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Allen Robinson’s 2021 NFL campaign was the disaster of all disasters, especially for the fantasy football managers who rostered him. Robinson had the worst season of his above-average NFL career. He missed games due to COVID and hamstring troubles, had quarterbacks who could not get their wobbly passes into his sure hands, and was stuck in a run-first offense that ignored him while lavishing tons of targets on emerging star Darnell Mooney. Robinson deserved better, and he found better after signing a three-year contract with the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams last week.
Do not let Robinson’s paltry 38-410-1 receiving stats line from last year make you forget him when you make out your cheat sheet in August. He has had three 1,000-yard years in his career, and he racked those up with Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky, and Nick Foles as his starting signal-callers those seasons. The sky is the limit when it comes to what Robinson could do with Matthew Stafford throwing darts at him.
What is the fantasy impact of Robinson taking his talents to the Super Bowl champs? Here is what it means for Robinson’s fantasy value and the values of his new teammates in 2022. When you're done, check out our analysis on all the major offseason NFL moves and their fantasy impact.
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Back to the Old A-Rob?
The situation Robinson is in now with the Rams is 1,000,000 times better than the situation he was stuck in with the Bears. It is like going from being a stock person at a department store to being the CEO of a Fortune 500 company. It was not like the Bears just underutilized him. They shunned him as if he wore a scarlet letter. On top of that, he did not look like he was 100 percent in all the games he played due to his bout with COVID and his leg injury.
Has Robinson lost a step? He is 29 and seemed to have trouble separating from cornerbacks at various times last season. He also had the lowest yards per catch (10.8) of his career and did not have any catches over 40 yards. His tape did not make him look like a Pro Bowl receiver who can still make plays all over the field.
But again, between the quarterback issues, injury issues, and a coaching staff who had other ideas when it came to which receiver to get the ball to, Robinson was not given the opportunity to excel as he will in L.A.
Robinson is not going to be the No. 1 receiver with the Rams, and that is AOK. Robert Woods had two 1,000-yard seasons when Cooper Kupp AND Brandin Cooks were on the team and was on his way to another before he tore his ACL, even with Kupp breaking receiving records on the opposite side of the field. Head honcho/offense mastermind Sean McVay will work to make Robinson a key member of his high-powered offense, especially when the organization just invested $46 million in their newest WR. Woods was promptly shipped off to Tennessee and Odell Beckham Jr. may not be ready to play most of the season even if he does stay with the Rams.
So Robinson has better receivers to play with and a better coaching staff to draw plays and find ways to get him the ball. Let’s not forget he has a quarterback who just threw 41 touchdown passes a year ago. Chicago quarterbacks only threw 16 in 2021, and it took three QBs to do it. Stafford will be the best quarterback Robinson has ever played with, and it will undoubtedly improve Robinson’s fantasy totals exponentially.
Matthew Stafford
Stafford tied his career-high in touchdown tosses and won a Super Bowl surrounded by one of the best receiving crews in the league. Adding Robinson to the pass-catcher mix definitely does not hurt Stafford’s fantasy worth. Robinson gives Stafford someone who can use his vertical leaping ability inside the red zone to become a touchdown target. Robinson can also be a solid possession receiver with big-play wideouts around to stretch the field. Odell Beckham Jr.’s chances of returning seem 50-50 and longtime standout Robert Woods was traded to Tennessee, but the addition of Robinson does nothing but help Stafford’s fantasy value.
Cooper Kupp
The NFL’s best receiver should not be affected much by Robinson’s arrival. He has been great whether the Rams have another great receiver on the field to prevent him from being double-covered or not. When the aforementioned Beckham Jr. joined the team at the midway point last season, Kupp’s numbers did not suffer in the least. Stafford’s top target had at least 95 receiving yards in all eight of the games Beckham Jr. suited up. If Robinson returns to his 1,000-yard ways, he will open the secondary for Kupp and allow him more chances to see single coverage. This is not a situation where he will take targets from Kupp and damage Kupp’s fantasy numbers, that’s for sure.
Rest of the Receiving Corps
We do not know if playoff hero Beckham Jr. will re-sign with the Rams or when he will be able to get back on the field after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl. If Beckham does re-up and return, that will not bode well for him or Robinson in the target and stats departments. Kupp needs his dozen targets every week, and the Rams will also want to run the ball half the time if perpetually-injured Cam Akers is actually healthy and fumble-free. If Robinson has to split the scraps with Beckham Jr. and the rest of the group, his hopes for 1,000 yards might dry up quicker than my flowers do after a series of 90-degree days.
Van Jefferson had the opportunity to make his mark after Robert Woods tore his ACL and while Beckham Jr. was getting accustomed to the offense, but he did not establish himself as a go-to guy. He scored touchdowns in three consecutive games, but he had no 100-yard efforts on the season and was cast as more of a home run hitter than a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver. Jefferson’s chances of elevating himself up the WR depth chart to be Kupp’s right-hand man took a titanic hit with the Robinson signing. He looks like he is for 600-800 yards in his third season barring a major injury to Kupp or Robinson.
Tight end Tyler Higbee was unable to be more than a mediocre fantasy tight end in 2021 despite Gerald Everett not being around to ruin his fantasy hopes, dreams, and stats. Robinson’s arrival does not make things easier for Higbee in terms of his target share. If the Rams receiving corps was mediocre or downright dismal, it would be better for Higbee. That is not the case, especially with Robinson officially in the fold.
Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet in Chicago
Mooney easily led all Bears receivers last season in every major category, and he had more than twice the receptions, targets, and yards that Robinson had. Even if Robinson played in the four games he missed, it would not have mattered. Chicago’s coaching staff obviously favored focusing on Mooney and making him the No. 1 WR because they knew Robinson was on his way out and was not as young or as cheap as Mooney. The Bears will certainly bring in a couple of receivers to round out their group, but Mooney’s numbers should continue to improve as he gets more experienced and gets better play out of his franchise quarterback, Justin Fields. Do not be surprised to see Mooney have 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns this upcoming season.
Kmet showed flashes of what he could do between the 20s with the Bears last season, piling up 60 catches for 612 yards. The problem was no compass or GPS could lead him into the end zone. Zero touchdowns. I cannot blame Robinson for this since he only scored once himself, but there is no doubt that Kmet has a better chance of reaching the end zone in 2022 without Robinson there. I would bank on Kmet having 700 yards and scoring four times this year.
Final Prediction For Robinson
The bottom line is that Robinson’s signing and subsequent switching from the bottom-feeding Bears to the Super Bowl champ Rams does not hurt the fantasy values of most of the players affected, especially Robinson. He has a better chance of reclaiming his past fantasy glory and posting another 1,000-yard season than he does of being a fantasy flop two years in a row.
Will Robinson have 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns like he did back in 2015? No. But I do believe he could have the second-best year of his career and finish with 1,250 yards and eight touchdowns. The key in my mind is Beckham Jr. If OBJ comes back, Robinson’s road to 1,250 yards gets bumpier. If Beckham Jr. signs elsewhere, Robinson’s road could be littered with 100-yard weeks and more trips to the end zone than he has had in a long time.
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