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Week 16 Consistency Report - Floors and Ceilings

It amazes me that we are already at the end of December in Week 16 of the 2017 season. We spent all offseason preparing for this year and now it is all or nothing for many teams. To those of you in the championship, I congratulate you for making it, a feat in and of itself. To everyone else looking to next year already, keep paying attention to this season and the playoffs. Situations are still changing that can affect depth charts next year and you want to be sure you are in the know with everything happening in the NFL.

For everyone in the championship, you need to have consistency in your lineups, now more than ever. I will assume that you have an elite core of players that have carried you this far, but like the past two weeks, duds will kill your week and may cost you the ship. Floors are just as nice as ceilings, especially when looking for replacements to key players that got injured last week like Antonio Brown, Rex Burkhead, or Davante Adams. Maybe some of you are lucky enough to be getting Ezekiel Elliott back this week!

So, without further introduction, here is Week 16's consistency charts for each position:

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Quarterbacks

It is time for us in the fantasy community to start taking Jimmy Garoppolo very, very, very seriously. Since becoming the starter, Garoppolo has increased his fantasy points every single week: 5.1, 10.5, 15.1, 19.6. Through four weeks, he has already established a connection with Marquise Goodwin and Garrett Celek and has shown the poise needed from franchise quarterbacks to win games in the clutch.

Even though he has one of the worst CORs among QBs over the past five weeks and is not startable this week in the championship, he is the type of player fantasy owners need to watch for next season. Assuming he stays in San Francisco, Garoppolo will enter the season as a major sleeper pick for redraft and a top-15 option at the position. A second season under head coach Kyle Shanahan with Pierre Garcon coming back from injury on top of his favorite targets in Goodwin and Celek, about $100 million in cap space for the Niners to use in free agency, and high draft capital in a loaded 2018 draft, the Niners can be very dangerous next year. People who were excited for the new LA Rams in 2017 should also be very excited for the future of San Francisco and the potential for massive fantasy production offensively. He will be a heavy target of mine for redraft next year and already a major target for me in dynasty, both in 1QB leagues and superflex.

 

Running Backs

If there is one take I am planting my flag on for championship week, it's this: Jordan Howard is a trap in Week 16. Despite being RB12 on the season, Howard has the highest CV among the top-15 running backs and is near the bottom of the list in COR both yearly and in the past five weeks.

Since Week 11, Howard has been one of the most inconsistent running backs in fantasy. He has two games under five points but also two games above 18. Looking at Week 16, the Bears play at home against the Browns. To many owners, that may seem like a cake matchup. I mean, it is the Browns. However, on the season the Browns are 20th in fantasy points given up to the running back position. They are averaging 22.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, most of which is through the air. For Howard, his fantasy weeks rely heavily on scoring touchdowns more than yards or receptions. On the season, the Browns have given up the seventh LEAST amount of rushing touchdowns, meaning Howard may be very limited against a formidable rushing defense in Cleveland. This is why I believe Howard is a trap this week and I would not trust him as a core piece of my championship lineup.

 

Wide Receivers

I should make it known that I am not a Niners fan, but I need to talk about Maquise Goodwin. Athletically, the dude is a freak of nature and a favorite of Player Profiler. Fantasy-wise, owners struck gold this season. Despite being the WR31 on the season, Goodwin is the WR18 over the past five weeks and the WR7 over the past three weeks. He has established himself already as the favorite target for Jimmy Garoppolo, who I have already expressed my love for, and has been a consistent fantasy producer since Garoppolo has taken over.

In fact, Goodwin has the second highest COR among wide receivers over the past five weeks. He has not scored under double-digit fantasy points since Week 9 and has three top-20 performances in that time period. However, Goodwin and the Niners take on the Jaguars in Week 16. Because of this, I am not advocating the start of any 49ers players this week against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Looking ahead to next season, however, I am very optimistic about Goodwin's outlook, even with the return of Garcon or even a big free agent signing like Allen Robinson or Sammy Watkins in the offseason. He is an electric player in a Kyle Shanahan offense that made Taylor Gabriel a viable fantasy option in 2016 and I am excited for Goodwin's future with the 49ers.

 

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle may be a league winner for some teams this week. On the season, Doyle is the TE8 with the ninth highest COR among tight ends. He has been fairly inconsistent on the year, shown by his very high CV of almost 65%. However, Doyle has been one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the past five weeks as shown by the chart below.

Saying he has been one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the past five weeks may be a slight exaggeration, especially if you are a Doyle owner. Since Week 11, Doyle has posted two top-12 finishes, but also two finishes outside the top-15. As inconsistent as that may seem, Doyle is still a very high-upside play in Week 16, as the Colts take on the Raven Saturday afternoon. Now, do not let the Ravens defense scare you away from Doyle. On the year, the Ravens are the ninth worst against the tight end position for fantasy, with most of the damage coming through receptions. Doyle is a PPR machine, so this matchup in Week 16 may be a godsend to some owners. I would be confident starting Doyle as a top-5 option at the position, sitting him for only the elite options like Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, or Delanie Walker.

 

Flex

 

More Week 16 Lineup Prep




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Keegan Bradley

Looking to Rebound at Colonial
Tory Horton

Could Do Some Stuff "Toward the End of Spring"
Patrick Mahomes

Takes Part in First OTA Practice on Tuesday
Los Angeles Chargers

Derwin James Jr. Becomes Highest-Paid Safety for the Second Time in his Career
Chris Brooks

Emerging as Top Handcuff to Stash?
MarShawn Lloyd

Sees Short-Term Value Soar
Jared McCain

Moves into Starting Five
Boston Celtics

Joe Mazzulla Wins Coach of the Year
Jalen Williams

is Ruled Out for Game 5 on Tuesday
Bucky Irving

is Expected to be Ready for Training Camp
Zion Williamson

to See More Versatile Role
Parker Washington

Jaguars Think Parker Washington Can Replicate Second-Half Production
Cleveland Cavaliers

Kenny Atkinson to Remain Cavaliers Head Coach Next Season
Josh Jacobs

Arrested on Five Charges, Booked Into Jail
Claude Giroux

Planning to Return for 20th NHL Campaign
Josh Sweat

Cardinals Receiving Trade Calls on Josh Sweat
Carter Hart

Aiming for Sixth Consecutive Win Tuesday
Tetairoa McMillan

Working With the Training Staff on Tuesday
Evgeni Malkin

Inks New One-Year Deal With Penguins
Mackenzie Blackwood

in Net for Game 4 Against Golden Knights
Valeri Nichushkin

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Nathan MacKinnon

Will Suit Up Tuesday
Jerome Ford

Is it Time for Dynasty Managers to Drop Jerome Ford?
John Metchie III

Poised for Breakout Season with New Team in 2026?
Jalen Milroe

Is Jalen Milroe Still Worth Stashing in Dynasty Formats Entering 2026?
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Is Kyle Pitts Sr. a Dynasty Sell-High Candidate Coming Off Breakout Season?
Nico Collins

Agrees to Contract Adjustment with Texans
Chris Brooks

Carries Buy-Low Dynasty Appeal into 2026
Ben Griffin

Looking to Repeat This Week at Colonial
Rasmus Hojgaard

a Player to Avoid at Charles Schwab Challenge
Hideki Matsuyama

Needs Solid Driving Week at Charles Schwab Challenge
Justin Thomas

Trending Well Ahead of Charles Schwab Challenge
Akshay Bhatia

Lacking Driving Prowess Needed at Colonial Country Club
NFL

NFL Unlikely to Expand to 18 Regular-Season Games by 2027
Sahith Theegala

Searching For Swing at Charles Schwab Challenge
Lamar Jackson

in Attendance at OTAs This Week
Bucky Irving

Expected Back in the Summer or Fall
CFB

DJ Lagway Looking to Rebound at Baylor
CFB

Josh Hoover Tasked With Leading Indiana Back to the Playoffs
CFB

Braylon Staley the Next 1,000-Yard Tennessee Receiver?
Jalen Tolbert

Does Jalen Tolbert Have Short-Term Dynasty Appeal?
CFB

Ahmad Hardy's Return Timeline Remains Unclear
Travis Etienne Jr.

Is Travis Etienne Jr. Still a Dynasty RB1 Following Change of Scenery?
Evan Mobley

Finishes Season-Ending Loss With 15 Points
James Harden

Wants to Stay in Cleveland
Donovan Mitchell

Remains Committed to Cavaliers
Mikal Bridges

Cools Off in Game 4 Against Cavaliers
OG Anunoby

Active on Both Ends in Blowout Win
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads Knicks in Scoring During Series-Clincher
Jalen Brunson

Named Eastern Conference Finals MVP
Ivan Demidov

Contributes an Assist in Losing Effort
Lane Hutson

Records Power-Play Goal in Game 3 Loss
Frederik Andersen

Enjoys Another Easy Night at the Office in Game 3
Shayne Gostisbehere

Scores First Postseason Goal
Taylor Hall

Ends Four-Game Goal Drought
Andrei Svechnikov

Scores Game 3 Winner in Overtime
Gage Jump

Athletics to Promote Top Pitching Prospect Gage Jump to Major Leagues
Tatsuya Imai

Two Relievers Combine to No-Hit the Rangers on Monday
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder is Ruled Out for Game 4 on Monday
Michael Porter Jr.

Nets Could Trade Michael Porter Jr.
Ajay Mitchell

is Ruled Out for Game 5
Jalen Williams

is Tagged as Questionable for Game 5
Valeri Nichushkin

Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin Uncertain for Game 4
Oliver Kapanen

Sitting as Healthy Scratch Monday
Max Domi

Out Indefinitely Due to Offseason Surgery Complications
Dylan Cease

Heading to Injured List With Hamstring Injury
Daniel Suarez

Wins at Charlotte in Rain-Shortened Coca-Cola 600
Christopher Bell

Finishes as the Runner-Up in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte
Denny Hamlin

Falls Short of Winning and Places Third at Charlotte
Tyler Reddick

Places Fourth After Leading Laps at Charlotte
Kyle Larson

Strong and Consistent Day Ends in Fifth at Charlotte
Devon Toews

Logs Two Assists In Game 3 Defeat
Brett Howden

Nets 10th Postseason Goal
Mitchell Marner

Delivers Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Mark Stone

Returns With Multi-Point Effort
Valeri Nichushkin

Exits Early Sunday
Nathan MacKinnon

Hurt in Game 3 Loss
Isaiah Hartenstein

Provides Steady Production in Defeat
Chet Holmgren

Has a Quiet Offensive Night on Sunday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Held Under 20 Points in Game 4
Stephon Castle

Hands Out Six Assists in Game 4 Win
Devin Vassell

Tallies 13 Points in Game 4 Win
Dylan Cease

Removed From Sunday's Start With Hamstring Discomfort
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Exits Sunday's Game Early with Elbow Contusion
MLB

Reds-Cardinals Game Postponed on Sunday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Place Edward Cabrera on the 15-Day Injured List
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Win at Charlotte
Tyler Reddick

on Pole for Coca-Cola 600
Christopher Bell

Could Break Out of Slump
Kyle Larson

May have A Solid Day at Charlotte
Ryan Blaney

Is A DFS Risk for Charlotte Lineups
William Byron

Could have A Great DFS Performance at Charlotte
Chase Briscoe

Is A Solid Tournament Option for Charlotte DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs

May not be Worth his Salary for Charlotte DFS Lineups
Chris Buescher

May be a Sneaky Tournament Option for Charlotte Lineups
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has Favorable Upside for Charlotte DFS Lineups
Ross Chastain

Is A Strong Addition for DFS Lineups at Charlotte
Austin Dillon

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Austin Dillon for Charlotte DFS Lineups?
Chase Elliott

Should Be Strong at Charlotte
Carson Hocevar

Confident for Coca-Cola 600
Corey Heim

a Chalk DFS Pick at Charlotte
Michael McDowell

Is Michael McDowell A Tournament Option for Charlotte Lineups?
MLB

Orioles-Tigers Game Postponed on Saturday
MLB

Rays-Yankees Postponed on Saturday
Mickey Moniak

Heads to Injured List With Ankle Sprain
Jackson Merrill

has Sore Ribs, Expected to Avoid Injured List
CFB

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Looking to Take Sophomore Leap
CFB

Jadan Baugh Primed to Lead Florida Offense in 2026
CFB

LSU Hires Ed Orgeron As Special Assistant
CFB

North Carolina and South Carolina Cancel Home-And-Home Series
CFB

Confidence High in Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor
MLB

Reds-Cardinals Game Postponed on Friday
Trevor Story

has Hernia Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-10 Weeks
Roman Anthony

Dealing With Sprained Ligament in his Finger
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Exits Early, X-Rays Come Back Negative
Robby Snelling

Will Undergo Tommy John Surgery
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