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Week 16 Consistency Report - Floors and Ceilings

It amazes me that we are already at the end of December in Week 16 of the 2017 season. We spent all offseason preparing for this year and now it is all or nothing for many teams. To those of you in the championship, I congratulate you for making it, a feat in and of itself. To everyone else looking to next year already, keep paying attention to this season and the playoffs. Situations are still changing that can affect depth charts next year and you want to be sure you are in the know with everything happening in the NFL.

For everyone in the championship, you need to have consistency in your lineups, now more than ever. I will assume that you have an elite core of players that have carried you this far, but like the past two weeks, duds will kill your week and may cost you the ship. Floors are just as nice as ceilings, especially when looking for replacements to key players that got injured last week like Antonio Brown, Rex Burkhead, or Davante Adams. Maybe some of you are lucky enough to be getting Ezekiel Elliott back this week!

So, without further introduction, here is Week 16's consistency charts for each position:

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Quarterbacks

It is time for us in the fantasy community to start taking Jimmy Garoppolo very, very, very seriously. Since becoming the starter, Garoppolo has increased his fantasy points every single week: 5.1, 10.5, 15.1, 19.6. Through four weeks, he has already established a connection with Marquise Goodwin and Garrett Celek and has shown the poise needed from franchise quarterbacks to win games in the clutch.

Even though he has one of the worst CORs among QBs over the past five weeks and is not startable this week in the championship, he is the type of player fantasy owners need to watch for next season. Assuming he stays in San Francisco, Garoppolo will enter the season as a major sleeper pick for redraft and a top-15 option at the position. A second season under head coach Kyle Shanahan with Pierre Garcon coming back from injury on top of his favorite targets in Goodwin and Celek, about $100 million in cap space for the Niners to use in free agency, and high draft capital in a loaded 2018 draft, the Niners can be very dangerous next year. People who were excited for the new LA Rams in 2017 should also be very excited for the future of San Francisco and the potential for massive fantasy production offensively. He will be a heavy target of mine for redraft next year and already a major target for me in dynasty, both in 1QB leagues and superflex.

 

Running Backs

If there is one take I am planting my flag on for championship week, it's this: Jordan Howard is a trap in Week 16. Despite being RB12 on the season, Howard has the highest CV among the top-15 running backs and is near the bottom of the list in COR both yearly and in the past five weeks.

Since Week 11, Howard has been one of the most inconsistent running backs in fantasy. He has two games under five points but also two games above 18. Looking at Week 16, the Bears play at home against the Browns. To many owners, that may seem like a cake matchup. I mean, it is the Browns. However, on the season the Browns are 20th in fantasy points given up to the running back position. They are averaging 22.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, most of which is through the air. For Howard, his fantasy weeks rely heavily on scoring touchdowns more than yards or receptions. On the season, the Browns have given up the seventh LEAST amount of rushing touchdowns, meaning Howard may be very limited against a formidable rushing defense in Cleveland. This is why I believe Howard is a trap this week and I would not trust him as a core piece of my championship lineup.

 

Wide Receivers

I should make it known that I am not a Niners fan, but I need to talk about Maquise Goodwin. Athletically, the dude is a freak of nature and a favorite of Player Profiler. Fantasy-wise, owners struck gold this season. Despite being the WR31 on the season, Goodwin is the WR18 over the past five weeks and the WR7 over the past three weeks. He has established himself already as the favorite target for Jimmy Garoppolo, who I have already expressed my love for, and has been a consistent fantasy producer since Garoppolo has taken over.

In fact, Goodwin has the second highest COR among wide receivers over the past five weeks. He has not scored under double-digit fantasy points since Week 9 and has three top-20 performances in that time period. However, Goodwin and the Niners take on the Jaguars in Week 16. Because of this, I am not advocating the start of any 49ers players this week against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Looking ahead to next season, however, I am very optimistic about Goodwin's outlook, even with the return of Garcon or even a big free agent signing like Allen Robinson or Sammy Watkins in the offseason. He is an electric player in a Kyle Shanahan offense that made Taylor Gabriel a viable fantasy option in 2016 and I am excited for Goodwin's future with the 49ers.

 

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle may be a league winner for some teams this week. On the season, Doyle is the TE8 with the ninth highest COR among tight ends. He has been fairly inconsistent on the year, shown by his very high CV of almost 65%. However, Doyle has been one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the past five weeks as shown by the chart below.

Saying he has been one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the past five weeks may be a slight exaggeration, especially if you are a Doyle owner. Since Week 11, Doyle has posted two top-12 finishes, but also two finishes outside the top-15. As inconsistent as that may seem, Doyle is still a very high-upside play in Week 16, as the Colts take on the Raven Saturday afternoon. Now, do not let the Ravens defense scare you away from Doyle. On the year, the Ravens are the ninth worst against the tight end position for fantasy, with most of the damage coming through receptions. Doyle is a PPR machine, so this matchup in Week 16 may be a godsend to some owners. I would be confident starting Doyle as a top-5 option at the position, sitting him for only the elite options like Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, or Delanie Walker.

 

Flex

 

More Week 16 Lineup Prep




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jonas Brodin

Still Out Saturday
Josh Manson

Could Return Saturday
Kaedan Korczak

Scratched for Game 3 Against Ducks
Radko Gudas

Likely to Remain Out Friday
Sam Carrick

Won't Play Friday
Isiah Pacheco

Can Isiah Pacheco Re-Establish His Dynasty Value in Detroit?
Rico Dowdle

Dynasty Ceiling Limited By Backfield Committee in Pittsburgh
Rashid Shaheed

a High-Risk, High-Reward Buy-Low Candidate for Dynasty Managers
Marcus Mariota

Is Marcus Mariota Worth Stashing as an Injury Replacement in Dynasty Leagues?
Jacoby Brissett

a Clear Sell-High Candidate for Dynasty Managers
Blake Snell

to Make Season Debut for Dodgers on Saturday
Najee Harris

Can Najee Harris Re-Establish Some Dynasty Value in 2026?
Cole Ragans

Royals Place Cole Ragans on Injured List With Elbow Impingement
Breece Hall

Jets Sign Breece Hall to Three-Year Extension Worth $45.75 Million
Sean Strickland

An Underdog At UFC 328
Khamzat Chimaev

Set For UFC 328 Main Event
Tatsuro Taira

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Joshua Van

Set For His First Title Defense
Alexander Volkov

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Nick Lodolo

Officially Activated, Making Season Debut on Friday
Denver Broncos

Broncos Sign GM George Paton to New Five-Year Deal
Brandon McManus

Packers Release Kicker Brandon McManus
New York Jets

Jets Talking to a "Number of Veteran Quarterbacks"
Travis Etienne Jr.

a Reliable Dynasty Starter Entering First Season With Saints
Kenneth Gainwell

Is Kenneth Gainwell's Dynasty Stock Still Rising After Offseason Change of Scenery?
Mac Jones

a Deep-League Dynasty Stash Candidate
Tez Johnson

Facing Uphill Battle for Playing Time in Tampa Bay
Jared Goff

Remains a High-Floor Dynasty QB2 Heading into 2026
De'Von Achane

Remains a High-End Dynasty RB Despite Uncertain Supporting Cast
Xavier Worthy

Chiefs Limited Xavier Worthy's Usage After Injury Last Year
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Not Ready to Discuss Extension With Rashee Rice?
Cade Otton

Remains a Quality Dynasty Depth Piece
CFB

Walker Lyons Could be Go-To Target for Bear Bachmeier
Austin Reaves

Scores 31 Points in Game 2 Defeat
T.J. Hockenson

Bounce-Back Chances Stifled by Improved Pass-Catching Depth
CFB

Ty Benefield a Potential Game-Changer for LSU Defense
Chet Holmgren

Anchors Thunder Past Lakers in Game 2
CFB

Hayden Lowe Set for Significant Role Following Miami's NFL Departures
Jordan Addison

Facing Competition for No. 2 Role?
Tobias Harris

Stays Hot in Game 2 Victory
Cade Cunningham

Pushes Pistons to 2-0 Series Lead
CFB

Taylor Wein in Position for Big Season on Oklahoma's Defensive Line
Jarrett Allen

Provides Bright Spot in Cavs' Game 2 Loss to Pistons
CFB

Rasheem Biles an Instant Impact Player for Texas
James Harden

Struggles in Game 2 Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Finishes Game 2 Loss with 31 Points
Gradey Dick

Open to Trade Away From Toronto
Michael Porter Jr.

Wants to Stay in Brooklyn
Charlotte Hornets

Hornets Extend Charles Lee After 25-Win Improvement
Jarred Vanderbilt

Ruled Out for Game 2 Against Thunder
Luke Kennard

Cleared to Play Thursday
Ayo Dosunmu

Considered Questionable for Game 3 Against Spurs
Anthony Edwards

Remains Questionable on Injury Report Ahead of Game 3
Mitchell Robinson

Probable for Friday's Action
Kevin Huerter

Remains Out Thursday
Sam Merrill

Unavailable Thursday
OG Anunoby

Tagged as Questionable for Friday
Joel Embiid

Listed as Questionable for Game 3 Against Knicks
Dan Vladar

Looks to Return to Winning Ways Thursday
Connor Dewar

Penguins Re-Sign Connor Dewar for Two Years
Mikko Rantanen

Played Through Torn MCL Late in the Season
Rasmus Dahlin

Ready to Go Friday
Alexander Nikishin

Set to Return Thursday
Christian Dvorak

Available Thursday
Owen Tippett

Remains Out Thursday
Roman Anthony

Heading for the Injured List
CFB

Sam Leavitt Expected to Be Full-Go for Fall Camp
Tarik Skubal

Could Return in 4-6 Weeks After Successful Elbow Surgery
Cole Ragans

Royals Hopeful That Cole Ragans Makes his Next Start
Paul George

Does a Little Bit of Everything in Game 2 Loss
Tyrese Maxey

Tallies Team-High 26 Points in Wednesday's Loss
Mark Stone

Nets Late Power-Play Goal in Losing Effort
Leo Carlsson

Pots Game-Winner Wednesday Night
Juraj Slafkovsky

Ends Point Drought in Game 1 Loss
Bowen Byram

Ties Franchise Record With Fourth Postseason Goal
Zach Benson

Posts Second Consecutive Multi-Point Game
Rasmus Dahlin

"Seems Fine" After Early Exit on Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan has Grade 2 Hamstring Strain, Expected to Miss 4-8 Weeks
Joe Ryan

Listed as Scheduled Starter for Saturday Against Cleveland
Tyler Glasnow

Not Expected to Land on the Injured List
Framber Valdez

Suspension Reduced to Five Games
Nils Hoglander

Will Miss World Championship Due to Injury
Christian Dvorak

Likely to Play in Game 3 Against Hurricanes
Owen Tippett

a Game-Time Decision Thursday
Framber Valdez

Suspended Six Games
Tyler Glasnow

Exits Early on Wednesday With Back Pain
CFB

Brauntae Johnson the Next Star in Notre Dame's Secondary?
CFB

Ethan Barbour a Name to Know in Georgia's Tight End Room
CFB

Payton Pierce Next Up at Linebacker for Ohio State
CFB

Javin Gordon to Play Significant Role for Tennessee?
CFB

Tanook Hines Stepping into WR1 Role for USC
CFB

Rueben Owens II has "Star Potential" in Fourth Campaign
Brandon Woodruff

has Fluid Drained From his Right Shoulder
Brandon Woodruff

to Resume Throwing on Saturday, Return Imminent?
Carlos Correa

to Have Season-Ending Ankle Surgery
Jacob Misiorowski

Listed as Friday's Probable Starter
Logan Webb

Dealing With Knee Discomfort
Carlos Correa

Expected to Miss Significant Time With Ankle Injury
Collin Morikawa

Withdraws From Truist Championship
Xander Schauffele

Carries Elite Form Into Quail Hollow
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Bounce Back at Truist Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick

Secures Third Win of 2026 Season
Patrick Cantlay

Continues Playing Well Heading to Truist Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Returns to Action For Truist Championship
Justin Thomas

Searching for Consistency at Quail Hollow
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Break Through at Quail Hollow
Adam Scott

Brings Strong Form to Quail Hollow
Robert MacIntyre

a Steady Option at Truist Championship
Jason Day

Looks to Overcome Approach Struggles at Quail Hollow
Akshay Bhatia

Looks for Complete Game at Truist Championship
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan Headed for Injured List With Hamstring Injury
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan Carted Off With Apparent Hamstring Injury on Tuesday
Justin Rose

to Continue Mid-Season Club Change at Truist Championship
Si Woo Kim

is Back to Peak Form Ahead of Truist Championship
Sam Burns

to Bounce Back at Truist Championship
Cameron Young

Looks to Carry Dominance to Quail Hollow
Rory McIlroy

Returns to Familiar Stomping Grounds This Week at Quail Hollow
Chris Gotterup

Looking to Bounce Back at Quail Hollow
MLB

Cardinals-Brewers Game Postponed on Tuesday
Tommy Fleetwood

Looking For Better Iron Play at Quail Hollow
CFB

Mario Craver Enters No. 1 Wide Receiver Role for Marcel Reed
CFB

LaNorris Sellers a Strong Rebound Candidate in 2026
CFB

Cam Coleman Poised for Monster Year at Texas?
CFB

Will Hammond Pushing to Be Ready for Week 1
Alex Fitzpatrick

Looking to Keep Up Ball-Striking Output at Quail Hollow
CFB

Notre Dame Leads College Football in Returning Snaps
CFB

Two Ole Miss Football Players Arrested, Charged with DUI
Ben Griffin

Looks Solid on the Surface Heading to Charlotte
Chase Elliott

Earns his Second Texas Motor Speedway Victory
Denny Hamlin

Misses Out on Winning at Texas
Alex Bowman

Finishes Third for the Second Week in a Row at Texas
Tyler Reddick

Earns Seventh Top-Five Finish of the Season at Texas
Chris Buescher

Scores his First Career Texas Finish in the Top Five
CFB

Bryce Underwood in Better Situation Entering Sophomore Season
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Emerging as Leader, Playmaker for UCLA
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated At UFC Perth
Carlos Prates

Shines At UFC Perth
Beneil Dariush

Suffers A First-Round TKO Loss
Quillan Salkilld

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Tim Elliott

Drops Decision At UFC Perth
Steve Erceg

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ollie Schmid

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Marwan Rahiki

Remains Unbeaten
Christopher Bell

Is Christopher Bell Worth Rostering for Texas Lineups?
William Byron

Might have the Speed to Compete for the Win at Texas
Joey Logano

Provides Solid Upside for Texas DFS Lineups
Chase Briscoe

Could Chase Briscoe be A Sneaky Pick for Texas Lineups?
Ty Gibbs

Should DFS Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Texas?
Daniel Suarez

Is Daniel Suarez Worth Rostering After Career-Best Starting Position at Texas?
Kyle Busch

Is a DFS Risk Starting in the Top 10 at Texas
Tyler Reddick

One of the Favorites to Win at Texas
Chase Elliott

Could Contend for Another Win at Texas
Carson Hocevar

on Pole at Texas
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wrecks in Practice at Texas
Chris Buescher

Looking to Continue Strong Run at Texas
Austin Dillon

Blows Engine in Practice at Texas
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