RADIO
We get to bet on golf at the Olympics! To me, that is just so fun and so special, because it only happens once every four years and its one of the few times golfers who don't get selected for Ryder and President Cups, can represent their country in the sport they have specialized in. As a South African living in the USA for the last 13 years, I have double the participants to cheer for these next two weeks and hopefully an American on our betting card can walk away with gold.
Le Golf National will be host to the 72 holes of guaranteed golf for all 60 golfers playing for their respective nations this week. The venue has typically yielded a leaderboard that struggles to get significantly under par, with the best finishing score being a -17 in the last few years they have played here. The conditions are expected to play softer with all the rain the area has had this summer, and we could see scores challenging the -20 mark with a top heavy field liking sinking their teeth into a soft, scoreable golf course.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Outrights $20
We are not going to overthink this week, taking the value on some high ranked golfers in my model, with French Narrative and rogue number plays in the mix too! All our outrights were placed at Bet 365 where they over an each way market for 3 places. That is particularly enticing this week as we get juiced up outright odds, while a third place finish won't get chopped this week, as they require a finite result to hand out a bronze medal to. If you don't have access to this book, grab the best outright number you can find on these golfers and just roll out a win only card.
We have a saucy seven golfers that has turned out to be a bit of a mess betting them for each way three places. We are losing a few bucks even if the each way places because of the volume of our card, but if we somehow get to two guys on the podium, we are looking golden, pun intended.
Ludvig Aberg $3.98 X2 +2000
The titanic duo of Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler are headed towards a Ludvig Iceberg at this year's Olympics. At a venue that requires total driving to keep the ball out the rough, while also shipping it 310 yards down there to enjoy an easier approach into the greens is exactly where Ludvig thrives. His ball striking on the year ranks 4th in this field and he also had his best putting performance of his career at Augusta on some Bentgrass greens in the event of his career.
The sweet swinging Swede's comfort on European soil should be another feather in his Addidas cap. Since his win at the RSM Classic, another short positional venue, he had a runner up at Pebble Beach, another shorter venue that looks good alongside the 8th at the PLAYERS which is arguably the best comp course for Le Golf National. A T10 at Harbour Town after the Masters is also a good sign that this short course form remains sticky at most of these venues.
In several interviews with the players this week, we have heard them mention that the conditions appear to be playing a little softer, which means lower scores and less missed greens, as errant drives that would have bounced once or twice and then into the rough, may bounce once and remain in the fairway. The same goes for approach shots into the greens, ultimately resulting in less chipping, which is Aberg's Iceberg when it comes to areas of his game that let him down most. If he has an elite week ball striking, he should find himself eyeing down a flurry of French birdie putts on route to Olympic Gold.
Tom Kim $2.48 X2 +3300
One of the few golfers in this field who have played this venue in the past, finishing T6 here last September. Most of the damage was done with the flatstick that week, but Kim's ball striking has been rather scintillating of late, averaging +0.75 strokes per round in the 22 since the RBC Canadian Open, were he had a T4 on a course that has similar agronomics to this week's host course. Kim's form has seen him finish 2nd at the Travellers, losing to Scheffler in a playoff. He has been sniffing around the top of the leaderboard and we will be looking to be there when he sniffs hard enough in France to land up on the podium for Korea.
Byeong Hun An $1.03 X2 +8000
Another Korean on the card, this one with more top-5 finishes than the other, yet, we get him at double the odds. Having finished T5 or better in five events this year, An fought back valiantly at the Open Championship (t13), gaining 10 strokes total in his final three rounds after an opening 75 (-3.29 strokes lost to the field). An thrives on club down courses and when his broomstick putter starts to see them go in early, An has the upside to find himself on the podium and potentially winning golf for his country. My model has him ranked 10th for upside, which makes this 80-1 very appealing considering his ability to contend for a win once in every four events.
Matthieu Pavon $0.91 X2 +9000
Our first of two French investments on our card, hoping for some passion and pride to fuel the hometown heroes to gold. Pavon ranks inside the top-10 in my model this week and his fifth-place finish at the US Open is the reason we are grabbing a rather large number for a winner on tour this year. His T5 came after four really bad performances, but in the big moments he tends to find his footing, and when that putter starts producing, he is a man that you do not want to have across from you on a Sunday. 90-1 is a bit of a ridiculous number for one of the more volatile options playing this week.
Wyndham Clark $0.75 X2 +11000
If I told you that we are getting a three-time winner on tour since 2023 with odds of 110-1, would you not just blindly bet that number? Well, we have Wyndham Clark who has wins at Pebble Beach this year and Wells Fargo and US Open last year. Those are all massively talented fields on golf courses of varying nature. Clark's recent play has also shown some life, finishing top 10 at the Travelers and Scottish, where his putter did its thing. When Clark is in the mix he tends to hang around, validated by his four top-3 finishes this year. A really long number on a golfer who finished second to Scheffler at the Players and T3 at the RBC Heritage, two short, positional tracks. We would love a podium finish from Clark this week!
Victor Perez $0.59 X2 +14000
Victor Perez has three top-12 finishes in his last six starts on tour. He now tees it up as the second Frenchman in the field, looking to find glory in front of his people. Another triple digit price tag at 140-1 is more than enough to have us biting on the French Narrative and recent form. His putter has been pouring them in for positive gains in six of his last seven rounds, gaining +1.57 strokes in the half-dozen positive rounds. Let's get this French phenom on the podium this week!
Nick Taylor $0.27 X2 +30000
This number just makes no sense to me, regardless of the lack of form Nick Taylor has shown lately. Taylor's putter has left the building, the country of Canada and the continent of North America too. However, the Canadian has been striking the irons well all year with the rest of his game really just waiting around the putters return to planet earth. For somebody who has gained significantly on the greens in both of his two wins in the last 13 months, 300-1 is basically a free square on the outright card for a multiple-time winner on tour.
Placings ($75)
This week's placements
- Scottie Sheffler T5 -125: $25 --> $20
- Collin Morikawa T5 +200: $10 --> $20
- Xander Schauffele T10 -200: $40 --> $20
The reasons we like them.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
3-ball picks for the parlay and round robin ($1 on the 4-legger and $1 on each of the four combinations of 3-leggers).
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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