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Joel Smyth examines five overvalued rookies in 2024 fantasy football leagues. Fantasy managers should be cautious of these players at their current price.
Rookie Fever: the strong urge to draft an NFL rookie in fantasy football due to the fact that you’ve spent hours upon hours researching them during the NFL Draft season. It’s the primary factor in driving up rookie prices in fantasy drafts.
In dynasty fantasy football, rookies are all the rave. The combination of youth being at utmost importance with the flashy new toy effect.
At times, this can overinflate the cost of drafting NFL rookies in redraft fantasy football for various reasons. These are the five rookies who are overvalued in 2024 fantasy football.
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Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
In dynasty fantasy football, draft, draft, draft. For season one alone, I’ll pass. Odunze’s talent is unquestioned, pushing him to an average draft position of WR42. Only a handful of NFL “WR2s” become valuable fantasy assets, with nearly all of them coming with elite quarterback play. Think Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, etc.
I love Caleb Williams; he could be on that level in Year 1. Rome Odunze isn’t even the WR2 on his team, he’s the WR3. And he is not a WR3 the way Adonai Mitchell is. Instead of a really good pair of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, the Bears have what could be the top pair in the NFL in Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. Both are elite receivers with a history of commanding volume at a top-10 level.
The main argument I come across is, “Well Keenan Allen always gets hurt.” First, banking on an injury is never a smart process. Second, there have been two wideouts in the last decade to finish better than WR20 in PPG with a rookie quarterback.
The goal of drafting a player at WR42 is not to have them become the WR41. The goal is to smash value, which I don’t see for Odunze with the volume he’s projected for.
Keenan Allen mic’d up at Bears OTA’s.
With appearances from DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. pic.twitter.com/Vd1FffpEsX— Max Markham (@MaxMarkhamNFL) July 17, 2024
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
It’s okay to be a great NFL player and not great in fantasy. Just because a player isn’t startable in fantasy doesn’t mean they aren’t talented, especially in Year 1. For Adonai Mitchell, what was a draft-day steal for the Colts became a disappointment for future fantasy managers.
At the University of Texas, Mitchell averaged only 60 yards per game. As a newcomer to the offense, still growing in development, and alongside another top talent in Xavier Worthy, the stats weren’t what got him drafted on Day 2. He finds himself in a very similar situation to start his NFL journey.
Mitchell fits a very particular role in the Indy offense. Take the top off and provide a contested-catch wideout for a young Anthony Richardson. Such a role is vital for Indianapolis while, at the same time, resulting in inconsistency in fantasy.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Colts quarterback had the lowest completion rate over expected in the NFL. Pair that with what will be bottom-5 passing volume and Mitchell won’t be able to be trustworthy week-to-week.
The Colts offense is absolutely LOADED.
QB - Anthony Richardson
RB - Jonathan Taylor
WR - Michael Pittman Jr
WR - Adonai Mitchell
WR - Josh Downs
TE - Mo Alie-Cox pic.twitter.com/IF7nagEPHD— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) June 24, 2024
Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills
Most modern-day NFL teams will have an RB more fit for the goal line and a RB more fit for the passing game. Buffalo has that receiving back in James Cook. It also has a goal-line back as well. Not Ray Davis, but Josh Allen.
After Joe Brady took over, the hope was for James Cook to get more involved in the red zone. Brady laughed at that idea, giving nine of the 11 goal-line attempts to his quarterback.
Even if Davis carves out a role in the gold area, he will likely miss out on the majority of the attempts. With scarce volume available on the ground and through the air, Davis is nothing more than a shot-in-the-dark handcuff option.
JOSH ALLEN TUSH PUSH pic.twitter.com/E07Jy82Tds
— Trainwreck Sports (@TrainwreckSprts) December 31, 2023
Malachi Corley, WR, New York Jets
Every year, like clockwork, college wideouts will be comped to one man by draft experts. Deebo Samuel Sr. I’ll tell you why this keeps happening. Because Deebo is the only one of his breed to work. It would be weird to compare a college player to Laviska Shenault Jr. now that we’ve seen his career play out. Yards after the catch gadget heroes are usually just that: gadget guys. Deebo’s wide variety of skills allows him to break through that while still being the poster boy for NFL comps.
Corley, in college, did not come with a multitude of abilities. Since 2022, Corley led the country in missed tackles forced and yards after the catch. However, over half of his production came on screen passes alone. That has never resulted in fantasy success, particularly when you’re a rookie trying to command targets from Aaron Rodgers.
Malachi Corley is one of the biggest screen merchants in NCAA history; a glorified RB in a RB's build https://t.co/msqTvWGURy pic.twitter.com/TYVUnnJ6NK
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 27, 2024
Roman Wilson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Can you name the Falcons WR2 in the Arthur Smith offense? I couldn’t...and I do this for a living.
Mack Hollins. 251 yards in 2023, the second most of the Atlanta position group. My Road to Glory player just had that in one game versus Michigan. This has nothing to do with Roman Wilson’s talent. The Arthur Smith offense just has a high tendency to do three things: run the ball, throw to tight ends, and throw to running backs. Pittsburgh’s rookie wideout success matters a whole lot less when the offense subdues any importance their role may have had.
At best, Wilson would be fourth in target volume (behind George Pickens, Jaylen Warren, and Pat Freiermuth) with a mess of a quarterback situation. Don’t submit yourself to voluntary torture by drafting an Arthur Smith role player.
🚨 Offensive Play Caller Rankings 🚨
Exhibit A of why I think Mike McDaniel should be COY.
Ben Johnson is a hot head coaching candidate for a reason.
Shane Waldron should be getting interview requests over Bobby Slowik and Dave Canales. pic.twitter.com/Pz8QjQ4AIO
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) January 11, 2024
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