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Which fantasy football running backs will fall short of their ADP in 2024? Joey Pollizze looks at three running backs who will not live up to their ADP this season.
More and more fantasy football managers are passing on running backs in the early rounds of fantasy drafts. That has certainly been the case in 2024 drafts, as only four running backs have an ADP inside the top 13 (Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs).
With more injuries to the running back position than ever, fantasy managers are waiting longer and longer to fill their running back slot in drafts. That has led to some using the Zero RB approach.
Whether you use the Zero RB approach or want to grab one of the top running backs this year, fantasy managers should avoid drafting these three players at the position in 2024. All three of these playmakers will fall short of their ADP this season.
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Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Fantasy Football ADP: 11.2
There's no doubt that Gibbs showed a ton of great things as a rookie in 2023. When the Lions actually started to use him the correct way, the 22-year-old flashed his potential. He ran for 945 yards and 10 touchdowns while catching 52 passes for 316 yards and one touchdown. His talent is not the problem, rather it's his potential workload with David Montgomery still on the team.
Gibbs showed he could coexist with Montgomery last season to form a dynamic one-two punch out of the backfield. However, splitting touches with another back and going as the RB4 in drafts seems like a hard pass on many levels.
The second-year back doesn't necessarily need 17-20 touches per game to post elite numbers. But only touching the ball 10-15 times per game can lower his fantasy ceiling. From Week 12 to Week 18, Gibbs averaged 14 PPR fantasy points on just 14.1 touches per game.
all 10 rushes of 20+ yards from Jahmyr Gibbs
he had the #2 most rushes of 20+ yards of any player last year despite being a rookie & sharing a backfield
rookie RBs with over 5% of rushes gaining 20+ yards since 2010 (min 150 att)
Nick Chubb
Saquon Barkley
Jahmyr Gibbs https://t.co/eB7h8Py4cV pic.twitter.com/9iCvDW8FEI— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 9, 2024
Now, will Gibbs see more touches and be more involved in Year 2? Yes, but don't think the Lions are just going to go away from Montgomery in the running game. The veteran scored 13 touchdowns in 2023 and should be the primary goal-line back again in 2024. That split workload could be a large reason why the young running back falls short of his ADP this season.
With an ADP of 11.2, he is just going too high. Every other running back going around him in drafts (McCaffrey, Robinson, Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Kyren Williams) will likely have a workhorse role. Yet, Gibbs is going higher than half of those players. He is just too risky to take in the first round because he might only see 60% of the Lions' offensive snaps.
De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Football ADP: 23.4
Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane has flown up draft boards after a strong rookie campaign. Achane averaged 17.3 PPR fantasy points in 2023 while rushing for 800 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite missing six games, the 22-year-old still finished as the RB24 in PPR formats.
Now, heading into 2024, Achane should be in store for a much higher fantasy finish. However, fantasy managers should think twice about drafting the Dolphins running back at his RB8 ADP. He is too much of a risk at his 23.4 ADP on Sleeper due to a high bust rate.
Most fantasy managers will remember Achane scoring 51.3 PPR fantasy points in Week 3 or 27 PPR fantasy points in Week 4 last year. But the young running back had his fair share of struggles in fantasy in his first year. He averaged 12.4 PPR fantasy points in the final five weeks of the season while failing to score in double figures twice.
But Achane's injury risk makes his RB8 ADP not worth the reward for some.
Achane is undersized at 5'9" 188 lbs & missed 6 games as a result in 2023.
Currently drafted ahead of
- Pacheco
- Etienne
- Henry
- WhitePlus Raheem Mostert is still around.pic.twitter.com/L7RqRi5H02
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) June 10, 2024
The former Texas A&M product is definitely a talented running back in the NFL. He averaged 7.77 yards per carry in 2023 and only needed 103 carries to top the 800-yard mark. But he is another running back who could be in a committee. Raheem Mostert is still in town, and the Dolphins just drafted Jaylen Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Achane will likely still have his big fantasy days, but fantasy managers should expect some poor days as well. As a result, there's a strong possibility he will fall short of his RB8 ADP.
D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
Fantasy Football ADP: 67.2
After spending the 2023 season with the Philadelphia Eagles, running back D'Andre Swift signed a multiyear deal with the Chicago Bears this offseason. Swift enjoyed a strong year with the Eagles, where he rushed for a career-high 1,049 yards and five touchdowns. The 25-year-old also finished as the RB23 in half PPR formats.
However, Swift is now going as the RB21 in drafts heading into the year. That seems too high for a running back who just finished as the RB23 with the Eagles and now goes to a worse offense with a worse offensive line in Chicago. That's why he could fall short of his 67.2 ADP on Sleeper.
On top of that, the Bears have two other running backs who could see some touches out of the backfield. Khalil Herbert has missed nine games over the past two years, but when he has been healthy, he has produced solid numbers on the ground. Since 2022, he is averaging 5.1 yards per carry to go with 1,342 yards. Roschon Johnson also figures to have a role on offense. He was the team's fourth-round selection in 2023 and rushed for 352 yards in his first year.
I still believe in Chicago Bears RB Roschon Johnson!
While the arrival of D’Andre Swift is definitely interesting, I think Roschon still has a role and if Swift doesn’t work out in CHI, he’s also shown that he’s more than capable on 3rd downs too.
— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) July 3, 2024
Swift will definitely be the team's starting running back in 2024 and should see most of the running back touches. But Herbert and Johnson will both see some opportunities as well. With a rookie quarterback under center, the Bears offense could go through some struggles this upcoming season, making the 25-year-old a risk at his RB21 ADP.
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