We Must Overreact Immediately! Week 7 Outliers

October 22, 2019

Week 7 of the 2019 fantasy football season brought many surprises and unexpected sleepers and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes common overreactions to such performances in order to provide reasonable advice to fantasy owners.

Week 7 seemed extremely fluky for fantasy football purposes.

Devonta Freeman was ejected, and players like Will Fuller, Adam Thielen and Kerryon Johnson were both forced from their games very early on which hurt a lot of fantasy owners. The Rams wide receivers were supposed to light the world on fire against a Falcons secondary that was struggling, but the game flow didn't really play into that narrative.

Out of all the positions that surprised us this week, wide receiver seemed to be the most volatile, several of which are highlighted below.

Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)

Week 7 Stats: 34-of-54, 251 yards, 2 TD

The Bears scored on their final two drives of the game against the Saints, both of which came with under five minutes remaining. In these two drives, Trubisky threw for 132 of his 251 yards and both of his touchdowns.

Bottom Line: Trubisky scored 13.28 of his 20.04 fantasy points in garbage time. The Bears play the Chargers in Week 8, but even in a decent matchup, Trubisky is difficult to trust outside of 2QB leagues.

Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)

Week 7 Stats: 14-of-21, 104 yards, 10 carries, 28 yards

The Cardinals had tremendous success on the ground in Week 7 against the Giants, handing the ball to Chase Edmonds 27 times for 126 yards. The Cardinals scored three offensive touchdowns on the day, and all of them went to Chase Edmonds in the ground game. Game flow didn't force the Cardinals to put the ball in the air much as the Giants made three costly turnovers in the game.

Bottom Line: Murray is always capable of getting it done as a runner, but he needs Christian Kirk back in the lineup in order to really explode as a passer.

Marvin Jones (WR, DET)

Week 7 Stats: 13 targets, 10 catches, 93 yards, 4 TD

Against the Vikings in 2018, Marvin Jones caught six balls for 88 yards in his one game against the Vikings. In 2017, Jones had two catches for 42 yards in their first matchup against the Vikings and six grabs for 109 yards and two touchdowns in the second.

Bottom Line: Marvin Jones has a strong history against the Vikings and he needs to be strongly considered in DFS and season-long lineups in Week 14 when these two teams face each other again. You may want to sell-high on Jones in a trade this week.

Zach Pascal (WR, IND)

Week 7 Stats: 7 targets, 6 catches, 106 yards, 2 TD

In Week 5, Pascal didn't do much at all against the Chiefs as the Colts took a very run-heavy approach in an effort to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes hands. In Week 4, however, Pascal caught four balls for 72 yards. Pascal had a great matchup in Week 7 and made the most of it, scoring two touchdowns.

Bottom Line: TY Hilton is still the No. 1 passing target for the Colts, but Pascal has demonstrated that he's a viable WR3 in 12-team leagues if he has a good matchup.

Alex Erickson (WR, CIN)

Week 7 Stats: 14 targets, 8 catches, 137 yards

Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate had difficult matchups and Alex Erickson reaped the benefits of softer coverage.

Bottom Line: In Week 7, Erickson saw a career-high 14 targets and had the best game of his career. Tyler Boyd has had some difficult matchups as of late, and with the Rams on the horizon in Week 8, it may be another two weeks before you can expect a bounce-back. With AJ Green expected to return soon, Erickson only has one more week of potential viability.

Corey Davis (WR, TEN)

Week 7 Stats: 7 targets, 6 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD

The Titans have moved on from Marcus Mariota at quarterback, and his replacement, Ryan Tannehill, took full advantage of the opportunity, going 23-of-29 for 312 yards and two touchdowns. If you watched any Titans games earlier this season, you would have seen that Corey Davis was running good routes, getting open, but Mariota simply wasn't accurate throwing the ball which killed Davis.

Bottom Line: It's amazing what Corey Davis can do with a somewhat accurate passer getting him the ball. The Titans play the Buccaneers in Week 8, so you want to get Corey Davis in your lineups for for that matchup.

Danny Amendola (WR, DET)

Week 7 Stats: 11 targets, 8 catches, 105 yards

This game ended up being a 42-30 shootout. Matthew Stafford was forced to put the ball in the air a lot in this one with Kerryon Johnson suffering a knee injury early.

Bottom Line: Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are still the top wide receivers to own on the Lions. Amendola should only be considered as a flex option in deeper PPR leagues.

Dede Westbrook (WR, JAX)

Week 7 Stats: 9 targets, 6 catches, 103 yards

The entire Bengals secondary was banged up and Dede Westbrook really took advantage of the matchup. Westbrook's performance was a little surprising because he was banged up heading into the game and it wasn't for certain that he would even play.

Bottom Line: DJ Chark is clearly the Jaguars big-play option in the passing game, but on the season, Westbrook is the most-targeted receiver on the team with 54 compared to 48 for Chark.

Devante Parker (WR, MIA)

Week 7 Stats: 10 targets, 5 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD

DeVante Parker was able to haul in five grabs for 55 yards and a touchdown against a very good Bills Defense. Parker now has three touchdowns on the season and has outplayed Preston Williams as of late.

Bottom Line: Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the long-term answer for the Dolphins at quarterback, but he's willing to take risks throwing the ball which helps Parker's outlook.

Kenny Stills (WR, HOU)

Week 7 Stats: 5 targets, 4 catches, 105 yards

Kenny Stills saw his first action since Week 4, when he went down with a hamstring injury. In his four games earlier this season, Stills went over 40 yards receiving just once, catching four balls for 89 yards in Week 3 against the Chargers.

Bottom Line: If Will Fuller is out of the lineup, DeAndre Hopkins will be a target-monster and Kenny Stills will be viable as the Texans deep threat.

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

Week 7 Stats: 8 targets, 6 catches, 50 yards

In Week 6 the Rams passing game was absolutely stifled by the 49ers Defense. In Week 7, the Rams were supposed to rebound in a big way against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Game flow did not help the Rams wide receivers in this one as the Falcons fell behind early and failed to make this game competitive.

Bottom Line: Hold steady if you own Kupp and buy-low if you don't.

Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)

Week 7 Stats: 2 targets, 1 catch, 11 yards

This game was played in heavy rain and wind. There were reports from the game that the rain was falling sideways at times. Throw this game out for fantasy analysis because of the weather.

Bottom Line: Terry McLaurin is a prime buy-low candidate.

Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)

Week 7 Stats: 10 carries, 2 yards, 2 targets, 1 catch, 2 yards, 1 TD

Joe Mixon touched the ball 11 times in Week 7 and gained just four yards. Let that sink in.

Bottom Line: Joe Mixon needs Cordy Glenn and AJ Green back in the lineup in order to be viable.

Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN)

Week 7 Stats: 6 targets, 5 catches, 58 yards, 1 TD

On the season, Kyle Rudolph has been targeted 17 times for 14 catches, 130 yards and one TD.

Bottom Line: Rudolph should only be in your lineup if you're truly desperate or in an extremely deep league.

Evan Engram (TE, NYG)

Week 7 Stats: 5 targets, 1 catch, 6 yards

Evan Engram was targeted but he struggled in this one. The Giants also turned the ball over three times which did not help the cause.

Bottom Line: Coming off a terrible performance against a Cardinals Defense that has been hemorrhaging points to tight ends, Engram is a prime buy-low candidate.

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