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Week 16 Consistency Report - Floors and Ceilings

It amazes me that we are already at the end of December in Week 16 of the 2017 season. We spent all offseason preparing for this year and now it is all or nothing for many teams. To those of you in the championship, I congratulate you for making it, a feat in and of itself. To everyone else looking to next year already, keep paying attention to this season and the playoffs. Situations are still changing that can affect depth charts next year and you want to be sure you are in the know with everything happening in the NFL.

For everyone in the championship, you need to have consistency in your lineups, now more than ever. I will assume that you have an elite core of players that have carried you this far, but like the past two weeks, duds will kill your week and may cost you the ship. Floors are just as nice as ceilings, especially when looking for replacements to key players that got injured last week like Antonio Brown, Rex Burkhead, or Davante Adams. Maybe some of you are lucky enough to be getting Ezekiel Elliott back this week!

So, without further introduction, here is Week 16's consistency charts for each position:

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Quarterbacks

It is time for us in the fantasy community to start taking Jimmy Garoppolo very, very, very seriously. Since becoming the starter, Garoppolo has increased his fantasy points every single week: 5.1, 10.5, 15.1, 19.6. Through four weeks, he has already established a connection with Marquise Goodwin and Garrett Celek and has shown the poise needed from franchise quarterbacks to win games in the clutch.

Even though he has one of the worst CORs among QBs over the past five weeks and is not startable this week in the championship, he is the type of player fantasy owners need to watch for next season. Assuming he stays in San Francisco, Garoppolo will enter the season as a major sleeper pick for redraft and a top-15 option at the position. A second season under head coach Kyle Shanahan with Pierre Garcon coming back from injury on top of his favorite targets in Goodwin and Celek, about $100 million in cap space for the Niners to use in free agency, and high draft capital in a loaded 2018 draft, the Niners can be very dangerous next year. People who were excited for the new LA Rams in 2017 should also be very excited for the future of San Francisco and the potential for massive fantasy production offensively. He will be a heavy target of mine for redraft next year and already a major target for me in dynasty, both in 1QB leagues and superflex.

 

Running Backs

If there is one take I am planting my flag on for championship week, it's this: Jordan Howard is a trap in Week 16. Despite being RB12 on the season, Howard has the highest CV among the top-15 running backs and is near the bottom of the list in COR both yearly and in the past five weeks.

Since Week 11, Howard has been one of the most inconsistent running backs in fantasy. He has two games under five points but also two games above 18. Looking at Week 16, the Bears play at home against the Browns. To many owners, that may seem like a cake matchup. I mean, it is the Browns. However, on the season the Browns are 20th in fantasy points given up to the running back position. They are averaging 22.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, most of which is through the air. For Howard, his fantasy weeks rely heavily on scoring touchdowns more than yards or receptions. On the season, the Browns have given up the seventh LEAST amount of rushing touchdowns, meaning Howard may be very limited against a formidable rushing defense in Cleveland. This is why I believe Howard is a trap this week and I would not trust him as a core piece of my championship lineup.

 

Wide Receivers

I should make it known that I am not a Niners fan, but I need to talk about Maquise Goodwin. Athletically, the dude is a freak of nature and a favorite of Player Profiler. Fantasy-wise, owners struck gold this season. Despite being the WR31 on the season, Goodwin is the WR18 over the past five weeks and the WR7 over the past three weeks. He has established himself already as the favorite target for Jimmy Garoppolo, who I have already expressed my love for, and has been a consistent fantasy producer since Garoppolo has taken over.

In fact, Goodwin has the second highest COR among wide receivers over the past five weeks. He has not scored under double-digit fantasy points since Week 9 and has three top-20 performances in that time period. However, Goodwin and the Niners take on the Jaguars in Week 16. Because of this, I am not advocating the start of any 49ers players this week against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Looking ahead to next season, however, I am very optimistic about Goodwin's outlook, even with the return of Garcon or even a big free agent signing like Allen Robinson or Sammy Watkins in the offseason. He is an electric player in a Kyle Shanahan offense that made Taylor Gabriel a viable fantasy option in 2016 and I am excited for Goodwin's future with the 49ers.

 

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle may be a league winner for some teams this week. On the season, Doyle is the TE8 with the ninth highest COR among tight ends. He has been fairly inconsistent on the year, shown by his very high CV of almost 65%. However, Doyle has been one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the past five weeks as shown by the chart below.

Saying he has been one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the past five weeks may be a slight exaggeration, especially if you are a Doyle owner. Since Week 11, Doyle has posted two top-12 finishes, but also two finishes outside the top-15. As inconsistent as that may seem, Doyle is still a very high-upside play in Week 16, as the Colts take on the Raven Saturday afternoon. Now, do not let the Ravens defense scare you away from Doyle. On the year, the Ravens are the ninth worst against the tight end position for fantasy, with most of the damage coming through receptions. Doyle is a PPR machine, so this matchup in Week 16 may be a godsend to some owners. I would be confident starting Doyle as a top-5 option at the position, sitting him for only the elite options like Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, or Delanie Walker.

 

Flex

 

More Week 16 Lineup Prep




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Lamar Jackson

Questionable to Return in Week 16 with Back Injury
Donovan Mitchell

Likely to Return on Monday Night
Willson Contreras

Shipped to the Red Sox
Patrick Kane

to Miss Fifth Consecutive Game
Tyson Kozak

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Jakob Poeltl

Back in the Lineup on Sunday Night
Jack Roslovic

Ready to Return Sunday
Alexandre Sarr

Ruled Out Against San Antonio
NJ

Arseni Gritsyuk Back in Devils Lineup Sunday
Marvin Bagley III

Ruled Out Against San Antonio
Timo Meier

Available Sunday
Davion Mitchell

Available on Sunday Night
Jack Hughes

Returns From 18-Game Absence Sunday
Andrew Wiggins

Cleared to Play on Sunday Night
J.T. Miller

Out Week-to-Week
Quinshon Judkins

Done for the Season with Broken Leg
Gardner Minshew

Likely Tore His ACL on Sunday
Nick Chubb

Officially Active Against Raiders in Week 16
Gardner Minshew

Won't Return in Week 16
Woody Marks

Officially Inactive for Week 16
Quinshon Judkins

Carted Off in Week 16, Ruled Out with Apparent Leg Injury
Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins Hope to Trade Tua Tagovailoa in the Offseason
Woody Marks

Not Expected to Play in Week 16
Washington Commanders

Commanders to Retain Dan Quinn, Fire Joe Whitt?
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Marcus Freeman is a Top Candidate in Giants' Head Coaching Search
Cincinnati Bengals

Zac Taylor Expected to Return as Bengals' Head Coach in 2026
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Pete Carroll's Future with Las Vegas Raiders in Doubt
Mike Conley

Nears Return After Missing Four Games
Tee Higgins

Active for Week 16 Against Dolphins
Brandon Clarke

Exits After Brief Appearance Against Wizards
Derrick Jones Jr.

Nears Return From Sprained MCL
Herbert Jones

Head Injury Cuts Night Short
Ivica Zubac

Leaves Early After Suffering Left Ankle Injury
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Exits Early With Left Leg Contusion
Tage Thompson

Scores in Sixth Consecutive Game
Jacob Fowler

Posts First Career Shutout
Jonatan Berggren

Totals Three Points Saturday
Jake Evans

to Sit Out Sunday's Game
Zach Werenski

Injured in Saturday's Loss
Frank Nazar

Expected to Miss Four Weeks
Woody Marks

Plans to Play Against Raiders in Week 16
Tee Higgins

Likely to Play at Miami on Sunday
Drake London

Expected to Return in Week 16
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Play, Will Ease Back In
Romeo Doubs

Questionable to Return Against Bears in Week 16
Jordan Love

Ruled Out with Concussion, Replaced by Malik Willis
Jalen Smith

Expected to Remain in Lineup Sunday
Ayo Dosunmu

Probable for Meeting With Hawks
Jordan Love

Evaluated for Concussion, Questionable to Return
Coby White

Iffy for Sunday
Andrew Wiggins

May Remain Out Sunday
Davion Mitchell

Questionable for Sunday
Tyler Herro

to Miss Fourth Straight Game Sunday
Trae Young

Available for Sunday's Tilt
Doug McDermott

Active on Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Misses Battle of Los Angeles
Mike Matheson

Returns Against Former Team Saturday
Timothy Liljegren

Misses Saturday's Game
Mackie Samoskevich

Out on Saturday
Anthony Cirelli

Available Against Hurricanes
Brandon Hagel

Added to Injured Reserve
Nikita Kucherov

a Game-Time Call Saturday
J.T. Miller

Injured in Saturday's Win
Zach Bogosian

Unavailable Saturday
Brandon Lowe

Pirates Acquire Brandon Lowe in Three-Team Trade
Shane Baz

Orioles Acquire Shane Baz From the Rays
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Darian Mensah Returning to Duke Next Season
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Josh Hoover Linked to Indiana in Transfer Portal
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Arch Manning Agrees to Reduced Compensation for 2026 Season
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Padres Bring Michael King Back on Three-Year Deal
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Will Pitch for Team USA in World Baseball Classic
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Will Muschamp Becoming Next Texas Defensive Coordinator
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Beau Pribula Set to Enter Transfer Portal
Bo Bichette

Willing to Make the Move to Second Base
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Jeremiyah Love Officially Heading to NFL Draft
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Jake Merklinger Leaving Tennessee for Transfer Portal
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Kansas State's Jayce Brown Intends to Transfer
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Nation's Leading Passer Drew Mestemaker to Enter Transfer Portal
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Phillies Planning to Start Justin Crawford in Center Field
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Jayden Maiava Signs New Deal to Return to USC
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Aidan Mizell Won't Return to Florida, Entering Transfer Portal
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East Carolina Targeting Jordan Davis as Next Offensive Coordinator
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Michigan QB Jadyn Davis Set to Enter Transfer Portal
CFB

Travis Williams Joining Texas A&M Defensive Staff

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