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Which fantasy football quarterbacks will fall short of their ADP in 2024? Joey Pollizze looks at three quarterbacks who will not live up to their ADP this season.
Quarterbacks are the most important position in fantasy football. They usually score the most points for your fantasy team every week and could single-handedly help you win a fantasy football championship.
Some would say that grabbing one of the top quarterbacks like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts is the correct strategy in fantasy, while others will say that waiting for a quarterback until the later rounds is the right move. However, there are no right ways to attack this position in fantasy.
Fantasy managers, though, should be cautious about drafting these three quarterbacks on this list. All three of these quarterbacks are going a bit too high in drafts and could fall short of their ADP in 2024.
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Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy Football ADP: 38.8
There's no doubt that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL. He just led the Chiefs to their second straight Super Bowl while winning his third Super Bowl MVP last year. But, from a fantasy perspective, Mahomes is going way too high in drafts. With a QB3 ADP, there's a good chance that the 28-year-old will fall short of that mark in 2024.
Of course, everyone wants to draft Mahomes. He is the best quarterback in the world, and Kansas City upgraded its wide receiver room this offseason. Kansas City signed Marquise Brown in free agency and drafted Xavier Worthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. So, the two-time MVP could be in for a much better year after he threw for 4,183 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.
Patrick Mahomes is not from this planet I am convinced! pic.twitter.com/dy7BHVWeA9
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) August 20, 2023
However, spending a late third or early-fourth-round pick in fantasy just isn't worth it for Mahomes. He doesn't run much -- as he has rushed for under 400 yards in all seven seasons -- and he has failed to finish top-3 at the quarterback position in four of the past five years.
During those past five seasons, Mahomes has a QB8 finish (2023), a QB1 finish (2022), two QB4 finishes (2021 and 2020), and a QB7 finish (2019). Yet, fantasy managers are selecting him as the QB3 in 2024 solely based on his name. Despite having a high fantasy floor entering the season, he's going too high at this point in the draft.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Fantasy Football ADP: 41.2
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history. He became just the fifth quarterback in history to throw for 4,000 yards as a rookie, joining Andrew Luck (4,374), Justin Herbert (4,336), Cam Newton (4,051), and Jameis Winston (4,042). Stroud also threw 23 touchdowns in his first year while finishing as the QB11 in fantasy.
After that strong rookie campaign, things are certainly trending up for Stroud in Year 2. The Texans also went out and traded for both Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs this offseason. Those playmakers are two more weapons for the young quarterback in the passing game.
CJ Stroud has all the potential in the world pic.twitter.com/oGvXxnjAW4
— PFF (@PFF) July 9, 2024
However, Stroud might be going a bit too high in fantasy in 2024. He is currently going in the fourth round of fantasy drafts with a QB5 ADP. The former Ohio State product was exceptional in his rookie season, but taking him a couple of rounds earlier than quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson (59.1 ADP), Joe Burrow (65.2 ADP), Dak Prescott (76.9 ADP), and Kyler Murray (82.7 ADP) doesn't necessarily make much sense.
Stroud doesn't run much -- which could hurt his fantasy finish in 2024 -- and going three to four rounds earlier than Burrow or Prescott is mind-boggling. Both those pocket-passers draw similar comparisons to the 22-year-old quarterback in the sense that they are primary passers with elite weapons on the outside.
Stroud definitely has the situation and talent to finish top five at the position this season. But only rushing for 167 yards in 2023 could be a downfall to that top-5 finish. So, there is a chance that he will fall short of that QB5 ADP in 2024.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Fantasy Football ADP: 95.1
Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is going to be an elite player in the league one day. With the way the Bears have built their offense around him, Williams could make an immediate impact in the NFL in Year 1. Nevertheless, fantasy managers should be a little hesitant in drafting him at his QB11 price tag.
Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in their first year in the league, so there is some risk in drafting Williams in the eighth or ninth round of fantasy drafts. Of course, there are exceptions to that, like Stroud last year, Herbert in 2020, or even Cam Newton in 2011. But most rookie quarterbacks do go through plenty of struggles right away.
Since 2013, only four rookie quarterbacks have finished top 11 at the position in fantasy: Stroud (2023), Herbert (2020), Murray (2019), and Prescott (2016). Of those four quarterbacks, only Herbert scored more than 300 fantasy points in his first year. As a result, recent history is not on Williams' side heading into his rookie campaign.
Potential No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams has already begun pre-draft training run by former NFL QB coach Rich Scangarello, whom he met years ago through @QBCollective. Getting ready to hit the ground running as a pro. pic.twitter.com/XOUVCEKvwA
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 15, 2024
His situation in Year 1 could help propel him to a top-11 finish in 2024, especially with wideouts like DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze in the passing game. But it might take him some time to develop in his first season, and that might hurt his fantasy finish in 2024. He'll eventually be a great quarterback in the NFL, but Brock Purdy (102.7 ADP) and Jared Goff (111.6 ADP) might be better value picks at the position this year -- considering both finished top seven in 2023.
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