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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 15 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Death, taxes, and quarterback injuries have become the three things guaranteed in life. The madness continued with Justin Herbert as the latest big-name signal-caller to go down, which has a huge impact on the Chargers and the outlook for their offense. Fortunately, there were a couple of fantastic games, including the Ravens versus the Rams, that yielded all sorts of fantasy goodness. It's the first week of the fantasy playoffs in most leagues, making it a critical time of year. The NFL schedule shifts towards including Saturday games, so keep an eye out for those. Thankfully the bye weeks are officially over, meaning we have access to every healthy player in our lineups.
For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate and the Monday Night Football game, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice some players are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included in the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, rbsdm, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Fantasy Life, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, your starting QB is still intact and earned you another win. Regardless of how Week 14 went, Week 15 is a chance for a fresh start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024 fantasy football drafts:- Fantasy football draft rankings (all positions)
- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Fantasy football rookie rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
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- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
Matchups Analysis - Saturday Games
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -3.5
Implied Total: Vikings (18.5) vs. Bengals (22)
Pace: Vikings (6th) vs. Bengals (30th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 12.2% Pass (17th), -20.5% Rush (30th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 17.3% Pass (15th), -5.0% Rush (17th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: -4.7% Pass (7th), -16.1% Rush (5th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 8.9% Pass (17th), 1.0% Rush (27th)
Matchups We Love:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
The offense's identity has shifted with Joe Burrow sidelined, particularly during the past two weeks where they've run the ball 31 and 32 times, compared to 39 and 25 passing attempts. It's allowed both Mixon and Chase Brown to coexist. Brown took a short screen pass 54 yards to the house. He finished with 11 touches, but that didn't stop Mixon from having 24 of his own. Additionally, Mixon had six rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, one of which he scored on, compared to none for Brown, while the targets were four to three in favor of Mixon. Brown's contributions to the offense are not impacting Mixon's. It'll be a tougher matchup this week, but he remains a top-15 back with Brown as an upside flex option.
Ty Chandler (RB, MIN)
Alexander Mattison was leading the backfield in touches again before suffering an ankle injury. It opened the door for Chandler, who handled 15 touches. The output wasn't great but when the offense, which is dealing with injuries to their O-line, barely cracks 200 yards, no one is going to perform. The Bengals rank 26th in EPA per rush allowed, 27th in defensive run DVOA, and 30th in rushing yards per attempt allowed. With Mattison out, it makes Chandler a solid flex option with top-24 upside if the offense shows up.
Matchups We Hate:
Jake Browning (QB, CIN)
Browning has been balling out, scoring with his arm and legs for the past two weeks. He's capitalized on the screen passes and easy matchups. Unfortunately, he now gets the Vikings, who've been the sixth-toughest matchup for quarterbacks over the past six weeks. He's a desperation streamer.
Other Matchups:
Vikings WRs
After what seemed like the offense hit rock bottom in Week 12 against the Bears, they lowered the bar a few more notches in a pitiful 3-0 win over the Raiders. They were forced to bench Joshua Dobbs, who struggled, turning to Nick Mullens. Mullens has since been named the starter for Week 15, which is more of a neutral move at this point. Justin Jefferson returned just long enough to tease fantasy managers before taking a huge hit across the middle of the field. He was ruled out and taken to the hospital with a chest injury. He returned to practice and is listed as questionable for Saturday's game. If he's out there, he'll be tough to bench but his ceiling is capped by the offense and his risk of re-injury exists. It's best to avoid Jordan Addison at this point.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
Hockenson managed to salvage some value, hauling in five passes for 53 yards. He's the No. 1 option when Jefferson is out and No. 2 when he's in, so he remains a top-12 tight end, but the elite upside has evaporated.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
With the backfield earning a 28% target share and no one exceeding four targets, it was a rough day for Chase. Part of it was the positive game script they had in the second half, but despite the success Jake Browning has had, the ceiling is still lower for Chase with him at the helm. He'll be more volatile but remains a top-20 receiver against an improved Minnesota defense. Tee Higgins remains a riskier flex option.
Injuries:
Justin Jefferson (chest)
Alexander Mattison (ankle)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts -1.5
Implied Total: Steelers (20.25) vs. Colts (21.75)
Pace: Steelers (19th) vs. Colts (3rd)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 5.4% Pass (21st), -1.6% Rush (11th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 7.3% Pass (20th), 0.5% Rush (8th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: -1.7% Pass (8th), -13.5% Rush (11th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 2.4% Pass (11th), -1.5% Rush (26th)
Matchups We Love:
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman keeps tearing it up week after week. Even when the offense sputters somewhat as it did against the Bengals, he still earns 10-plus targets and totals 90-plus yards. Additionally, what was once a two-headed monster with him and Josh Downs is now a one-man band. The next highest target total was actually Will Mallory with five, which tells you all you need to know about the secondary options. Pittman is a top-15 receiver with Downs, who gets a juicy slot matchup against Pittsburgh, and Alec Pierce, hard to trust.
Steelers RBs
It was a night to forget for Pittsburgh, who has now dropped two straight games they should've won easily. Mitch Trubisky has proven to be a downgrade compared to Kenny Pickett, and he'll get the nod again in this one. Neither Najee Harris nor Jaylen Warren had much success on the ground against New England, but that's to be expected. Warren did haul in four passes for 29 yards while Harris caught three for 19. The Colts are a much better matchup, which should help these two and the offense as a whole produce. They're both flex options with Warren as the favorite because of his explosiveness and receiving ability.
Matchups We Hate:
Gardner Minshew (QB, IND)
Minshew continues to be an average NFL quarterback and an okay streamer with occasional spike weeks. Last week was not one of them because he only threw for one touchdown. While the Steelers did give up three touchdowns to Bailey Zappe last Thursday, it's not been a favorable matchup for signal-callers. He's in the risky streamer tier.
Other Matchups:
Zack Moss (RB, IND)
The frustration with Moss's production persists. Once again, he had a dominant workload with all but two RB carries and all but one RB target. His eight targets did result in four catches for 28 yards, but failing to find the end zone on both his rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line after doing so with such consistency all year is tough. As a caveat, he did have a touchdown called back. The usage is elite, so he remains a top-15 back, but it's getting more difficult to play him ahead of other great tailbacks.
Steelers WRs
Diontae Johnson managed to find pay dirt for the second time this year, which is two more than in 2022. It boosted his otherwise mediocre stat line of three for 57. George Pickens was more involved with five grabs but only 19 yards. It's hard to get too excited about this duo with Trubisky leading the way. On the road in Indy, Johnson is a flex option.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
The volume was there with seven targets, but three receptions for 18 yards is not ideal. It's a decent matchup, so he's still a streamer, but the floor is very low.
Injuries:
Kenny Pickett (ankle)
Jonathan Taylor (thumb)
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -4.5
Implied Total: Broncos (21.75) vs. Lions (26.25)
Pace: Broncos (25th) vs. Lions (15th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 14.7% Pass (16th), -1.2% Rush (10th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 22.5% Pass (13th), 7.9% Rush (4th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 10.4% Pass (20th), 7.2% Rush (31st)
Lions Def. DVOA: 9.8% Pass (19th), -15.4% Rush (7th)
Matchups We Love:
Lions RBs
The Lions struggled early before scoring 13 points in the second quarter to take the lead. One of those touchdowns came from Jahmyr Gibbs for the first time in three weeks. Unfortunately, that was it for their point total, allowing the Bears to score 18 straight and win by 15. It took David Montgomery off the field more, limiting him to just 35% of the snaps. He still totaled 85 scrimmage yards with three receptions, so it wasn't a complete bust. The game script is key to determining which of these two will see more snaps. Against Denver, who has won six of their last seven, it's hard to know how this contest will unfold. We know the Lions are a better team at home, so the edge goes to Montgomery this week, but both are in the top 24.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
After scorching the earth two weeks ago, LaPorta disappeared last week, much of which can be attributed to Jared Goff's poor outing. Fortunately, he still had six targets and now gets the Broncos, who are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends in the past six weeks.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Detroit's defense keeps bleeding points, especially against the pass. If there's one player you can count on to score, it's Sutton, who made another incredible touchdown catch. He and Russell Wilson have amazing chemistry right now. You know the deal, if he doesn't score, it won't be great, but it's hard to overlook him this week.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
Despite 15 targets in the past two weeks, St. Brown has just five receptions for 70 yards. He did find the end zone two weeks ago, but it's a little concerning. Returning home is a positive, but facing off against the Broncos secondary, led by Patrick Surtain II, is a tough spot. Fortunately, they move him all around the formation, so he's still an elite wideout, but his catch rate (70% on the year) needs to rebound for him to hit those top-12 numbers. Josh Reynolds scored a touchdown this week and remains the most appealing flex option of this group, assuming he plays as he's listed as questionable.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Road Goff is always risky. Road Goff with cold weather is even worse. In hindsight, it was predictable that he would fail to deliver, although he was underwhelming even by those standards. It sets up as a bounce-back spot at home, but it's a tougher matchup and his recent performances are hard to overlook. Their center Frank Ragnow was out last week, which also impacted Goff's comfort level. He's back at practice, so Goff slots in as a streamer.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
Williams led the way against the Chargers with 20 total touches for nearly 100 yards and a touchdown. They led from wire to wire, enabling them to pound the rock 31 times. It also meant less Samaje Perine, who still had five targets. Williams is destined for a timeshare, but that's okay if the game script cooperates. The one area where the Lions are still slowing opponents down is on the ground, so he drops a few spots this week but remains a top-24 back. Additionally, if you presume the Lions will be winning, then betting on Perine to haul in four to six passes late makes sense.
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
Wilson is playing very well from an NFL perspective and above average from a fantasy lens. He's finished as the QB15 or better each of the last three weeks, making him a potential streamer considering the plethora of injuries and the matchup.
Injuries:
Greg Dulcich (leg)
Josh Reynolds (back)
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Falcons -3.0
Implied Total: Falcons (18.25) vs. Panthers (15.25)
Pace: Falcons (5th) vs. Panthers (9th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 0.7% Pass (23rd), -5.4% Rush (18th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -28.2% Pass (32rd), -16.2% Rush (27th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 20.0% Pass (30th), -13.4% Rush (12th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 7.2% Pass (15th), 10.7% Rush (32nd)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have rain and moderate wind, which could further encourage two run-centric teams to pound the rock more.
Matchups We Love:
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
The Falcons came out on the losing end of an offensive explosion against the Buccaneers. They generated over 400 yards of offense and scored 25 points, but their defense let them down. With that level of offensive output, it was a great day for everyone, including Robinson, who scored on the ground and caught five passes for 54 yards through the air. Fire him up in a juicy matchup against the Panthers. Tyler Allgeier carried the ball nine times and will likely hit or exceed that mark this week in a positive game script, so he's a flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Panthers Passing Attack
Bryce Young had another abysmal performance, which has become the norm. He completed 36% of his passes, took four sacks, and threw for 137 yards. Adam Thielen did show signs of life with five grabs for 74 yards, but it feels risky to trust him in your playoff matchup. He and Jonathan Mingo, who earned nine targets but only caught two, are desperation flex options.
Other Matchups:
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
The Panthers ran the ball 39 times, three more than they passed, in a game they trailed by double digits for the final three quarters. It's safe to say they've given up on their passing attack. It's good news for Hubbard, who toted the rock 23 times for 87 yards and had two receptions. Despite giving up 158 yards on the ground last week, the Falcons are difficult to run against, so Hubbard drops near the bottom of the top 24. Miles Sanders also had 10 carries for 74 yards, but it's best not to chase that production.
Drake London (WR, ATL)
As mentioned above, everyone had a fantastic fantasy day. London went off against Tampa Bay's vulnerable secondary, hauling in 10 passes for 172 yards. It was awesome to see after so many down weeks this season. While it's tempting to buy into last's week sample, much of that has to do with the ineptitude of the defense they faced. London takes on the Panthers, who aren't a scary matchup, but are so easy to run it against that teams rarely need to throw. He stays in the top 36.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
We called out the perfect matchup last week, but it's not as ideal this week for the same reasons discussed for London. Pitts is always capable of a solid game, but this likely isn't the time to bet on it.
Injuries:
Hayden Hurst (concussion)
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -3.0
Implied Total: Bears (17.5) vs. Browns (20.5)
Pace: Bears (31st) vs. Browns (10th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -0.2% Pass (24th), -2.7% Rush (13th)
Browns Off. DVOA: -8.9% Pass (27th), -6.9% Rush (20th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 12.2% Pass (24th), -14.4% Rush (10th)
Browns Def. DVOA: -23.7% Pass (1st), -17.3% Rush (3rd)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have rain and mild to moderate wind, which could impact the passing attacks.
Matchups We Love:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
The offense is building their game around Fields and his rushing ability. He's seeing an increase in designing runs, plus he's taking shots downfield. He ran 12 times for 58 yards and a score, which offers a nice baseline of production. While Cleveland's defense is legit, they've been gashed by signal-callers in their past three outings, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points during that stretch. It's possible Fields falters, but it's hard to see him busting so long as he continues to run.
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE)
Ford had 17 touches for 82 scoreless yards while Kareem Hunt found the end zone again. The two are splitting work, but Ford has been the preferred option in the passing game, which is valuable. Chicago's defense has looked a lot better, but they're still susceptible on the ground, allowing the seventh-most yards per rushing attempt over the past three weeks. At home as favorites to win, Ford remains a top-24 back with Hunt as a flex-level back.
Matchups We Hate:
Bears RBs
The three-way committee played out about as expected. D'Onta Foreman handled the most work on the ground, Khalil Herbert served as his direct backup, and Roschon Johnson operated as their receiving back. What was unexpected was the beatdown they put on Detroit, removing the need to air it out. While Foreman is the best bet, none of these three are trustworthy with a playoff spot on the line given the matchup.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Kmet made a nice play on a 41-yard catch but went just four for 26 outside of that. The Browns have been really tough on tight ends, except Evan Engram last week, so Kmet drops into the streaming tier with a lower floor.
Other Matchups:
DJ Moore (WR, CHI)
Moore with Fields equals fantasy success. He opened the scoring with a rushing touchdown before adding a receiving touchdown later on. He also hit double-digit targets again. Martin Emerson Jr. shut down Calvin Ridley last week, and the team is hoping to get Denzel Ward back this week, but given his versatility and volume, there's no need to move off of him.
UPDATE: Moore practiced in full on Friday and is listed as questionable. He seems likely to suit up.
Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)
Cooper was questionable to play entering Sunday. Not only he did suit up, but he earned a whopping 14 targets. It's a good thing he had so many because he only caught half, but did rack up 77 yards. Joe Flacco may attempt 45 passes again this week, but as discussed earlier, the Bears have been a bottom-10 matchup for receivers over the past six weeks. He'll be the clear-cut No. 1 receiver but drops outside the top 24. Elijah Moore is too risky as the No. 2 receiver to start.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Njoku did his best to keep pace with Engram in the battle of the tight ends. He finished with six receptions for 91 yards and two touchdowns. It was an incredible stat line, but it's hard to envision him coming anywhere near that this week. That being said, the matchup is decent and Flacco has a tendency to use his tight end, so he's still in the top 12 as long as he's out there because he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee/rest designation.
Injuries:
DJ Moore (ankle)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -3.5
Implied Total: Buccaneers (19.5) vs. Packers (23)
Pace: Buccaneers (12th) vs. Packers (14th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 11.3% Pass (18th), -15.4% Rush (26th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 28.3% Pass (7th), -11.5% Rush (23rd)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 9.1% Pass (18th), -11.1% Rush (16th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 14.5% Pass (26th), -1.7% Rush (25th)
Matchups We Love:
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
White gashed a stout Atlanta defense for 102 yards on a career-high 25 carries. He also took another short pass to the house, this time for 31 yards. He's been unstoppable regardless of the matchup, so against the Packers' poor run defense, he's a must-start.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
The tables turned in Week 14 for Evans and Chris Godwin, which means A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah deserve some credit for capping his production. Evans was inches away from a touchdown, but his hand came down out of bounds before his second foot. Meanwhile, Godwin went five for 55 on 11 targets, which is the most since they faced Atlanta seven weeks ago, coincidentally. Evans will take on Jaire Alexander this week, but he's been too good to bench. Godwin's volume is likely a one-off, plus he's missing practice with a knee injury, so he remains a flex option with limited upside if he's active.
UPDATE: Godwin practiced in full on Friday and is listed as questionable. He should play but he's one to tread cautiously with.
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
It appears the hype for Love went a little too far. The Giants blitz at the fourth-highest rate of any team this year, which proved to be a successful strategy. It caused Love to make errant throws and commit two turnovers. Fortunately, the Buccaneers rank 30th in that category, so he should have plenty of time to make good decisions and dissect their beatable secondary. He's a top-12 signal-caller.
Jayden Reed (WR, GB)
Reed is quickly establishing himself as a reliable multi-talented weapon. He ran the ball four times for 38 yards and a score to pair with eight receptions for 27 yards. Everything is close to the line of scrimmage, but usage is awesome. Romeo Doubs earned seven targets but only caught four, partially because of the incompletions from Love we spoke about above. With Christian Watson set to miss again due to his hamstring injury and Dontayvion Wicks nursing an ankle injury, Reed is solidified in the top 24 with Doubs in the top 36.
UPDATE: Watson missed practice and listed is doubtful, meaning he'll almost certainly be out. Wicks has practiced and is listed as questionable, but he'd be riskier than usual with the injury.
Matchups We Hate:
Packers RB
Their backfield is a mess right now. Aaron Jones missed last week again with a knee injury while AJ Dillon is dealing with a broken thumb that might keep him out. It's possible one, none, or both are out there on Sunday. Although Patrick Taylor would be the next man up, it's also a boost for Reed, who we know they'll use out of the backfield. At this point, it's best to search for other options, especially with Jamel Dean and Devin White set to return for the Buccaneers, but we'll get more clarity over the weekend.
UPDATE: Both Jones and Dillon practiced on Friday and are listed as questionable. It's difficult to decipher this one. We'll need to wait for more clarity over the weekend, but it's wise to have pivot options prepared.
Other Matchups:
Tucker Kraft (TE, GB)
Kraft made the most of his four targets, catching 100% of them for 64 yards. The offense is missing weapons and the matchup is fantastic, so he's worth considering as a streamer.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
Mayfield led an impressive comeback to move his squad into first place in the NFC South. At 6-7, that's more of an indictment on the rest of the division, but that's a whole other conversation. Even though Green Bay lost, they still held Tommy Devito to 158 passing yards. Nevertheless, Mayfield is a capable streamer given his weapons and experience.
Injuries:
Aaron Jones (knee)
Luke Musgrave (kidney)
Christian Watson (hamstring)
AJ Dillon (thumb)
Dontayvion Wicks (ankle)
Chris Godwin (knee)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -9.0
Implied Total: Jets (14) vs. Dolphins (23)
Pace: Jets (13th) vs. Dolphins (27th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -20.3% Pass (31st), -30.4% Rush (32nd)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 38.7% Pass (3rd), 19.9% Rush (2nd)
Jets Def. DVOA: -17.7% Pass (3rd), -12.7% Rush (15th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 3.7% Pass (13th), -6.5% Rush (20th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have moderate wind, which could impact the passing attacks.
Matchups We Love:
Dolphins RBs
We hadn't seen a competitive game with both backs healthy. The Titans made a miraculous comeback late to steal a victory and kept it close for most of the night. Raheem Mostert dominated on the ground with 21 rushing attempts for 92 yards and two touchdowns while De'Von Achane had nine targets, hauling in five of them for 24 yards. When push comes to shove, the offense still prefers to lean on Mostert, especially as a runner, which is helpful to know. They should find plenty of success pounding the rock against the Jets, locking Mostert in with Achane as a top-15 back, so long as he plays because he's been missing practice with a toe injury. Jeff Wilson Jr. would be the backup and a potential flex option if Achane is inactive.
UPDATE: Achane is ACTIVE vs. Jets
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Dolphins WRs
If ever there was ever an experiment to test the importance of Tyreek Hill, we got it on Monday night. The Dolphins were cruising early until Hill suffered an ankle injury. He was sidelined for the remainder of the first half, resulting in zero points for Miami. He then returned in the second half to help them retake the lead, which they did by scoring 20 points. He's the engine of the offense. Jaylen Waddle is an excellent No. 2 receiver, but he's not the same caliber of player as Hill. Despite missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, Hill is committed to being out there so you're going to have to play him unless you have unworldly options to pivot to. It's not a great spot for Waddle as the Jets have an elite secondary, but he's in the top 24.
UPDATE: Hill is INACTIVE vs. Jets
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tagovailoa is becoming increasingly risky given the difficult matchup and Hill's injury. It's not just last week either. Since returning from their bye, he's been outside the top 20 twice with finishes of QB9 and QB10 in the other two weeks. He's still in the top 12 with so few reliable options, but he's at the back end of that range.
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
While the usage for Hall was mostly the same, the production was exceptional, largely due to the Texans losing their entire offense and falling apart. When the other team generates 73 yards of offense, you're going to be able to destroy them because you get short fields and tons of possessions. Hall didn't do a whole lot on the ground, but crushed them through the air with eight receptions for 86 yards and a score. You can pencil him in for about 10 carries and seven receptions, which makes him a top-24 back.
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
Credit to Zach Wilson for balling out in the second half of a scoreless game. It's almost certainly a product of the injuries Houston suffered, but maybe it carries over to this week. The last time these two teams met, Miami massacred them, which forced New York to throw constantly late in the game. It led to a receiving touchdown for Wilson to save his day. Jalen Ramsey presents a tough matchup, but they were just roasted by DeAndre Hopkins for 124 yards and a touchdown, so Wilson is still in play here as a top-24 receiver.
Injuries:
Salvon Ahmed (foot)
Tyreek Hill (ankle) - INACTIVE
De'Von Achane (toe) - ACTIVE
Aaron Rodgers (Achilles)
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -5.5
Implied Total: Giants (16.75) vs. Saints (22.25)
Pace: Giants (16th) vs. Saints (11th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -19.8% Pass (30th), -21.6% Rush (31st)
Saints Off. DVOA: 3.0% Pass (22nd), -2.1% Rush (12th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 5.9% Pass (14th), 3.1% Rush (29th)
Saints Def. DVOA: 1.5% Pass (9th), -1.8% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara found the end zone, but the usage was lower because they won easily, removing the need for his checkdowns. Additionally, with Taysom Hill out, they handed his 11 carries to Jamaal Williams instead of piling onto Kamara's touches. They are heavy home favorites, so the receiving upside is a bit lower this week, but it's unlikely they'll win by 20-plus points again. As for Williams, he'll have some touchdown upside if Hill is out, but there are better flex options this week.
UPDATE: Williams is listed as questionable, which would be good news for Kamara and Hill if he's out.
Taysom Hill (TE, NO)
After missing practice all of last week and eventually being ruled out, Hill is back at practice, which is a promising sign. His versatility combined with the injuries to the skill position players make him a top-10 tight end even against the Giants, who are a tougher matchup with an aggressive defense.
UPDATE: Hill is all set to return on Sunday, making him a solid tight end option given his versatility, especially if Williams is out.
Chris Olave (WR, NO)
Olave entered the game with an illness, resulting in fewer snaps than Lynn Bowden Jr. and just two more than A.T. Perry. Certainly, the fact that they were hammering the Panthers influenced his participation. He saved his day with a short touchdown grab, but it wasn't the output fantasy managers have become accustomed to as of late. No one in New York's secondary scares you, so he's back in the top 24, but he has been missing practice with an ankle injury and we'll need to keep an eye out for his designation on Friday. Meanwhile, Rashid Shaheed is at practice but was absent last week, so we'll need more information for him as well.
UPDATE: Olave missed practice all week and is listed as questionable. It looks like he will be out, but we'll get an official status on Sunday. Shaheed is good to go, but the risk is higher with Carr missing weapons.
Matchups We Hate:
Giants Passing Attack
DeVito has become a local hero by reeling off three straight wins. He also has an agent who looks like he works for Al Capone, which adds to the allure. Nevertheless, he manufactured enough successful drives, committed zero turnovers, didn't take a sack, and used his legs to convert third downs. The overall output wasn't great, though. Wan'Dale Robinson led the way with six catches for 79 yards while Isaiah Hodgins found the end zone, but trusting any pass-catchers against the Saints is risky. Darren Waller has been activated off injured reserve and would be an upside streaming option if he suits up.
UPDATE: Waller is good to go and will be a steamer on Sunday.
Other Matchups:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
The one thing DeVito's emergence has done is increase the floor and ceiling for Barkley, who scored twice on the ground. He entered the game with just one rushing touchdown, so it was nice to see him deliver. He also finished second in targets and receptions, keeping him involved when the game script turns negative. New Orleans has softened against the run over the past six weeks, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to tailbacks. They've also allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per attempt in the past three weeks, making Barkley a top-12 back.
Derek Carr (QB, NO)
Carr took advantage of the hard work the defense did, tossing two touchdowns, but he only attempted 26 passes for 119 yards. This game figures to be a little more competitive, but his chemistry with his teammates is off and he doesn't look healthy. He's still a streamer because of his weapons, but his ceiling takes a hit with the overall health and morale of the offense.
Injuries:
Michael Thomas (knee)
Kendre Miller (ankle)
Chris Olave (ankle)
Jamaal Williams (groin)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -3.5
Implied Total: Texans (17.25) vs. Titans (19.75)
Pace: Texans (8th) vs. Titans (28th)
Texans Off. DVOA: 30.3% Pass (6th), -20.0% Rush (28th)
Titans Off. DVOA: 8.2% Pass (19th), -2.8% Rush (15th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 16.1% Pass (28th), -13.0% Rush (13th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 19.4% Pass (29th), -16.5% Rush (4th)
WEATHER: This game has a chance for showers and light wind, but there shouldn't be any impact.
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
We anticipated the Titans being down early, resulting in a negative game script that favors Tyjae Spears, and for a short while that was true. Then the Titans took the lead briefly before being down again. The Dolphins stormed back, forcing them to air it out again before a game-winning touchdown from Henry thanks to a defensive penalty near the end zone. In the end, Henry plunged forward for two scores but had just 34 rushing yards and one reception for 17 yards. Meanwhile, Spears earned eight targets during their two-minute drill drives, finishing with six receptions for 89 yards.
A lot in this matchup depends on the status of C.J. Stroud for obvious reasons. It currently seems like he will be out, which means Davis Mills would get the nod. In that scenario, the Titans should be able to keep it close by pounding the rock, which means Henry moves into the top 15 with Spears as a flex option. If Stroud does play, then Henry drops to the top 20 with Spears closer to the top 24.
UPDATE: The Texans are going with Case Keenum, which is a slight upgrade but doesn't change the outlook for Henry and Spears.
Matchups We Hate:
Texans Passing Attack
After losing Tank Dell in Week 13, Nico Collins re-aggravated his calf injury in Week 14. That's on top of Dalton Schultz, who sat out with a hamstring injury. Schultz is practicing in full, so he should be back, but neither Collins nor Stroud has made it back yet. If they're down to Noah Brown, Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie III catching passes from Mills, it's going to be really hard to throw anyone in your lineup with confidence.
UPDATE: After missing practice all week Stroud is listed as doubtful and Collins is listed as questionable. The odds are that they're both out, which means Keenum at QB and would make Schultz a streamer with Brown, who is also questionable, and Woods as volume-based flex options.
Other Matchups:
Devin Singletary (RB, HOU)
Singletary took back the starting role against the Jets, playing more snaps, seeing more carries, earning a higher target share, and getting all the goal-line attempts. As a result, he rushed for 65 yards and a score. The offense had an abysmal day, so there wasn't much more he could do. Finishing with zero receptions wasn't ideal though. Tennessee is no longer a matchup to fear on the ground, they've been giving up more rushing touchdowns, which has equated to more points for opposing tailbacks. That being said, missing Stroud would lower the ceiling for the offense and make Singletary a flex option with Dameon Pierce on your bench.
Titans Passing Attack
Will Levis made some accurate deep throws to lead his team to victory. The final output was 327 yards and one touchdown through the air with 15 more yards on the ground. What was particularly impressive was Hopkins's stat line of 7/124/1 despite drawing plenty of coverage from Jalen Ramsey. It's also worth mentioning Chigoziem Okonkwo, who hauled in five passes for 46 yards. As mentioned above, they should find success and defeat the Texans without Stroud, making Hopkins a top-30 wideout in a revenge game with Okonkwo a high-end streamer in a plus matchup.
Injuries:
Dalton Schultz (hamstring)
C.J. Stroud (concussion)
Nico Collins (calf)
Noah Brown (knee)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Spread: Chiefs -8.0
Implied Total: Chiefs (22.5) vs. Patriots (14.5)
Pace: Chiefs (20th) vs. Patriots (7th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 34.9% Pass (4th), 0.1% Rush (9th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -9.1% Pass (28th), -6.7% Rush (19th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -9.2% Pass (5th), 3.5% Rush (30th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 11.5% Pass (21st), -19.9% Rush (1st)
WEATHER: This game may have rain and is expected to have moderate wind, but the concern is still minimal for now.
Matchups We Love:
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Much has been made about the offensive offside penalty that resulted in a touchdown being called back. It seemed to be the tipping point for Patrick Mahomes and Co., who lost their cool and failed to earn another first down after that play. Kelce deserves a ton of credit for his ingenuity on the lateral, which furthered his legendary status. He bounced back with a solid game, featuring six grabs for 83 yards. It would've been more if his catch stood, but he's a must-start in the playoffs.
Matchups We Hate:
Patriots Passing Attack
Bailey Zappe had a career day throwing for three touchdowns in the first quarter. Unfortunately, that was all the points the offense could muster. The Chiefs are going to be hungry for a win and their defense is the one unit still playing at a Super Bowl level. It means Zappe will fall back to earth and the passing attack is not a group to take chances with. Demario Douglas would be the one flex option to consider, but he's still in the concussion protocol currently.
UPDATE: Douglas has cleared the concussion protocol and is good to go for Sunday. He's a top-36 receiver with a higher floor.
Other Matchups:
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, NE)
Elliot took the crown last week as king of the checkdowns, a title usually reserved for Rachaad White. He was okay on the ground with 68 yards on 22 carries, but hauling in seven passes for 72 yards and a touchdown is extraordinary. The odds of repeating those numbers are slim to none, but the negative game script and vulnerability of the Kansas City run defense positions him for another big day. He's such a focal point of the offense that he needs to be viewed as a top-20 back with top-12 upside based on volume.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes's frustration boiled over and he took it out on everyone in sight from the referees to Josh Allen to the reporters. He eventually cooled off and apologized the next day, but it's indicative of the discontentment brewing in this group. Traveling to Foxborough where Bill Belichick will undoubtedly do his best to take away Kelce, it's going to be a difficult matchup. There are so few players he can rely on that not having Kelce open to hyper-target could be an issue. He finished as the QB20 last week and has a realistic chance to finish outside the top 10 again.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
As the Robin to Kelce, who is Batman, Rice has been answering the bell. He has seven or more receptions in each of the past three weeks with two touchdowns while averaging about 81 yards per game. Furthermore, he played the most snaps of any wideout for the third straight week with a season-high of 85% last week. He's become a dependable top-24 receiver with a decent matchup against the Patriots.
Chiefs RBs
Andy Reid was true to his word. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the starter, handling 13 touches, including 11 carries. However, as anticipated, Jerick McKinnon made a bigger impact as a receiver and found the end zone. He also ran more routes, played all the long-distance-downs snaps, and had all the attempts inside the five among RBs. It's fair to project the Chiefs to establish a lead and want to run the ball, but that hasn't been an easy feat against New England, who is allowing the fewest yards per rushing attempt, ranks No. 1 in EPA per rush allowed, and is giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs the past six weeks. That makes McKinnon the better bet because they'll use him as a receiver more frequently and he'll be the go-to at the goal line. Both are flex options with the edge to McKinnon, assuming Isiah Pacheco, who has yet to practice, is ruled out.
UPDATE: Pacheco has been ruled out as expected.
Injuries:
Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle)
Mecole Hardman Jr. (thumb)
Isiah Pacheco (shoulder)
Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: 49ers -12.0
Implied Total: 49ers (30) vs. Cardinals (18)
Pace: 49ers (32nd) vs. Cardinals (2nd)
49ers Off. DVOA: 68.7% Pass (1st), 16.7% Rush (3rd)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -6.2% Pass (26th), -2.7% Rush (14th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -12.3% Pass (4th), -10.8% Rush (17th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 23.1% Pass (31st), 2.4% Rush (28th)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
It was one of those games where McCaffrey dominated but left you wanting more because everyone kept stealing his touchdowns. He opened the game with a huge 72-yard run, which forced him to come out for a play to rest, allowing Jordan Mason to score. Later in the game, he ran it down to the one-yard line where Deebo Samuel took it into the end zone on a jet sweep. It was also a game where they didn't need him as a receiver because he gashed the Seahawks for 145 yards on the ground. He'll more than likely put one in the end zone this week against the Cardinals.
UPDATE: Elijah Mitchell is out again this week, making Mason a potential flex option because they're double-digit favorites and it's a great matchup.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Arizona's defense is very bad in all facets. The bye week may have helped, but Purdy is playing on another level right now. He averaged 13.6 yards per attempt last week, which is outrageous. Lock him into your lineup with a chance to go nuclear here.
49ers WRs
All four of their skill position players produced a play for 40-plus yards, including Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel was a monster again with 150 total yards and two scores while Aiyuk caught six passes for 126 yards. It's hard to envision benching either of them this week.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle made sure to get in on the action with a 44-yard house call. He just keeps crushing it, so despite what's been a tougher matchup this season for tight ends, he's a must-start as well.
Matchups We Hate:
James Conner (RB, ARI)
The last time we saw the Cardinals was in Week 13 when Kenny Pickett got hurt and the Steelers collapsed. It enabled them to hand the ball off to Conner 25 times for 102 yards and two scores. It helped that Emari Demercado got injured, removing one of the three backs from the equation. The revenge game narrative proved true but he finished with zero receptions, which has been an issue at times. If Demercado, who has been practicing, is back, it could be a tough day for Conner against the San Francisco defense, even with a few of their starters out. He falls outside the top 24.
UPDATE: Demeraco is active, which takes away some of the receiving upside for Conner.
Cardinals WRs
Marquise Brown put up a goose egg thanks to a heel injury in Week 13, which was a real gut punch for anyone who took a chance on him. He's back at practice, signaling a potential return, but starting him would take some real courage. Michael Wilson is also working his way back. He's someone to feel a little more confident about because he's been a focal point when healthy. Neither is wise to get too excited about, but Wilson is in the flex range.
UPDATE: Brown and Wilson are both listed as questionable, but neither is a particularly great start.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray hasn't looked good from an NFL perspective but because he rushes the ball a lot, he's viable in fantasy. There's some concern that the offense struggles to sustain drives, especially because they're still dealing with injuries coming off their bye, so he's a streamer with a lower ceiling but a safer floor.
Other Matchups:
Trey McBride (TE, ARI)
McBride led the way as usual with eight receptions for 89 yards and a score. It's a brutal matchup, but the 49ers are dealing with injuries to their defense and he's been so consistent. He's in the top 12.
Injuries:
Elijah Mitchell (knee)
Marquise Brown (heel)
Michael Wilson (neck)
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Rams -6.5
Implied Total: Commanders (22) vs. Rams (28.5)
Pace: Commanders (21st) vs. Rams (18th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -2.1% Pass (25th), -8.1% Rush (21st)
Rams Off. DVOA: 25.5% Pass (8th), 1.2% Rush (7th)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 35.3% Pass (32nd), -15.4% Rush (8th)
Rams Def. DVOA: 11.7% Pass (22nd), -5.2% Rush (21st)
Matchups We Love:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Stafford put forth a heck of an effort in what was the wildest game of the week. He went stride for stride with Lamar Jackson as the two combined for over 600 passing yards and six passing touchdowns. Taking on the Commanders is an excellent situation for another top-12 performance.
Rams WRs
While both members of this duo were good, it was Cooper Kupp who led the way with eight catches for 115 yards and a score. One interesting note was that the Ravens' slot defender Kyle Hamilton got hurt, which could have contributed to the production for Kupp. He and Puka Nacua are both in the top 15 against the Commanders. If you need a flex option, Tutu Atwell left with a concussion and could miss this week, which would make Demarcus Robinson, who scored and had 10 targets, worth considering.
UPDATE: Atwell practiced in full on Friday, signaling he'll likely clear the concussion protocol, which would remove Robinson as an option, especially with Tyler Higbee back as well.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)
Williams conquered another stout defense, racking up 114 rushing yards. Stafford was airing it out downfield to keep pace, so he earned just four targets. He too will get a shot to run all over the Washington defense in a game they should dominate.
Matchups We Hate:
Commanders WRs
It's been a dreadful end to the season for Terry McLaurin, who failed to catch a pass in Week 13. The last time he exceeded 50 receiving yards was in Week 9 and he hasn't scored since Week 8. It's been equally bad for Jahan Dotson, who finished with just 23 receiving yards in two of the past three weeks. These two are impossible to put in your lineup in such an important week. The one player who has shown flashes is Curtis Samuel. He had stat lines of 4/65 and 9/100 in his past two outings. He's a potential flex option with the offense generally throwing the ball a lot.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
The matchup here says to roll with Thomas, but it's been a while since he's had a nice game. He hasn't found the end zone in any of their last five contests and in Week 13 he had zero receptions but did catch a two-point conversion. He had five grabs for 58 yards four weeks ago, which feels like an optimistic outcome this week. He's a streamer with minimal upside.
Other Matchups:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
The hamstring injury Brian Robinson Jr. suffered in Week 13 sounded serious at the time. Despite an entire bye week, he's missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, indicating there's a strong possibility he's inactive. His absence would thrust Gibson into the starting role, particularly as the primary checkdown option. It's a tougher matchup, but he'd move into the top 24 with Chris Rodriguez Jr. as a flex option.
UPDATE: Robinson has been ruled out as expected, making Gibson the starter with Rodriguez as the backup.
Sam Howell (QB, WAS)
Howell fell flat as a passer in Week 13, tossing it just 23 times with 12 completions. It was a large part of why so many of the pass-catchers struggled. He did score twice on the ground, which is good for his fantasy value, but not so much for everyone else. He's a streamer because he'll air it out and run when needed.
Injuries:
Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring)
Tutu Atwell (concussion)
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -2.0
Implied Total: Cowboys (24) vs. Bills (26)
Pace: Cowboys (22nd) vs. Bills (24th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 30.7% Pass (5th), -4.6% Rush (16th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 42.1% Pass (2nd), 1.9% Rush (6th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -4.9% Pass (6th), -15.7% Rush (6th)
Bills Def. DVOA: 7.5% Pass (16th), -10.3% Rush (18th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have mild wind with a decent chance of rain, but it shouldn't have a major impact.
Matchups We Love:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
After proving he's capable of knocking off tough opponents with the destruction of Philadelphia, he gets another shot to add to his MVP case in Buffalo. You get two great offenses in what could be a shootout. The Bills have been playing better on defense, but shying away from Prescott feels foolish given the run he's on.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
One player you can always be confident in is Lamb. He's the WR2 in points per game behind only Tyreek Hill. It's been an incredible year and it's not done yet. Brandin Cooks saw his hot streak come to an end at the hands of Michael Gallup, who popped up for the first time in several weeks with a touchdown. More impactful though was the five targets he earned, tied with Cooks. Cooks is still the preferred wideout, staying in the top 36 in a game they'll likely need to throw a lot.
UPDATE: Cooks was added to the injury report with an illness and listed as questionable. We'll need to monitor him over the weekend. Gallup would move up the ranks if Cooks misses.
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
Running against the Eagles is tough, so 16 carries for 59 yards is about what you'd expect. What was awesome for Pollard was his seven receptions for 37 yards. It's great to see his usage as a receiver, which helps to lock him in with a good matchup against Buffalo. Rico Dowdle keeps finding the end zone, this time totaling over 50 scrimmage yards. He's a possible flex option depending on your other choices.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
Part of the reason Cooks and Gallup struggled for volume was because Ferguson had eight targets, including a 32-yard catch and run. He's a threat to score and slots in as the second receiving weapon behind Lamb most weeks.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
It wasn't easy for Allen but he overcame the Chiefs in Arrowhead for a huge win to keep their season alive. They're motivated and playing complementary football at the right time of year to be dangerous. He ran well as he typically does with 10 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown. Get ready for another fun one here.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs lost the matchup with L'Jarius Snead, which has been an issue this year. He struggled against Sauce Gardner and Patrick Surtain II as well. Dallas lost his brother, Trevon Diggs, to injury earlier in the year, so they don't really have a shutdown corner. Daron Bland is the master of the pick-six, but he's susceptible to giving up big plays at times. It should be a spot for redemption for Diggs, who was great the week prior against Philly. After that it's Gabe Davis, who goosed again, and Khalil Shakir, who played his lowest snap share since Week 7, coinciding with the return of Dawson Knox. Neither is someone to look to.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
James Cook (RB, BUF)
Part of why those receivers didn't do much is because Cook had a receiver-esque stat line of 5/83/1. Not to mention 58 rushing yards. He's completely iced the other backs with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady taking over. It's a terrible matchup on the ground, but his involvement as a pass-catcher makes him a top-20 back.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
Knox's return didn't affect the participation of Kincaid, who ran a route on 86% of Allen's dropbacks, earned a 19% target share, and accounted for 11% of the team's air yards, all higher than Week 12. One thing that did change was his aDot, which dropped to 4.86, the lowest since Week 9. They seem content with playing both him and Knox at the same time but tend to use him closer to the line of scrimmage, which limits his ceiling. That being said, he's still a solid top-12 tight end.
Injuries:
Brandin Cooks (illness)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Ravens -3.5
Implied Total: Ravens (23) vs. Jaguars (19.5)
Pace: Ravens (26th) vs. Jaguars (17th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 24.4% Pass (9th), 23.9% Rush (1st)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 23.4% Pass (12th), -14.1% Rush (24th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -22.4% Pass (2nd), -15.0% Rush (9th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 2.0% Pass (10th), -18.0% Rush (2nd)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have moderate wind but no rain, which could impact the passing attacks.
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
The hope for Jackson was that the Rams could force him to be aggressive and score points. While I was hesitant to believe it could happen, it came to fruition in full force. He had his second-best game of the year from a fantasy perspective, torching the Rams through the air for 316 and three while running all over them with his legs for 70 yards. It's possible the Jaguars can hang in there long enough to make things interesting, especially if Trevor Lawrence is healthy.
Ravens WRs
Odell Beckham Jr. has been a deep-shot machine, hauling in four passes for 97 yards and a touchdown last week. He has a yards per route run of 2.13, which ranks 18th among qualified receivers. Zay Flowers was dropping everything in the first half but finished strong with six catches for 60 yards and a score, plus a two-point conversion. It's a great matchup, putting both in play with Flowers in the top 24 and Beckham Jr. in the top 30.
Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL)
Likely took advantage of broken coverage on a 54-yard catch-and-run house call. He's one of only a handful of tight ends that has that ability, which is why he's an upside streamer.
Keaton Mitchell (RB, BAL)
Mitchell managed to break off one chunk play for 27 yards but was otherwise inefficient. He saw the most touches with 10, but fell behind Justice Hill in snaps mostly because of the game script. They still value Hill's pass-blocking ability, which poses a threat to the passing down snaps for Mitchell. Nevertheless, he's the most talented and can produce a spike week. Jacksonville has softened on defense against the run, so he's around the top 24 with a higher ceiling.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
After weeks of mediocrity with no touchdowns, Engram has three in the past two games. It's clear he benefits the most from Christian Kirk's absence and has the talent to deliver. Hauling in 11 passes for 95 yards and two scores makes you a borderline must-start at tight end.
Matchups We Hate:
Jaguars WRs
Calvin Ridley struggled again taking on the Cleveland secondary despite earning 13 targets. He finished with four receptions for 53 yards. Zay Jones was even worse with five for 29 on his 12 targets. Much of it can be attributed to the limited mobility of Lawrence, who was questionable to play with an ankle injury, but they're also just inconsistent players. It's hard to imagine another 50 passing attempts, so they're both volatile top-36 wideouts with Jones as the favorite for volume and Ridley the higher ceiling. Parker Washington caught a touchdown and took over the slot role from Kirk, making him a deeper flex option.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence threw three picks and took four sacks. The Browns have the second-highest pass-rush grade, according to PFF, which was part of the issue given his inability to move in the pocket. The Ravens rank 10th in that category, so pressure could be a problem for him with injuries to their offensive line. He managed to lead them on two scoring drives late in comeback mode to inflate his final numbers with three touchdowns. He's practiced in full, but at less than one hundred percent, he falls outside the top 12.
Other Matchups:
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)
Etienne Jr. goes from one difficult matchup to another. The Ravens rank highly in most defensive statistics, but the one that's most concerning for Etienne is that they're No. 1 in rushing touchdowns allowed with just four in 2023. He's thrived on finding the end zone with 10 total on the year. He has been more involved as a pass-catcher recently with four receptions each of the past three weeks, so he's still in the top 20.
Injuries:
None
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Eagles -3.0
Implied Total: Eagles (25.75) vs. Seahawks (22.75)
Pace: Eagles (29th) vs. Seahawks (4th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 24.0% Pass (10th), 6.6% Rush (5th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 23.5% Pass (11th), -9.8% Rush (22nd)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 12.1% Pass (23rd), -12.9% Rush (14th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 14.7% Pass (27th), -6.6% Rush (19th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have scattered showers, but no wind, so it shouldn't have much impact.
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
The Eagles concluded their murderer's row schedule by failing to score an offensive touchdown in an embarrassing beatdown in Dallas. Hurts was a flop for the first time all year, but that's bound to change against the Seahawks, whose defense was roasted by the 49ers and Cowboys in back-to-back weeks.
Eagles WRs
Despite no trips to the end zone, A.J. Brown came through with nine receptions for 94 yards while DeVonta Smith was five for 73. They also combined for a ridiculous 85% target share. In the first game with Dallas Goedert back, Smith ran a route on 100% of Hurts's dropbacks as usual, had a season-high 36% targets per route run rate, earned a season-high 38% target share, and was the only player targeted in the end zone. It's only a one-week sample, but so far so good for Smith. Seattle is allowing the sixth-most points to receivers over the past six weeks, keeping both in your lineup this week.
Seahawks WRs
Drew Lock did his best to keep them afloat, which he succeeded in early. They were even up by three after the first quarter. Unfortunately, they scored just six points in the remaining three quarters in a blowout loss. DK Metcalf was part of that early success, finding the end zone, but finished with only two catches. Meanwhile, Tyler Lockett revived his role with six grabs for 89 yards despite the rookie, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, leading the team in targets with seven. The matchup is fantastic, but the ceiling is capped if it's Lock at the helm again. Smith is hopeful to suit up, so for now, we'll leave this group here. With Smith back, Metcalf would be a top-20 wideout with Smith-Njigba and Lockett in the top 36.
UPDATE: Smith is listed as questionable for Monday's game. It's hard to know for sure if he'll play, but it seems like he's closer this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Seahawks RBs
Both backs returned to action with Kenneth Walker III resuming his role as the starter. He had a slight edge in snaps, routes run, and targets while Zach Charbonnet saw more carries and played more of the long distance downs. Neither did well against the 49ers' stout run defense with Walker's 54 total yards as the better of the two. It's another difficult spot against the Eagles, so both fall outside the top 24 with Walker as the preferred tailback.
Other Matchups:
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
As we outlined above, there was nothing left for anyone else after the dynamic duo at receiver took theirs. Goedert had a season-high in route participation but his target share was down. It's a good matchup against Seattle and it's his second contest back from injury, so he's a top-12 tight end.
D'Andre Swift (RB, PHI)
The hope for Swift was that he'd be utilized as a receiver given the negative game script. Zero targets say otherwise. It ended up hurting his production because they were down so much they started using Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott more. The matchup is there for a bounce-back performance. The Seahawks rank second-to-last in rushing yards per attempt allowed over the past three weeks, third-to-last in EPA per rush allowed, and are giving up the second-most fantasy points to RBs over the past six weeks. He stays in the top 24 for what should be an easy win.
Injuries:
Geno Smith (groin)
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