X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Five Undervalued Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets for 2024

Ryan Mountcastle fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Kev's five undervalued fantasy baseball draft sleepers and targets. These are potential sleepers, pickups, and trade targets for 2024 fantasy baseball.

With MLB's spring training coming to a close, we are rapidly approaching the regular season! Fantasy baseball drafts have been underway but carry on through opening weekend.

While nailing those top-end studs is what matters most, identifying sleepers and undervalued players is key to gaining an edge over your league mates and widening the margin for error throughout an arduous 162-game season. If you can correctly identify who to target, it might just lead you to the long-awaited title that’s eluded your grasp.

For all issues with this article, direct your concerns or complaints to @RotoSurgeon on X. With that said, here are five fantasy baseball sleepers heading into 2024.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2024 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 

Hunter Brown, SP, Houston Astros

Hunter Brown was one of the unluckiest SPs of the 2023 MLB season. His ERA of 5.09 was fifth highest in the league among pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched while his WHIP was ninth highest. Luckily, we have access to peripheral stats such as xFIP and SIERA via websites like FanGraphs, which indicate something closer to Brown and other pitchers' true value.

Between Brown's 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA, we can see that his actual skills were not as bad as his ERA. Simultaneously, Brown had the highest home run per fly ball rate in 2023 along with the highest BABIP (tied with fellow unlucky SP Dylan Cease). Both metrics have some skills-based aspect to themselves, but on the whole, the yearly league average is what we should expect them to regress toward as luck is largely in play when HR/FB and BABIP are overpolarized to one end of the spectrum or another.

Brown was still valuable in 2023 despite the egregious ratio stats. He ranked top 30 in strikeouts with 178 and finished with 11 wins. Playing on the Astros (or any top team) has its perks as even on a bad day, Brown could accrue a win if he has at least 5.0 IP. Not only that, for those in Quality Start leagues, Brown pitched at least six innings in 12 of his 29 starts! The breakout could be massive for a pitcher of his talent.

 

Bryce Miller, SP, Seattle Mariners

Over the past few seasons, the Mariners have earned themselves the worthy title of "pitching factory." Between George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, two top-30 starters were ushered into the league and immediately established. Toward the second half of last season, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo were the next crop of the Mariners' featured studs and did so well that the team sold off currently injured former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray for parts this offseason. (Bryan Woo was also a potential breakout candidate for 2024, but sadly he is dealing with elbow inflammation and will start the season on IL.)

Miller struggled against left-handed hitting last season with egregious splits in 2023.

vs. RHP:

74.2IP, .239 wOBA, 3.62 xFIP, 22.0% K-BB

vs. LHP:

56.2IP, .378 wOBA, 5.22 xFIP, 12.2% K-BB

His fastball is already one of the MLB's best and he dominated RHP last season. There is a baseline for Miller to grow and reports of his newly developed splitter could allow him to take that jump by mitigating damage against lefties. There is no guarantee Miller conquers lefties to the degree he does righties, but even so, given his relative success in 2023, even a small jump would be enough to break out as his 4.32 ERA and 1.14 WHIP were solid enough in fantasy.

 

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

Ryan Mountcastle was one of my 2023 breakout candidates, but another unfortunate year of bad luck struck. Not to mention, Mountcastle was reportedly dealing with lingering light-headedness after his IL stint, which caused the baseball to look "pea-sized" while in the batter's box.

Mountcastle has underperformed his expected wOBA (via Statcast) significantly for two straight seasons.

2022

wOBA: .316/ xwOBA: .362

2023

wOBA: .333 / xwOBA: .356

Factors such as speed affect differentials in wOBA and xwOBA when players cannot leg out the basepaths; however, the Orioles recently adjusted the dimensions of their home park Camden Yards to become more pitcher friendly, and as a consequence, significantly increased the difficulty for right-handed bats.

Nevertheless, Mountcastle has 73rd percentile sprint speed. He should be capable of not only matching his xwOBA but surpassing it! The pendulum of his luck is due to regress, and in an offense as potent and even improving as Baltimore, he could finish as a top-five first baseman given the power he possesses.

 

Tyler O'Neill, OF, Boston Red Sox

Another year, another Tyler O'Neill hype piece online! The good news is that O'Neill has already broken out and he did so in one of the toughest home parks in baseball (St. Louis). O'Neill now plays in Fenway, baseball's second-best hitter's park.

The biggest question mark with O'Neill is not his five-tool skill set, but it is his ability to stay healthy. O'Neill already dealt with a minor calf issue in spring training but returned to the lineup soon after as all of his fantasy managers exhaled a sigh of relief. In 2023, O'Neill dealt with not only back and knee issues, but a team that was frustrated with him. There was a messy divorce between the Cardinals and O'Neill, but he is now free for a fresh start with his second MLB organization.

Should we expect 34 HRs and 15 SBs like O'Neill accrued in 2021 across 138 games? Probably not given that both his wOBA and xwOBA appear as aberrations relative to the rest of his career, but he could certainly become a must-roster fantasy piece after two unlucky hitting seasons in a row akin to the aforementioned Ryan Mountcastle.

 

Jake Fraley, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Jake "Rake" Fraley saw his 2023 fantasy breakout cut short after a toe fracture suffered in early August. He returned to play in September but the injury lingered and he wound up requiring surgery in October. Fraley returned from IL in September with 15 HRs and 19 SBs yet ended the season with just 15 HRs and 21 SBs despite adding 53 plate appearances to his season total. Luckily, Fraley enters the 2024 season at full strength despite dealing with a mild groin issue in the spring.

30 MLB players posted at least 15 HRs and 20 SBs in 2023 and Jake Fraley was one of them. While this accomplishment is not the most exclusive given the newly favorable rules for stolen bases, Fraley did so in just 380 plate appearances. His upside at full strength, even as a strong-side platoon bat, is immense; yet, he is undrafted in most standard fantasy baseball leagues.

The Reds offense is improving and arguably top 10 heading into 2024 and their home park in Cincinnati is one of MLB's best for hitters. Fraley will play most days of the week and potentially build upon his strong 2023 season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59 At Corales Puntacana Championship
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For Second At Corales Puntacana Championship
Beau Hossler

Finishes Tied For 60 At Valero Texas Open
Doug Ghim

Finishes Tied For 18 At the Valero Texas Open
Jordan Spieth

Finishes Tied For 18 At RBC Heritage
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For Eighth At RBC Heritage
George Kirby

"Feeling Great", Could Throw Again On Sunday
Tyler Fitzgerald

Returning To Starting Nine
Josh Lowe

Progressing Well, Could Play In Rehab Games On Saturday
Shane McClanahan

Begins "Throwing-Like" Activities
Patrik Laine

Remains Day-To-Day
Gabriel Vilardi

On Track To Return Wednesday
Brandon Hagel

Ruled Out For Game 5
Marcus Johansson

Returns To Action Tuesday
Cole Ragans

Won't Start On Wednesday
Dylan Moore

Placed On 10-Day Injured List With Hip Inflammation
Jonas Siegenthaler

Considered A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Brett Pesce

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Back In Tuesday's Lineup
Frederik Andersen

Unavailable Tuesday
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Las Vegas Raiders

Jack Bech A Strong Candidate To Be An Immediate Starter
Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White Competing For Depth Role
New York Jets

Mason Taylor To Immediately Be Atop Jets Tight End Depth Chart
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Setting Up As Post-Hype Sleeper In 2025?
Denver Broncos

Dre Greenlaw Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold To Take Over 90% Of The Snaps
Tennessee Titans

Titans In No Rush To Trade Will Levis
Daulton Varsho

Reinstated From Injured List And Starting On Tuesday
Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy Says He Knows He's Ready To Start For Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Picking Up Fifth-Year Option On Dax Hill
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To J.K. Dobbins
Seattle Seahawks

Jaren Hall Cut Loose By Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Compare Josh Simmons To Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater
Denver Broncos

Pat Bryant Compared To Michael Thomas
Denver Broncos

RJ Harvey Could Do It All For Broncos
Carolina Panthers

Tetairoa McMillan Likely To Man The X Spot For Panthers
Green Bay Packers

Packers, Jaire Alexander Continue To Discuss Potential Reunion
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Discussed George Pickens With Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs To Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis
Washington Commanders

Matt Gays Signs One-Year Deal With Commanders
San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Signs Four-Year Extension With 49ers
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Records Third Consecutive Double-Double
Brandin Podziemski

Hits Six Treys During 26-Point Performance
Jimmy Butler III

Leads Warriors In Scoring Monday Night
Jarrett Allen

Has Double-Double, Six Steals In Blowout Win
Brandon Boston Jr.

Recovering From Ankle Surgery
Kelly Olynyk

Undergoes Heel Procedure
Aaron Nesmith

Probable For Tuesday's Action
Nathan MacKinnon

Has Two Points In Losing Effort
Martin Necas

Records Two Assists In Game 5 Loss
Mikko Rantanen

Tallies Three Points In Monday's Win
Wyatt Johnston

Leads Stars To Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Returns To Winning Ways
Anton Lundell

Earns Two Points Monday
Ryan Gerard

Going For A Texas Trifecta Of Sorts
Brandon Hagel

Departs Loss Early
Joe Highsmith

Hoping To Make More Putts In Texas
Eric Cole

Expecting Big Things In Texas
Brian Campbell

May Go Under The Radar At CJ Cup
Riley Greene

Homers Twice On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Brandon Nimmo

Has Career Game
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Tyler Glasnow

Going On The Injured List
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Luis Arraez

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Jordan Westburg

Placed On Injured List
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Luke Weaver

In Line To Get The Bulk Of Save Opportunities Moving Forward
Devin Williams

Removed From Closer Role
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Austin Hays

Smacks Two Homers On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF