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Week 16 Consistency Report - Floors and Ceilings

It amazes me that we are already at the end of December in Week 16 of the 2017 season. We spent all offseason preparing for this year and now it is all or nothing for many teams. To those of you in the championship, I congratulate you for making it, a feat in and of itself. To everyone else looking to next year already, keep paying attention to this season and the playoffs. Situations are still changing that can affect depth charts next year and you want to be sure you are in the know with everything happening in the NFL.

For everyone in the championship, you need to have consistency in your lineups, now more than ever. I will assume that you have an elite core of players that have carried you this far, but like the past two weeks, duds will kill your week and may cost you the ship. Floors are just as nice as ceilings, especially when looking for replacements to key players that got injured last week like Antonio Brown, Rex Burkhead, or Davante Adams. Maybe some of you are lucky enough to be getting Ezekiel Elliott back this week!

So, without further introduction, here is Week 16's consistency charts for each position:

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Quarterbacks

It is time for us in the fantasy community to start taking Jimmy Garoppolo very, very, very seriously. Since becoming the starter, Garoppolo has increased his fantasy points every single week: 5.1, 10.5, 15.1, 19.6. Through four weeks, he has already established a connection with Marquise Goodwin and Garrett Celek and has shown the poise needed from franchise quarterbacks to win games in the clutch.

Even though he has one of the worst CORs among QBs over the past five weeks and is not startable this week in the championship, he is the type of player fantasy owners need to watch for next season. Assuming he stays in San Francisco, Garoppolo will enter the season as a major sleeper pick for redraft and a top-15 option at the position. A second season under head coach Kyle Shanahan with Pierre Garcon coming back from injury on top of his favorite targets in Goodwin and Celek, about $100 million in cap space for the Niners to use in free agency, and high draft capital in a loaded 2018 draft, the Niners can be very dangerous next year. People who were excited for the new LA Rams in 2017 should also be very excited for the future of San Francisco and the potential for massive fantasy production offensively. He will be a heavy target of mine for redraft next year and already a major target for me in dynasty, both in 1QB leagues and superflex.

 

Running Backs

If there is one take I am planting my flag on for championship week, it's this: Jordan Howard is a trap in Week 16. Despite being RB12 on the season, Howard has the highest CV among the top-15 running backs and is near the bottom of the list in COR both yearly and in the past five weeks.

Since Week 11, Howard has been one of the most inconsistent running backs in fantasy. He has two games under five points but also two games above 18. Looking at Week 16, the Bears play at home against the Browns. To many owners, that may seem like a cake matchup. I mean, it is the Browns. However, on the season the Browns are 20th in fantasy points given up to the running back position. They are averaging 22.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, most of which is through the air. For Howard, his fantasy weeks rely heavily on scoring touchdowns more than yards or receptions. On the season, the Browns have given up the seventh LEAST amount of rushing touchdowns, meaning Howard may be very limited against a formidable rushing defense in Cleveland. This is why I believe Howard is a trap this week and I would not trust him as a core piece of my championship lineup.

 

Wide Receivers

I should make it known that I am not a Niners fan, but I need to talk about Maquise Goodwin. Athletically, the dude is a freak of nature and a favorite of Player Profiler. Fantasy-wise, owners struck gold this season. Despite being the WR31 on the season, Goodwin is the WR18 over the past five weeks and the WR7 over the past three weeks. He has established himself already as the favorite target for Jimmy Garoppolo, who I have already expressed my love for, and has been a consistent fantasy producer since Garoppolo has taken over.

In fact, Goodwin has the second highest COR among wide receivers over the past five weeks. He has not scored under double-digit fantasy points since Week 9 and has three top-20 performances in that time period. However, Goodwin and the Niners take on the Jaguars in Week 16. Because of this, I am not advocating the start of any 49ers players this week against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Looking ahead to next season, however, I am very optimistic about Goodwin's outlook, even with the return of Garcon or even a big free agent signing like Allen Robinson or Sammy Watkins in the offseason. He is an electric player in a Kyle Shanahan offense that made Taylor Gabriel a viable fantasy option in 2016 and I am excited for Goodwin's future with the 49ers.

 

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle may be a league winner for some teams this week. On the season, Doyle is the TE8 with the ninth highest COR among tight ends. He has been fairly inconsistent on the year, shown by his very high CV of almost 65%. However, Doyle has been one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the past five weeks as shown by the chart below.

Saying he has been one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the past five weeks may be a slight exaggeration, especially if you are a Doyle owner. Since Week 11, Doyle has posted two top-12 finishes, but also two finishes outside the top-15. As inconsistent as that may seem, Doyle is still a very high-upside play in Week 16, as the Colts take on the Raven Saturday afternoon. Now, do not let the Ravens defense scare you away from Doyle. On the year, the Ravens are the ninth worst against the tight end position for fantasy, with most of the damage coming through receptions. Doyle is a PPR machine, so this matchup in Week 16 may be a godsend to some owners. I would be confident starting Doyle as a top-5 option at the position, sitting him for only the elite options like Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, or Delanie Walker.

 

Flex

 

More Week 16 Lineup Prep




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

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Kevin Durant

Becomes First Player to Make All-NBA Team With Five Franchises
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Victor Wembanyama Lead All-NBA First Team
Taylor Hall

Enjoying Life in Carolina
Mark Stone

Returns to Action Sunday
Cale Makar

Rejoins Avalanche Lineup Sunday
Cason Wallace

Joins Starting Unit Sunday
De'Aaron Fox

Doesn't "Feel Great" Entering Game 4
Jalen Williams

Won't Play Sunday
Christian Watson

Is Christian Watson on the Verge of a Legitimate Breakout?
Khalil Shakir

Dynasty Value in Decline
Travis Hunter

Still a Risky Buy, Even at his Sunken Dynasty Cost
Gunnar Helm

a Dynasty Sleeper with Room to Grow
Drake Maye

Is Drake Maye Becoming the Most Valuable Player in Superflex Dynasty Leagues?
Dylan Cease

Removed From Sunday's Start With Hamstring Discomfort
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Exits Sunday's Game Early with Elbow Contusion
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Reds-Cardinals Game Postponed on Sunday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Place Edward Cabrera on the 15-Day Injured List
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Win at Charlotte
Tyler Reddick

on Pole for Coca-Cola 600
Christopher Bell

Could Break Out of Slump
Kyle Larson

May have A Solid Day at Charlotte
Ryan Blaney

Is A DFS Risk for Charlotte Lineups
William Byron

Could have A Great DFS Performance at Charlotte
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Is A Solid Tournament Option for Charlotte DFS Lineups
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May not be Worth his Salary for Charlotte DFS Lineups
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a Chalk DFS Pick at Charlotte
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Dynasty Value Back on the Rise
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an Overlooked Buy Candidate for Contending Dynasty Managers
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Easily Acquirable as a High-Value Insurance Back
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Tallies Series-High 24 Points on Saturday
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Struggles at the Line Saturday
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Delivers Clean Shooting Line Saturday
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Fills Box Score in Game 3 Win
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Magic Interview Jeff Van Gundy for Head-Coaching Position
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Extends Point Streak to Three Games
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Nets Two Goals in Painful Loss
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Delivers Two Assists in Crucial Win
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Scores in Second Consecutive Game
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Giannis Antetokounmpo

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Won't Play Sunday
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Off the Injury Report Ahead of Game 4
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Rays-Yankees Postponed on Saturday
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Posts 20 Points in Game 3 Loss
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Struggles From Deep in Friday's Loss
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Held to Four Rebounds in Game 3 Loss
Nazem Kadri

Contributes an Assist in Losing Effort
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Nets Lone Avalanche Goal Friday Night
Rasmus Andersson

Extends Assist Streak to Four Games
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Focuses on Playmaking in Friday's Win
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Enjoys Multi-Point Outing in Game 2 Win Friday
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Mickey Moniak

Heads to Injured List With Ankle Sprain
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Hurricanes Keep Faith in Frederik Andersen
Devon Levi

Attracting Interest From Senators
Scott Wedgewood

Starting Game 2 Against Golden Knights
Ben Hutton

Scratched for Game 2 Against Avalanche
Mark Stone

Won't Play Friday
Jackson Merrill

has Sore Ribs, Expected to Avoid Injured List
Cale Makar

Remains Out Friday
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Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Looking to Take Sophomore Leap
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Jadan Baugh Primed to Lead Florida Offense in 2026
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LSU Hires Ed Orgeron As Special Assistant
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North Carolina and South Carolina Cancel Home-And-Home Series
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Confidence High in Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor
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Reds-Cardinals Game Postponed on Friday
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has Hernia Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-10 Weeks
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Notre Dame-Stanford Rivalry Renewed Through 2028
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Ahmad Hardy Says He's "Back to the Road to Success"
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Texas Tech Graduate Judge Recuses Himself from Brendan Sorsby Case
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UCLA Tackle Jordan Davis Officially Eligible for 2026 Season
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Bret Bielema Supports Significant College Football Playoff Expansion
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Hoping to Build on Strong Myrtle Beach Finish
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Sungjae Im Brings Upside to TPC Craig Ranch
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Difficult to Trust at TPC Craig Ranch
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Withdraws From CJ Cup Byron Nelson
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Yandy Diaz Exits Early on Tuesday After Being Hit By Pitch
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Continues Search For Putting Form at TPC Craig Ranch
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking to Shake Off Poor Major Showing at TPC Craig Ranch
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is of No DFS Consideration This Week in Dallas
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is Not The Fun DFS Play He Used to Be
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to Make Season Debut on Friday Against Rays
Drake Baldwin

Braves Place Drake Baldwin on Injured List With Oblique Strain
CFB

Ezavier Crowell has Immediate Opportunity at Alabama
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Mark Bowman a Day 1 Impact Player for USC?
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Bill Belichick Says Relationship with First North Carolina Team "Wasn't Great"
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Kemario Taylor a Breakout Candidate at Quarterback
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Trinidad Chambliss the Undisputed Top SEC Quarterback Entering 2026?
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Rocco Becht The "Unifier" of Penn State's Roster
Jackson Holliday

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RANKINGS
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1B
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3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF