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Which fantasy football wide receivers will exceed their ADP in 2024? Quincy Milton looks at three wide receivers who will exceed their preseason ADP this season.
Hitting on undervalued players and breakouts in your fantasy football draft is often what can propel your team to the promised land.
Every year, fantasy players are enamored by the certified studs and late-round sleepers. The middle rounds can go overlooked, but these players can provide immense value to your team. After all, not every top-ranked player or late-round sleeper is going to hit.
Fatigue can often depress mid-round players' value and it is up to you to see right through that trap. Here are three wide receivers who you can find in the middle of your draft who could provide a solid return on investment and boost your team.
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DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: WR22)
DK Metcalf has been a consistent fantasy WR2 for the last three seasons. He has not reached the heights of his WR7 finish in 2020, but he has slotted in between WR14 and WR21 in the three seasons since.
Depending on your platform, Metcalf is being drafted around WR22. It feels like Metcalf is being drafted at or even below his floor. With quarterback Geno Smith due for a bounce-back season with a new Seahawks regime, Metcalf may be able to realistically sneak into the top 10-15 wide receivers in 2024.
Ryan Grubb is in as the Seahawks offensive coordinator after spending the last two seasons at the University of Washington in the same role. He projects to bring his high-flying offense down the road from Husky Stadium to Lumen Field. The Seahawks offense should play faster in 2024 with more three wide receiver sets, which could open up lanes for Metcalf. Grubb himself has been talking up Metcalf all season. We may finally see him truly unleashed as the focal point of the offense.
Grubb responds to Hugh Millen’s plead for DK Metcalf to have 10 targets per game
“Those possibilities are certainly in the framework of the offense” pic.twitter.com/mB8pSwqfSl
— ᴅᴏxx ⚡️ (@new_era72) July 30, 2024
Metcalf finished 2023 with 1,114 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He only scored six touchdowns in 2022 after scoring at least 10 the two seasons prior. Touchdowns are variable, but if Metcalf were to go back to the days of scoring 10 or more, then he could easily finish in the top 15 at the position in 2024.
Metcalf was sixth in the NFL with 24 red-zone targets in 2023. As long as that number stays the same, then the touchdowns could very well bounce back in Metcalf's favor. He is at least going to be a solid WR2 and may even sneak into the WR1 ranks if the ball bounces right.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: WR27)
The George Pickens drumbeat continues to grow louder. The 23-year-old has already seen a slight uptick in ADP early in draft season. Pickens finished as the WR30 in 2023 with Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett quarterbacking the Steelers. While it is unclear who will be the starter in 2024 between Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, both are upgrades at quarterback over Rudolph and Pickett.
THE JUSTIN FIELDS x GEORGE PICKENS DUO IS HAPPENING 🥹
(via @Mazursky8895) pic.twitter.com/FXmHNTa68X
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) July 30, 2024
Wilson may not be the quarterback that he used to be, but he is still effective. He just managed to throw 10 touchdowns to a much-less-talented Courtland Sutton in 2023. Additionally, Fields supported a breakout campaign and WR6 finish from Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore in 2023.
Pickens has the perfect makeup of a player ready for a breakout in 2024. In 2023, he improved across all major statistical categories, including targets, receptions, yards, yards per catch, and touchdowns, from his rookie season in 2022. His fantasy finish also improved from WR39 to WR30. Most importantly, with the Steelers trading Diontae Johnson to the Panthers, Pickens is now the clear alpha in this offense.
Johnson's departure vacates 6.2 targets per game. Those will be split between Pickens, Van Jefferson, rookie Roman Wilson, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and the running backs. Despite a fair number of other targets in this offense, Pickens will likely see the biggest uptick in targets of the bunch. Pickens will also likely be the No. 1 read in the offense.
Pickens' consistency will need to improve in 2024. He did, after all, have a game in which he recorded zero catches for zero yards in 2023. However, his 2.20 yards per route run was good for 17th in the league in 2023 and should only go up in 2024. No matter who is throwing the ball for the Steelers, Pickens should be a target for his current draft price.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans (ADP: WR32)
This pick requires improvements from second-year quarterback Will Levis, but all signs point to Ridley outperforming his current ADP.
Ridley is a certified deep threat. His 28 deep targets and 1,792 air yards were both good for eighth in the NFL in 2023. Ridley and Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence were not on the same page in 2023, leading to a line of 76 receptions for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns.
Levis loves to throw the deep ball and has the confidence to do so. Levis only played in nine games in 2023, but he was 17th in the league with 56 deep-ball attempts. He is going to cut the ball loose to Ridley more often than not. If these two display better chemistry than Ridley and Lawrence, then this could be a fun season.
Fantasy managers may feel burned by Ridley's up-and-down season in 2023, but there is no denying all the near misses for the 29-year-old. Ridley's 25 red-zone targets were good for third in the league. Imagine if Ridley had converted far more of his red-zone targets into touchdowns. We would be having a different conversation about him.
Lastly, Ridley's competition for targets is an aging DeAndre Hopkins, a disappointing Treylon Burks, and Tyler Boyd. Ridley is the clear No. 1 of the bunch. This team projects to have an average defense and should need to throw to keep up in games. With new head coach Brian Callahan bringing the Bengals system with him, the offense could be surprisingly potent.
At a minimum, Ridley should outperform his ADP as a necessity for any sort of Titans success. If the Titans offense does take a jump, then your return on investment will be very high.
Good luck trying to cover #Titans WR Calvin Ridley 1-on-1 😳🔥 pic.twitter.com/G8wvuznshR
— AtoZ Sports Nashville (@AtoZSports) July 30, 2024
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