X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

George Springer to Blue Jays - Fantasy Impact

Outfielder George Springer signed as a free agent with the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2021 MLB season. Frank Ammirante breaks down the fantasy baseball impact of this deal as Springer joins a loaded Toronto lineup.

Throughout this year's offseason, we've repeatedly heard about how the Blue Jays were interested in several marquee free agents, but weeks passed with no action. Fans grew frustrated as they watched Francisco Lindor get traded to the Mets and DJ LeMahieu re-sign with the Yankees. Doubt crept into the minds of many observers - perhaps the Blue Jays were going to struggle to sign any stars because of the uncertainty surrounding their location for the upcoming season.

On early Wednesday morning, these concerns disappeared - the Blue Jays landed one of the biggest fish in this year's free-agent market, signing George Springer to a six-year deal worth $150 million. This is a big move for a team already flush with young and talented hitters, as Springer solidifies the top of the order in this potent lineup. The addition of Springer gives the Blue Jays one of the best lineups in baseball.

So the question now becomes, how does this move affect Springer's fantasy value? In this article, we'll review Springer's 2020 season and compare it to 2019 to examine if there were any changes in approach or decline in skills. We'll also analyze his new team context with the Blue Jays to see if it has any impact on his upside for run production. Let's dive in.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2020 Review

Year PA AVG OBP SLG R HR RBI SB
2019 556 .292 .383 .591 96 39 96 6
2020 222 .265 .359 .540 37 14 32 1

Springer's surface stats were down in the shortened season. Let's take a look if this was resulting from any decline in skills or if it was due to the small sample:

Year BB% K% BABIP xBA xSLG Barrel% Max ExitVelo Z-Contact%
2019 12.1% 20.3% .305 .288 .582 12.2% 114.3 MPH 82.7%
2020 10.8% 17.1% .259 .294 .570 12.3% 115.0 MPH 85.1%

As we can see, there is nothing to worry about with Springer. His expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG) were both higher than his actual BA and SLG, while his BABIP was only .259, indicating that he had bad luck on balls in play. Springer's plate discipline and exit velocity remained in line with career norms and his zone contact (Z-Contact%) actually improved, which demonstrates that there was no evidence of a decline in skills, as he was still able to connect on pitches in the zone. In fact, if we look at his splits, we can see that he started to turn the corner in the second half:

PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB ISO wOBA
First Half 100 .200 .340 .388 4 0 .188 .322
Second Half 121 .312 .375 .651 10 1 .339 .426

Springer improved in every category in the second half of the season, demonstrating that his lower surface stats are a result of a slow start in a shortened season. It's likely that his numbers would have aligned with his career norms if it were a 162-game season.

Change in Approach?

Year GB% FB% Pull% LA°
2019 44.6% 35.7% 40.3% 10.4°
2020 35.9% 43.1% 48.0% 18.4°

It's interesting to note that Springer appeared to make a conscious effort to put the ball in the air more in 2020. His groundball rate (GB%) decreased by 8.7%, while his fly-ball rate (FB%) increased by 7.4%. He also pulled the ball at a greater rate (7.7% increase) and raised his launch angle (LA°) by eight degrees. These developments are encouraging for Springer's fantasy value because it gives him more power upside. Whether this change in approach was merely a result of a small sample or something that will stick going forward remains to be seen, but it's definitely something to monitor with optimism.

 

Team Context

The Blue Jays finished the 2020 season with a .329 wOBA (12th), 109 wRC+ (11th), and .186 ISO (10th), while the Astros put up a .311 wOBA (18th), 99 wRC+ (17th), and .168 ISO (18th). When you add Springer to a Blue Jays lineup filled with young players on upward trajectories, it's clear that this is an improved context for run production. The Jays should have one of the best lineups in baseball with Springer in the fold. Let's take a look at their projected lineup, via Roster Resource, along with home run projections from THE BAT X.

Lineup Slot Batter Home Runs
1 Springer 30
2 Biggio 22
3 Bichette 23
4 Hernandez 35
5 Guerrero Jr. 34
6 Gurriel Jr. 28
7 Tellez 27
8 Grichuk 30
9 Jansen/Kirk 15/14

As we can see here, there is power all over this lineup. There's a legitimate chance that every hitter in this lineup hits 20+ home runs. This offense is going to be explosive and Springer should score a ton of runs hitting in the leadoff spot - 120+ runs are certainly within his range of outcomes.  The team will likely look to sign a third baseman (or second baseman and move Biggio to third), as they plan on using Vlad Jr. at first base - they have been linked to Kolten Wong this offseason. Needless to say, it's likely that the Blue Jays are not done yet and we'll still see some changes to this lineup. Regardless, it projects as one of the best in baseball with as much power as any team.

Let's move on to the ballpark factors, courtesy of ESPN. We'll take a look at 2019 due to the small sample in 2020 and because the Blue Jays played in Buffalo last season.

Ballpark Overall Park Factor HR H 2B 3B
Rogers Centre 1.031 (12th) 1.317 (1st) 0.993 (17th) 0.918 (18th) 0.913 (18th)
Minute Maid Park 1.083 (7th) 1.195 (6th) 1.024 (9th) 0.866 (24th) 0.815 (20th)

Rogers Centre looks to be a slight upgrade on Minute Maid Park, grading as the top ballpark for homers in 2019. When you consider Springer's increased flyball rate in 2020, it's certainly possible that we see him approach his 2019 career-high of 39 home runs. If the Blue Jays remain in Buffalo for the upcoming season, it's good news because Sahlen Field is a bandbox.

 

2021 Outlook

THE BAT X projects Springer to slash .269/.369/.497 with 87 runs, 30 homers, 81, RBI, and six stolen bases. There's a good chance that he eclipses his runs total as the leadoff hitter for one of the best lineups in baseball. I'd also project Springer to hit closer to 40 home runs because of the changes in approach along with the opportunity to play in bandboxes like Rogers Centre, Fenway Park, Camden Yards, and Yankee Stadium.

Springer is currently being drafted as the 13th outfielder off the board at a 52 ADP in NFBC league. He offers a nice combination of floor and improved upside with the move to Toronto. I'd take Springer over Eloy Jimenez (39 ADP) without hesitation.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF