June 2, 2017

Andy Patton compares players with different ADPs to find good draft sleepers for the 2017 fantasy football season. These players could be mid-round values.

The Wisdom of Crowds is a concept theorized by philosopher Francis Galton, who observed at a county fair in 1906 a group of over 800 people guessing the weight of an ox that was on display. While the majority of people were off by a fair amount, the median guess was 1208 pounds, less than 1% off from the ox’s actual weight of 1197 pounds. Applying this concept to fantasy football, the average draft position for a player should roughly equal their production, as the wisdom of the majority should rule, right?

However, fantasy football owners have notoriously undervalued and overvalued certain players, and a keen fantasy football owner can learn to recognize those players that routinely get drafted higher or lower than they should. Looking at players in MFL10 formats who have been drafted in the first few rounds, there are plenty of players going in round seven or later who are likely to put up similar fantasy numbers in the 2017 season, and who will cost much less on draft day.

Here are some valuable targets for the middle rounds of fantasy drafts that could produce just as well as their counterparts with much higher ADP.

Mid-Round Assets for MFL10

Andrew Luck (2.11) vs. Matthew Stafford (7.09) 

Matthew Stafford throws the football a lot. While not enough of his passes are caught for touchdowns, he manages to limit his mistakes and thus puts up high-profile fantasy numbers despite limited recognition. In fact last year Stafford completed 388 passes, good for sixth in the league and 42 more than Andrew Luck, who finished 16th. Stafford had more pass attempts than Luck (594 to 545) but also had a higher completion percentage as well, completing 65.3% of his passes, compared to Luck’s 63.5% mark.

Stafford’s value is down after only throwing 24 touchdowns, good for 14th in the league and seven behind Luck. However, his lofty yard total (4,327) and limited interceptions (10) make him a very valuable quarterback in fantasy settings. Teams who use their second round pick on a high-end running back or wide receiver (LeSean McCoy, Brandin Cooks, Dez Bryant and Jay Ajayi are all going right after Luck) and wait to draft Stafford around round six or seven will reap the benefits. The production gained from a McCoy or Bryant far outweighs the limited differences in production between Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford.

Brandin Cooks (2.10) vs. Emmanuel Sanders (7.10) 

Brandin Cooks and Emmanuel Sanders had 78 and 79 receptions last year, respectively. Cooks made the most of his receptions, totaling 412 more yards and three more touchdowns than Sanders. However, a trade from New Orleans to New England for Cooks could cost him red zone opportunities, further bridging the already narrow gap between the two receivers. Cooks will now compete with bruising running back LeGarrette Blount, equally bruising tight end Rob Gronkowski, and not bruising but still effective slot receiver Julian Edelman for touchdown opportunities in Tom Brady’s offense.

Going from being the guy in NO to another guy in NE could very well take a toll on Cooks’ production, and going from the free slinging Drew Brees to a more controlled, patient quarterback in Brady may hinder Cooks’ big play capabilities. Expect Sanders to put up similar numbers in 2017, meaning any dip in Cooks’ production, even a small one, will make their fantasy value virtually equal heading into the season. With Cooks going toward the end of the second round, near players like LeSean McCoy and Rob Gronkowski, it would be wise to leave him on the board and snag a player like Sanders five rounds later, virtually guaranteeing you similar production.

Melvin Gordon (1.11) vs. Mark Ingram (7.03)

Hear me out here. Melvin Gordon was well on the way to his first 1,000 yard rushing season last year before an injury cost him the last three games, leaving him just short at 997 yards. He still had an incredible season, tacking on 419 receiving yards and two touchdowns along with his 10 rushing touchdowns, including six in the first four games. Mark Ingram was impressive as well, finishing with 1,043 yards and six touchdowns, as well as 319 receiving yards and four touchdowns. While Gordon finished with more yards and more touchdowns, (in three less games) the difference (1416 total yards and 12 touchdowns for Gordon, 1362 and 10 for Ingram) is minimal, especially with a six round difference in ADP.

Gordon's injury history and the Chargers lack of upgrades on the offensive end are concerning. Expecting Gordon to surpass last year's numbers seems overly optimistic, whereas Ingram will likely get more opportunities with the loss of Brandin Cooks forcing the Saints to focus on the run game more often. Adrian Peterson's presence complicates things, but don't expect him to suddenly take over lead-back duties. Fantasy Sharks projects 900 yards and six touchdowns for Ingram and 1,050 yards and six touchdowns for Gordon. While Gordon is likely to finish higher than Ingram overall, I would rather grab Aaron Rodgers or T.Y. Hilton at the end of the first and wait and grab Ingram in the seventh.

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