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Welcome to my 2024 team by team prospect rankings. Over the next few months, I'll be going through all 30 MLB farm systems, ranking my top 10 in each system, and discussing the profiles and long-term outlooks of these players.
Leading off in this series will be the Arizona Diamondbacks who surprisingly made the National League postseason and swept the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card round. A big reason for that was the massive rookie season put together by former #1 overall prospect, Corbin Carroll. But even with many of their top prospects graduating, this is still an exciting system with intriguing prospects throughout, especially on the hitting side.
If you want to see the full Top 40 plus more rankings and content, then head on over to my Patreon!
Arizona Diamondbacks Top Prospects
1. Jordan Lawlar, SS
Age on 4/1/2024: 21.7 | Highest Level: MLB | ETA: Debuted
Let me start by saying you should absolutely not change your outlook on Jordan Lawlar due to his 4/31 performance with Arizona after his callup. That literally means NOTHING. Lawlar is coming off back-to-back seasons of 15+ HR and 35+ SB in 105 games or less while also posting a walk rate north of 11% in both seasons. Lawlar also dropped his strikeout rate from 25.1% to 20.6% and his SwStr rate from 23.4% to 12.2%. Overall, Lawlar has slashed .291/.390/.503 in 207 minor league games with a 650 PA pace of 25 home runs and 52 stolen bases.
Given his above-average power, plus speed, and solid hit tool, Lawlar has the upside to develop into a major impact fantasy shortstop with 20+/30+ upside along with a decent AVG and OBP. He's a no-doubt top-6 prospect for fantasy purposes.
2. Druw Jones, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 20.3 | Highest Level: Lo-A | ETA: 2025
While second-generation star Druw Jones didn't exactly start his professional career with a bang this season, there's still plenty to be excited about long-term. In 41 games this season between the Complex Level and Lo-A California League, Jones slashed .238/.353/.327 with two home runs and nine stolen bases to go along with a 15% walk rate and 26.1% strikeout rate. It was encouraging to see Jones walk at a high clip, and he also kept his SwStr rate in check as well at 12.5%. However, Jones also ran a contact rate below 70% and his groundball rate sat at a whopping 59.8%. Having your contact rate and groundball rate that close together is never a good thing.
Long-term, Jones could be a difference-maker in fantasy given his elite speed, but only if he's able to make strides moving forward with his contact and quality of contact. Even if he's just a .270 hitter who adds around 15 home runs annually, that could make him a top-100 or better player for fantasy when you factor in his upside to add more than 40 steals annually.
3. Tommy Troy, SS
Age on 4/1/2024: 22.3 | Highest Level: Hi-A | ETA: 2025
When it comes to prospects, there are always a few groups that get undervalued. One of those groups are the prospects that are solid across the board but don't really stand out in any one area. That's the group Tommy Troy falls into. Troy was a three-year starter at Stanford and really broke out during his final season on campus, racking up 17 home runs and 17 steals in 58 games with a .394/.478/.679 slash line. In the middle of those three seasons, Troy also had two impressive showings in the Cape Cod League.
As mentioned above, Troy doesn't possess any stand out tools, but he's an above-average hitter with at least average power and speed that could develop into a well-rounded player for fantasy purposes. In his 27 games in the Arizona system after being selected 12th overall in the 2023 draft, Troy slashed a respectable .271/.374/.469 with four home runs and nine steals.
4. Ivan Melendez, 1B/3B
Age on 4/1/2024: 24.3 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2024
It it wasn't for one single yet massively important part of the profile, Ivan Melendez would likely be 50 spots higher in my overall rankings. With elite raw power, Melendez profiles as a potential middle of the order bat with the upside to approach 40 homers over a full season of plate appearances. However, that one issue is the major swing and miss element that Melendez can't seem to shake.
While he hit 30 home runs in just 96 games this season, that came with a 34.3% strikeout rate and 18.5% swinging strike rate. Melendez also only walked 7.3% of the time overall and that dropped to 5.9% in Double-A. He's simply too aggressive and doesn't have the contact skills to back it up. If Melendez wants to flourish as a middle of the order thumper, he's going to need to make better swing decisions than he is currently.
5. Jack Hurley, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 22.0 | Highest Level: Hi-A | ETA: 2025
One of my favorite value targets in 2023 FYPD drafts is former Virginia Tech outfielder, Jack Hurley. A player's draft slot often factors more into their perceived value than it should and Hurley being a third round pick will likely keep his value in check, at least through FYPD drafts this offseason and heading into 2024. In his final season on campus, Hurley slashed .320/.414/.714 with 15 doubles and 17 home runs in 45 games and then hit .276 with a .374 OBP and 10 steals in 33 games between the Complex Level, Lo-A, and Hi-A following the draft.
While Hurley isn't quite the pure hitter that Troy is, there's higher power/speed upside here as Hurley possesses above-average raw power and above-average to plus speed as well. He's going to be one of the prospects I'll likely have multiple shares of once all of my FYPDs are over this offseason.
6. Kristian Robinson, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 23.3 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2025
Welcome back to fantasy relevance Kristian Robinson! Honestly, it's really exciting to have Robinson back and performing well after such a long layoff. And this ranking might prove to be way too low when we look back after the 2024 season. Or maybe I'm being too aggressive, who knows.
After more than a three-year layoff, Robinson returned to action and slashed .283/.382/.532 in 65 games between Lo-A, Hi-A, and Double-A, adding 26 extra-base hits, 14 home runs, and 23 steals. There were some swing and miss issues as well though as Robinson struck out 31.6% of the time with an 18% swinging strike rate. However, I'm willing to give him some sort of a pass there given how long he was out of game action. This area will certainly need to be addressed in 2024, but Robinson wasted no time reminding people in 2023 how much upside he has offensively.
7. Jorge Barrosa, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 23.2 | Highest Level: AAA | ETA: 2024
Jorge Barrosa is a difficult player for me to rank long-term. An undersized switch-hitter, Barrosa has consistently displayed above-average contact skills and has majorly improved his approach over the last two seasons. Back in 2021 between Lo-A and Hi-A, Barrosa walked just 6.7% of the time but has increased that to 12.1% in 2022 and 15.9% in 2023. All while keeping his strikeout rate in the 15-18% range in each season.
Barrosa is also a plus runner and solid defender in center field which adds value to his name for real-life baseball. However, I'm not sure I can see him being more than a 10-12 home run hitter that maxes out at 15 home runs. If that comes with a good AVG/OBP and 20+ steals, than Barrosa will still be able to provide fantasy value. However, the upside isn't off the charts here.
8. Dominic Fletcher, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 26.6 | Highest Level: MLB | ETA: Debuted
It's easy to say that a case of prospect fatigues has set in with Dominic Fletcher. Drafted back in the pre-COVID times (2019), Fletcher has accrued 1604 minor league plate appearances and 102 with Arizona during the 2023 season. And despite being a .295 career hitter in the minors and hitting .301 with Arizona, Fletcher's perceived value isn't overly high right now.
Is the upside substantial? No. But Fletcher is an above-average hitter with average raw power, maybe a tick above. If everything clicks, maybe he can turn into a Nick Markakis type of player. And since prospect fatigue has set in here, Fletcher makes for a decent value target in dynasty leagues this offseason.
9. Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B/1B
Age on 4/1/2024: 20.8 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2024
A player I nicknamed the Thigh Master in last year's Arizona Fall League, Deyvison De Los Santos is certainly an intriguing prospect, but also a flawed one. The raw power in the profile is prominent and impressive, but De Los Santos' approach has left plenty to be desired. In 2022 and 2023, De Los Santos has posted a 6.1% and 5.2% walk rate respectively while striking out around 26% of the time in each season. WHile that's not a terrible strikeout rate, De Los Santos' aggressiveness has already been exposed in the minors and will continue to be exposed more frequently by more advanced pitching as he inches closer to the Majors.
As of now, De Los Santos projects as a .220-.230 hitter with 30+ home runs, but he's going to need to learn how to be a more selective hitter if he wants to develop into a Major League regular. I'm still hoping that can happen to some degree as De Los Santos is still only 20 years old and has been young for every level he's been at over the last two seasons.
10. Cristofer Torin, SS/2B
Age on 4/1/2024: 18.8 | Highest Level: Lo-A | ETA: 2026
Signed out of Venezuela in January 2022, Cristofer Torin is one of the more intriguing prospects in the lower levels of this Arizona system. Torin has diplayed a solid feel for hitting and pitch recognition so far in his two professional seasons, walking more than he has struck out while hitting .296 with a .409 OBP. Torin is also at least an average runner, maybe a tick above. However, the X-Factor here will be how much power he adds and provides moving forward. As of now, Torin is a below-average power bat and that's really going to limit his value for fantasy baseball.
If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see the full Top 40 along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
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