSIS: Jose Abreu made a huge splash in his first MLB season, recording a robust .317 average to go along with 36 bombs. Bearing this in mind, it is easy to see how he would be a desirable Fantasy commodity heading into 2015. After all, he continues to play in a favorable park on a team that has been bolstered by the offseason acquisitions of Melky Cabrera and Adam Laroche. What's not to love?
In this age of reduced offense, Abreu's ability to pair a strong average with great power is special, perhaps a little too special. His overall BABIP was .356 in 2014, a number higher than it can be expected to be in 2015. Meanwhile, 26.9% of his flyballs left the park, a number higher than Giancarlo Stanton's 25.5% mark. Both of these numbers can be seen as indicative of a certain level of luck.
A closer look at his BABIP results by batted ball type reveals that his average should regress a little, but not by as much as might initially be assumed. Abreu's groundballs went for hits at around a league average rate (.236 compared to .239), so no correction is expected there. His flyballs were rather unlucky, dropping in for a .133 BABIP compared to the league's .207. His liners, however, represent the opposite extreme - recording a scorching .810 BABIP to the league's .685. The liners impact his average a little more than the flies, so his average should drop slightly. Still, this is the profile of a first rounder.
Abreu's power is the most interesting portion of his profile, and it was a tale of two halves. In the first half, Abreu slugged 29 HR with a .292 average and his batted ball rates were all right around league average, but his flies left the yard at a blistering 34.9% clip, which proved entirely unsustainable. Then the second half happened, and Abreu morphed into a completely different player. His liners increased to a 24.7% clip, his grounders jumped to 47.8%, and his K% dropped 5.3 points to 18.1%, rates associated with elite hitting speedsters. Since line drives typically produce the highest BABIPs, it was no surprise to see this change lead to an elevated .419 BABIP and second half batting average of .350. These improvements came at the expense of his fly balls which plummeted to a rate of 27.4%. The few flyballs he did hit no longer seemed to jump off of his bat as his HR/FB fell to 13.7%, leading to only 7 dingers for the rest of the year.
This begs the question, "Who is the real Jose Abreu?" The slugger of the first half, or the batting average specialist of the second? By selecting him in the first round, fantasy owners seem to expect that Abreu is good for both elite power and an exceptional average - but he never displayed both skills at the same time. Both Abreus are very good baseball players, but not knowing what you have in the first round makes the rest of the draft difficult. The elite power hitter that could see some average regression demands later selections that shore up the average category, while a starting first baseman with a great average that manages 15 HR for the entire season requires power throughout the rest of the roster. Until there is another full season of data, it is likely better to allow someone else to take the plunge into the unknown on draft day.
