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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 8 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
I had my best week in a long while last week, only missing the 1-point pick that I was trying to steal. "Stott not Scott" had a perfect week, and "EAGLESYANKEES77" tied with me in the near-perfect week. "Kev Shep," BKNoleGirl," "IUBB1!," "IRONmike," and "keepingthelittlehumansalive" all hit 50 or more points as well.
The good week for "IUBB1!" put them in first place with 272 points. "Strawberry Runtz" is in second place with 268 points. "mr_richard" dropped back to third but is just one point back. "EAGLESYANKEES77" and "big papi10" are tied for fourth just 10 points out of first. "lbockenek" is just one point behind them.
"dlobo4" and "keepingthelittlehumansalive" are tied for seventh with 258 points. "50Centi," "ntmdtr1," and "ertlt" are tied for ninth with 256 points. I'm only one point behind them, and "bullgator" is one point behind me. Only points separate first from 13th, so it's getting tight at the top! We're only halfway done. It's going to get more interesting down the stretch!
College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.
(1) Tennessee over Alabama
Saturday will officially be an Orange Out.
Last time Tennessee had an Orange Out against Alabama, the result was rather sweet. ?? pic.twitter.com/u8oEALxC3g
— TorresOnTennessee (@TorresontheVols) October 15, 2024
...and the goalposts wound up in the Tennessee River. You can bet that will happen again if Tennessee beats Bama here, even though the Vols are higher ranked. It's tradition. The winning players smoke cigars...Tennessee fans throw the goalposts in the Tennessee River for a home win over the Tide.
The Vols have only beaten Alabama three times in the last 20 years. All three of those games were in Knoxville. The Tennessee offense has had trouble getting going lately, but the Alabama defense has allowed 60 points over the last two games.
The Tennesee defense is good enough to hold back the Tide. Jalen Milroe is Alabama's offense right now. Ryan Williams has been better than anyone imagined, but I'll bank on Dylan Sampson and the suddenly tough Tennessee run game to wear down the Tide and control the clock as Vanderbilt did.
(2) Indiana over Nebraska
I might end up moving this up. Nebraska's defense is good, but they have struggled against the run a little in the last couple of games. That's bad news, considering Indiana will throw at least three good running backs at them (not to mention a mobile Kurtis Rourke at quarterback).
True freshman Dylan Raiola has hit a bit of a freshman wall for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers aren't geared to have a track meet with Indiana. The Hoosiers have scored at least 40 points in each of the last five games (after 31 in the opener), including games against the solid defenses of Northwestern and UCLA.
I'm not sure that Indiana scores 40 again, but 30 seems likely. Nebraska hasn't scored 30 since Week 3 against Northern Iowa, and the only FBS team they topped 30 against was UTEP.
(3) Texas over Georgia
Georgia opens as a 3.5-point underdog at Texas.
It marks the first time in 49 games UGA has been a dog dating back to the 2001 season opener vs Clemson, when the Tigers were 3-point favorites.
— Brandon Zimmerman (@BZSEC) October 13, 2024
This is the first time that Georgia has been a dog in over three years. They were favored against Bama in last year's SEC Championship and this year's regular season game. I do think that Oklahoma's stagnant offense made the Texas defense look good last week, but the Texas defense has to share some of that blame.
Carson Beck is the best quarterback that Texas has faced this year, but remember, they did well against Milroe in each of the last two seasons. Georgia needs this game more than Texas, but it's not a deal-breaker with the expanded playoff. A two-loss Georgia still gets in. Hell, a three-loss Georgia probably gets in.
That makes this game far less interesting. It's only interesting this year because we are still caught in the euphoria of all the big regular-season games. In the grand scheme of things, the playoff implications of this game are almost non-existent.
We need Uga vs. Bevo II before Georgia at Texas on Saturday. ?? pic.twitter.com/2e36q1DCAu
— College Sports Only (@CollegeSportsO) October 14, 2024
I give Texas the edge at home. Better receivers for the Longhorns and a defense that is at least as good as Georgia's should result in a (narrow) victory.
(4) Illinois over Michigan
At this point, Ryan Browne is a better quarterback than Alex Orji or Davis Warren and it's not really close. Many are going to cite Purdue storming back against the Illini last week and pushing them to overtime as a sign that Illinois isn't ready for that next step.
If the game were in the Big House, maybe I would buy that. Illinois lost to a Penn State team that is similar to Michigan, but they held a much better Penn State offense to 21 points. They should hold Michigan to one touchdown. All Illinois needs is three field goals.
(5) Arizona State at Cincinnati
FCS Towson ran for 196 yards on the Bearcats in Week 2. What do you think this wrecking ball is going to do to them?
Cam Skattebo : 22 carries for 158 yards & 2 TD's; 4 catches for 41 yards (133 carries for 773 yards & 8 TD's this season) pic.twitter.com/Xe040ouPNi
— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) October 12, 2024
(6) LSU over Arkansas
Battle for the Golden Boot
Saturday October 19th
Kickoff: 7:00pm ET
?: ESPN
?: LSU -3.0All time series: LSU leads 42-23-2
Trophy Series: LSU leads 17-9Last win for each team:
LSU 2023 (W2, 34-31)
Arkansas 2021 (16-13 OT) pic.twitter.com/KvayaMYagh— CFB Home (@CFBHome) October 15, 2024
I might move this down. The Battle For The Golden Boot is always a crazy game. The Vegas spread confirms that bettors think this will be close as well. Having this game this high just tells you how tough the rest of the week is.
(7) Miami (FL) over Louisville
If you listen to all of the Miami hate out there, you will realize that the refs are already going to give them the game. These are free points. We have nothing to worry about. It has nothing at all to do with Cameron Ward in their eyes.
Single game averages of Cam Ward compared to the past 3 Heisman winning QB’s. pic.twitter.com/caAt1E7ms1
— College Football Live (@CollegeFBonX) October 14, 2024
(8) Kansas State over West Virginia
Did you guys watch the Iowa State game in Morgantown last week? Then you know how this is going to go. Avery Johnson is a capable passer, but the Wildcats are going to control the ball on the ground, and the Mountaineers will be mostly powerless to stop it. K-State is just Iowa State lite.
(9) Louisiana over Coastal Carolina
Louisiana beat an ACC team for the first time in school history when they toppled Wake in Week 5 in Winston-Salem. What has CCU done? Beating Temple and Old Dominion doesn't come close to wins over Wake and Appalachian State.
(10) Texas Tech over Baylor
This is the Texas Tech team that I was expecting at the beginning of the season. The week off should help Baylor here, but the same can be said for Tech. Tahj Brooks is going to be a giant problem for a Baylor team that allowed 265 rushing yards to Iowa State before the bye.
Good morning ?
This is your reminder that Tahj Brooks leads the Big 12 in rushing (135.8 YPG).
Have a great day. https://t.co/zsGsllQ0AI | @just_tahj pic.twitter.com/BpStLpiFqv
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) October 12, 2024
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