Early ADP Variations: Yahoo's Overvalued and Undervalued Players

July 11, 2020

Justin Carter evaluates early ADP for 2020 fantasy football leagues by finding overvalued and undervalued draft targets on Yahoo.

Every fantasy football platform is different. There are the obvious ways they differ -- the way their apps look, the different drafting interfaces, etc. -- but there are also less obvious ways they differ. One of those ways is how their rankings and ADP look.

Because there's no such thing as a universal rankings order in fantasy football, every list you see is going to be slightly different. That's where an observant fantasy football player can pounce: by knowing which players are overvalued and undervalued in a site's rankings, they can make better draft picks, setting them up for success.

Today, I'm looking at the current numbers on Yahoo to see which players are getting overvalued and which are getting undervalued by comparing Yahoo's current ADP data (which is for 0.5 PPR leagues) against the average 0.5 PPR ADP data on FantasyPros.

Yahoo's Undervalued Players

Chris Godwin (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Yahoo ADP: 21st
Average ADP: 17th

Godwin's not a huge value on Yahoo, but it seems that at least a few people in the fantasy world are thinking "well, Tom Brady can't throw anymore, so let's downgrade Chris Godwin some."

But Godwin's ability to play inside and outside should make him much more Brady-proof than fellow wideout Mike Evans. Godwin can be used like the Patriots used Julian Edelman, only with 4.42 speed instead of 4.57 speed. Don't forget that Godwin led the NFL in yards after the catch last year; he won't need Brady to put up Jameis Winston air yardage to be effective.

Calvin Ridley (WR, Atlanta Falcons)

Yahoo ADP: 55th
Average ADP: 43rd

I recently made my debut on RotoBaller's SiriusXM radio show and was asked to give some thoughts on various players. I'm not sure anyone I was asked about gave me more "oh no what do I think of this guy" anxiety than Calvin Ridley.

I'm conflicted on what I see Ridley doing in his third season. 1,000 yards seems within reach. Something between the seven touchdowns he had last year and the 10 he had as a rookie does too. But Ridley's ceiling feels blocked by how much this team uses Julio Jones, who had 157 targets last year and since 2015 has at least 148 targets in any season where he played 16 games.

Ridley might be one of the best No. 2 receivers in the NFL this year, though, and while his overall ceiling is limited by Jones, there's no reason he couldn't be an extremely valuable player, and he's currently being drafted about a round later on Yahoo than on other platforms. If you can get Ridley where he's going in Yahoo leagues, he's a good value.

T.Y. Hilton (WR, Indianapolis Colts)

Yahoo ADP: 67th
Average ADP: 53rd

Maybe your feelings on T.Y. Hilton are influenced negatively by the fact that he's missed eight games over the past two years or by your worries about Philip Rivers, but I'm relatively high on Hilton this season for a number of reasons. The first is that while Hilton is on the ground end of 30 now, he's got a proven track record of NFL success and averaged 90.7 yards per game in 2018 before a down year last season.

The other is that Rivers might be losing a step, but he's still got that whole "reckless gunslinger" thing going on, which will create air yards and chances for Hilton to be the deep threat he was with Andrew Luck. Going 67th overall on Yahoo is a steal when you factor in the upside Hilton has.

A.J. Green (WR, Cincinnati Bengals)

Yahoo ADP: 77th
Average ADP: 66th

All the things I said about T.Y. Hilton apply here except Green has much more injury downside. Still, this will be a pass-heavy offense with new quarterback Joe Burrow, who is coming off a historic season for LSU that saw him shatter the NCAA passing touchdown record.

A healthy Green will get plenty of opportunities to be the No. 1 wide receiver on what should be a much-improved offense, and at 77th overall, you can get him late enough that you won't even be hurt much if he winds up injured again.

Jarvis Landry (WR, Cleveland Browns)

Yahoo ADP: 89th
Average ADP: 70th

So, Landry had hip surgery this offseason, but as of now, all expectations are that he'll be ready to go in Week 1. If so, you're getting a huge discount -- in Yahoo leagues and everywhere else, really -- on a guy who is coming off a career-high 1,174 yards in 2019.

While his Browns career hasn't featured quite the same reception upside that he had with the Dolphins, Landry's still been a productive receiver in his two years in Cleveland, and a third-year leap by Mayfield would give Landry even more chances to succeed. For example, Landry ranked just 89th among wide receivers in catchable target percentage last year. An increased percentage on on-target looks should lead to increased production.

Yahoo's Overvalued Players

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, Pittsburgh Steelers)

Yahoo ADP: 31st
Average ADP: 42nd

Smith-Schuster is definitely higher in the ADP on Yahoo than he is other places, but I'm not quite so sure that's a bad thing. JuJu will still be just 23 when the 2020 season starts and while he's coming off a disappointing third NFL season that saw him averaged 46 receiving yards per game over 12 appearances, we're still talking about a guy whose age-22 season featured 111 catches for 1,426 yards.

He gets his quarterback back this year as well, so while he's being drafted higher than other places, I don't think you need to instantly fade Smith-Schuster in your Yahoo drafts.

Todd Gurley (RB, Atlanta Falcons)

Yahoo ADP: 30th
Average ADP: 42nd

Now, here's someone I would consider fading.

Gurley's a top-tier running back when healthy, but he's dealing with -- and will forever be dealing with -- arthritis in his knee. That degenerative issue played a part in Gurley dropping to 3.8 yards per carry last season and seeing his receptions per game cut in half.

It's hard to make a solid argument for 2020 being a bounce-back season for Gurley in his new digs in Atlanta, largely because the unpredictability of his knee means his floor is lower than virtually everyone around him. Maybe I'd feel okay taking him at his average ADP, but on Yahoo he's going a full round earlier. Too much risk there for me.

DeVante Parker (WR, Miami Dolphins)

Yahoo ADP: 45th
Average ADP: 56th

Parker's another player going about a round earlier on Yahoo. I like DeVante Parker. He finally had his breakout campaign last season, catching 128 passes for 1,201 yards and nine touchdowns. No matter how you slice it, Parker's 2019 season was really strong.

But the Dolphins will get Preston Williams back, and Parker's numbers looked a lot different when he shared the field with Williams. Per RotoViz's screener tool, his numbers with Williams in and out of the lineup looked like this:

I'm concerned about regression from Parker when the Dolphins have more options on the field, and I'd be more comfortable with some guys Yahoo has below him like Tyler Lockett (56th), Robert Woods (60th), and D.K. Metcalf (63rd).

Raheem Mostert (RB, San Francisco 49ers)

Yahoo ADP: 46th
Average ADP: 63rd

My feelings on Raheem Mostert are complicated. Yes, he has a 95th percentile 40-yard dash and ranked third among running backs in production premium and 12th in yards created per touch. But he's also 28, has one year of production at the NFL level, and while we all want the Niners to make him their lead back, Kyle Shanahan's history suggests that won't happen:

No one way I'd want Mostert at 46th overall. His average ADP is much more in line with where I'd consider taking him.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Yahoo ADP: 72nd
Average ADP: 89th

Because Yahoo is a more widely used platform that some of the others that factor into the average ADP, there's a tendency for more casual players to be there influencing the numbers, which means name recognition comes into play.

Take Gronk, for instance. His average ADP is 89th, but he's being drafted 72nd on Yahoo because he's Gronk. But Gronk's also returning after a one-year retirement, has a long history of being banged up, is on a team that has O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate also at the position, and is being coached by Bruce Arians, who traditionally hasn't game planned in a way that helps his team's tight ends.

That last part likely changes some when you factor in that quarterback Tom Brady's arm isn't going to be able to lead the kind of vertical passing game Arians likes, but the other three things matter. Will Tampa Bay try to manage Gronk to keep him healthy for a playoff run? Is he better than Howard at this point?

San Francisco 49ers D/ST

Yahoo ADP: 64th
Average ADP: 101st

Come on, y'all. Don't take a defense at Pick 64. There's too much unpredictability when it comes to defense on a year-to-year basis.

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