Hidden Third Base Draft Gems and ADP Value Picks

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If you're looking to make a splash on draft day, you should give RotoBaller's ADP Draft Sleepers Tool a long, hard look. The tool allows you to compare a player's expected production against his top comparables going later in the draft.

Frankly, it's a great resource for identifying overvalued talents and hidden gems alike. To give you a glimpse into how it works, I've used the tool to scan through this year's stock of 3rd basemen. Ready to see what value picks the Draft Sleepers Tool unearthed? Let's take a look:
 

Kyle Seager vs. Manny Machado

Name ADP Age PA BA OBP R HR RBI SB
Seager 68.0 27 628 .262 .332 75 21 78 7
Machado 162.0 22 608 .273 .320 76 18 69 6

 
How confident are you in the health of Manny Machado's knees? On one hand he's young. At only 22 years old, there's no reason to think he shouldn't be able to return to form after last year's injury. He's looked strong so far this spring, consistently making the kind of moves that should give prospective owners confidence he's close to 100%.

On the other hand, it's been two years in a row now where Machado's ended his season early due to a serious knee injury. No matter how young he is, surgeries and scar tissue stack up over time. What impact this will have is anyone's guess.

Our Draft Sleepers Tool suggests a healthy Machado isn't that different from Seager, a consensus top 100 pick. I'd be inclined to agree with its assessment. Seager is the safe play, but it's good to know that Machado will be there to fall back on if you find yourself outside the first 12 rounds without a 3rd baseman. Talent like his is always worth a gamble in round 17.

 

David Wright vs. Manny Machado

Name ADP Age PA BA OBP R HR RBI SB
Wright 100.0 32 588 .275 .347 67 16 66 9
Machado 162.0 22 608 .273 .320 76 18 69 6

 
I'm a big fan of David Wright's potential this season, but even I can't deny the similarities between him and Machado. Both have the talent of a top five 3rd baseman. Similarly, both have significant injury questions hanging over their heads.

How healthy are Machado's knees? Is Wright's shoulder's made of termites and silly string? The main difference is that Wright has actually played like a top five 3rd baseman before, while Machado hasn't. Whether that track record is worth 6 rounds of the draft, is another question altogether.

 

Carlos Santana vs. Pedro Alvarez

Name ADP Age PA BA OBP R HR RBI SB
Santana 75.0 29 592 .245 .366 75 21 73 4
Alvarez 275.0 28 561 .242 .317 65 26 75 6

 
Job security is the only thing that really separates Carlos Santana and Pedro Alvarez in my mind. Their full season projections and basic fantasy skillsets are nearly identical. If anything Alvarez has the slight edge, because his power ceiling is noticeably higher than Santana's.

Considering that they're separated by 200 picks in the draft, it'd be hard for me to advocate taking Santana. Spend that 8th round pick somewhere else. Alvarez will still be there for you when the draft wraps up.

 
 
All RotoBaller readers can use the 2B/SS ADP Draft Sleepers Tool (also in the upper right corner of site). And to get full access to all positions (SP, OF, 1B/3B) you can just...

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