DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Shriners Children's Open With Tom Kim, J.T. Poston, Adam Schenk and Lexi Thompson and More Golf Advice (2023)

October 9, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Shriners Children's Open. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Shriners Children's Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Shriners Children's Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 132
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 1

Last Five Winners Of The Shriners Children's Open

Expected Cut-Line

TPC Summerlin

7,251 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bentgrass

They always say what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. However, those answers will become public knowledge when a tournament occurs 15 minutes from my home at a venue I have played multiple times.

I approach the space from a statistical perspective and have always used my mathematical background to derive blueprints and ideas. That isn't necessarily going to be upended here since the core of my being stems from the data I can find and extrapolate into my sheet, although there are a lot of noteworthy explanations that can be formulated from seeing the venue in person throughout my life.

Beautiful Las Vegas scenery encompasses a venue that meanders through arroyos and canyons. Some of that layout will present semi-blind tee shots that players will need to maneuver through if they want to take advantage of the 13-yard increase in driving distance from a standard stop on tour. Most of that reason occurs because of the desert spirit that allows the ball to travel further off the tee, but for what you get aesthetically from a visual perspective and the unique qualities of the structure, you do lose on the opposite end of the spectrum regarding difficulty.

There have been some iterations of the contest that you can find over the years where the winning score has dipped into single digits, most notably in 2017 when heavy gusts ravaged the outcome for the week. That answer is worth noting because Vegas always has the potential to create wind-bound issues. Still, the mixture of relative ease weather-wise entering the tournament over the past few weeks in Vegas and the overall birdie nature of the course gives us very little pushback for the challenge players will receive from TPC Summerlin.

As I have noted over the years, birdie shootouts can sometimes be a headache for us numerically when we assemble our research. I have never been one who looks at the data and finds excitement in seeing the past five winning totals land between 21-24 under par. To me, that is boring golf that takes away some of the skills needed that separate the quality of a player on tour. Nonetheless, the scoring dispersion marks for putting tend to be at (or below) the PGA Tour baseline.

That means golfers who can take advantage of their tee-to-green game should have an advantage over the field, and there seems to have been a shift at the course once they redid a combined 92 bunkers in 2018. It hasn't equated to a more challenging time scoring, and if anything, it may have somehow made the track easier, but it has caused a shift from the long-term totals that we might be able to take advantage of for anyone using too long of a sample size.

We can talk about this property a little more when I get into the key stats below, but consider this a straightforward test that does reward a solid tee-to-green skillset while emphasizing most of your standard needs when playing golf in a heated climate.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

Strokes Gained: Putting On Soft Bentgrass (10%)

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green Last 24 (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Easy Scoring + Soft Greens (10%)

Strokes Gained Total TPC (10%)

Weighted Scoring (25%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

I'd like to see ownership before locking in a decision for this section. It doesn't look like you can go massively wrong since all four players possess a top-three ranking for either overall or upside, but I probably lean toward Tom Kim, Cameron Davis and J.T. Poston when removing one from the mix.

Aberg has played a ton of golf over the past few weeks and admitted to running on fumes during last week's Sanderson Farms Championship. The margins are so thin that I don't want to jam in the most expensive one of the four when I don't see a massive difference between this group.

We will see if ownership agrees because that could be the ace in the hole opportunity for a massively under-owned Aberg to enter back into the mix, but let's keep Kim, Davis and Poston in the player pool Monday afternoon and see if we can aggressively pursue a handful of these $9,000+ players. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Despite where I stand with my outright card mostly being exposed to this general area of the board, there is a drop-off in quality from those first four names to this section.

I would say Adam Schenk is the one who most belongs in the $10,000+ range because of his course history and quality scoring returns on similar tracks in the past. My model thought he was the best value in the section, and then it will be a mixing-and-matching with Eric Cole and Nicolai Hojgaard to round out this group. I'd like to see where Adam Hadwin lands popularity-wise because of his success at this venue, but ownership will be the key there to how I want to start builds. I have been finding it challenging early to play Hadwin when Poston is sitting there for $800 more, and I'd likely be pushed completely off the ledge if he lands as a non-contrarian choice.

Some combination of Poston, Tom Kim and Schenk would be my preferred names to start builds if making only a handful of lineups. I'd add the other names I have discussed if building out deeper.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

It is a quality group of names in this $8,000 territory, led by the likes of J.J. Spaun, Andrew Putnam, Adam Svensson, Beau Hossler and Mark Hubbard.

My model was able to find value on each when running this contest for different iterations of the week and believed there may have been hidden win equity on a golfer like Beau Hossler since some of the long-term proximity data was too harsh on his overall profile.

I am going to be using all five options in Vegas, which you can see when you take a deeper dive into my model and check out their quality metrics.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

We can dive deeper into this entire group during my 'Final DraftKings' article.

As of this moment, Sam Ryder, Davis Thompson, Chad Ramey, Ben Griffin, Chesson Hadley, Alex Noren and Martin Laird would by my seven favorite plays.

Ryder's playability across the board made him one of the stronger options inside of my sheet, placing him next to Ramey, Hadley and Laird when diving into the four most mispriced players on the DraftKings slate for this section.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

I am staying consistent with my model and will have Justin Lower, Nate Lashley and Greyson Sigg as the three best values on the board. My math thought it was a nice buy-low spot for each after missing the cut at the Sanderson Farms. The trio has made six of seven career cuts at this tournament since 2018.

I hope Lexi Thompson ends up making the cut, but for the sake of this article, she ranked second-to-last with my data.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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