The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 7

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The season rattles on as we now have over 20% of games completed and those slow starts are beginning to look like they could end up being a down year. Small samples are more indicative of players' actual output and we need to look a little deeper at someone's numbers to ascertain if they will be able to turn things around.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone, especially as we're still quite early in the season. As the year continues to progress, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Brendan Donovan - 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF, St. Louis Cardinals - 53% rostered

Donovan came into the season as a popular sleeper pick given he was lined up to lead off for the Cardinals and his multi-position eligibility. Between his own performances and those of the Cardinals, things aren't going well.

Donovan looked like the perfect leadoff hitter after posting a 12.8% BB% last year and a .281/.394/.379 slash line. But after 28 games this year, Donovan is hitting .255/.311/.351 with two homers, six RBI, 12 runs and two stolen bases. He's also seen his walk rate plummet to 6.8% (34th percentile) so far.

Last week, Donovan found himself moved out of the leadoff spot and into the bottom third of the order, something that will massively impact his fantasy value especially given most of that fantasy value was based on the number of runs he can score. The Cardinals ranking tied-16th in runs scored (144) hasn't helped.

After having no distinguishable splits between facing left-handed pitching (LHP) and right-handed pitching (RHP) last year, the leftie hitter has similar splits this year, just worse, and struggling against RHP is always going to be a big problem for any hitter's value. It's a small sample but still noticeable as we can see if we look at his splits last year and this year.

If Donovan was able to have solid numbers against RHP, he could at least lead off on the strong side of a platoon but he's struggled against them too and has a lowly 5.9% BB% rate against RHP. Of the 276 batters with at least 50 plate appearances against RHP, Donovan's BB% ranks tied-197th. Not ideal given that's meant to be a strength.

Verdict: The fact Donovan can slot into any position except catcher does have some value in deeper leagues as long as he plays more often than he sits. But in shallower leagues, Donovan was meant to be a big run scorer. That simply hasn't happened and is less likely than ever now he's hitting down the order. There are probably better options in the majority of shallower leagues.

Joey Meneses - 1B/OF, Washington Nationals - 52% rostered

Meneses made his Major League debut last year at 30 years old. And boy, did he impress. In 56 games, Meneses hit .324/.367/.563 with 13 homers, 34 RBI, 33 runs and one stolen base. This year, Meneses has not been able to come close to repeating that hitting just .265/.291/.331 with one homer, ten RBI, 11 runs and no steals (32 games).

While no one expected Meneses to repeat last year's numbers, we need to ascertain how big of a fluke it was. Given he had a .267 xBA, .457 xSLG and .332 xwOBA (.395 wOBA), it's fair to say his slash line was inflated. Meneses also had a .371 BABIP and 9.9 xHR total so everything points towards him being a solid hitter in 2022, just not a special one.

If we check out his Minor League numbers too, it gives us a similar impression. Meneses moved to Japan for the 2019 season, received a 12-month suspension after testing positive for a banned substance before moving to play in Mexico. It's difficult to extrapolate those numbers at the Major League level but we do have Minor League numbers for the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

Across Double-A and Triple-A, Meneses hit .285/.337/.508 with 35 homers, 134 RBI, 96 runs and one stolen base (184 games). Based on that, although it's difficult to expect he could hit 30+ homers in the Majors, 20+ homers with a solid average seems reasonable. So maybe the real Meneses is somewhere in between last year and this year.

Verdict: Last year's numbers were never going to be carried into this year and his expected stats suggest he's not even going to come close to replicating them. I still believe he can be a solid contributor in deeper leagues but there will more than likely be preferred outfield options and if you're utilizing Meneses as a corner infielder, I'd have no problem dropping him for an upside play (Matt Mervis for example).

Jesse Winker - OF, Milwaukee Brewers - 18% rostered

The more we see Winker, the more it looks like his 2021 season was an outlier and he's not going to come close to repeating the 24 homers and .305/.394/.556 he produced in 110 games. Even last year's 14 homers in 136 games last year look unlikely to be matched. After 22 games, Winker is hitting .246/.359/.292 with no homers, 12 RBI, seven runs and no steals.

Given Winker has three stolen bases in his career and a sprint speed that ranks in the second percentile, it's safe to assume he won't offer any help in the stolen base department. And despite the fact 16 of his 18 starts have come hitting second in the lineup, it's become clear that Winker will seldom be in the lineup when the Brewers face LHP.

Only six of his 78 plate appearances this year have been against a leftie and considering he's a career .208/.324/.343 hitter against LHP, it's probably for the best that he doesn't get to face many. If there is one positive for Winker, his 'Dad Swag' is elite but I've yet to see a fantasy league that counts that as a category.

Jesse Winker wore a necklace made by his daughter during last night’s game.

🎥: @MLB pic.twitter.com/UJaRXh3coO

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) May 3, 2023

Verdict: Winker was more of a deeper league option coming into the season but still drafted as an OF 5/6. His role and lack of production leave him with minimal fantasy value and is someone only worth rostering in deep leagues with daily roster moves so you're not left with zeroes every time the Brewers face a leftie.

Hold For Now

Ryan Helsley - RP, St. Louis Cardinals - 92% rostered

Unlike Donovan, Helsley hasn't done too much wrong. He's just been a victim of the Cardinals ineptitude. In 11 appearances (12.0 IP), Helsley has an 0-2 W-L record, 3.75 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 16 Ks and three saves. Given the Cardinals have won just ten games this year, picking up three saves isn't too bad. But he also has three blown saves on his ledger.

There are a few reasons why I don't advocate dropping Helsley. The first is something not quantifiable but I hate dropping closers and unless we hear otherwise, Helsley is the main man for the ninth inning in St. Louis. Even if he hasn't notched a save since April 12th. If you do want rid of him, there'll be someone in your league willing to trade for a closer.

Next, is that I don't believe the Cardinals will continue to be this bad and sooner or later, they'll get back on track. That will mean more save opportunities for Helsley and there are currently 28 pitchers with more than three saves so far this year, so it's not like he's been a complete non-entity in that regard.

Then there is the value he provides with the strikeouts. In a category where quantity is king, the 94 Ks Helsley tallied last year was tied-fourth most among relievers who didn't start a game. And while his 31.4% K% is down from the 39.3% K% he had in 2022, it still ranks in the 87th percentile. At his current rate, he's on track for ~87 Ks over a span of 65.0 IP.

Finally, there's his stuff. Let's compare his Statcast profile last year (when Helsley had a 1.25 ERA) to this year. As I tend to say, Statcast profiles aren't the be-all-and-end-all but can offer an indication of someone's performance.

If we now look at Helsley's arsenal, we'll get a better picture of how good his stuff is. Helsley throws a four-seam fastball, a slider and a curveball. The Stuff+ rating for each of those pitches is outstanding. Below is a simple table showing his Stuff+ ranking among all relief pitchers with at least 10.0 IP this year showing how many of those have thrown each type of pitch.

To conclude, there's nothing I've seen from Helsley to suggest he should be dropped. If you have lost patience with him and the Cardinals as a team, then by all means trade him away but I'd bet that if he was dropped, in more than 90% of cases he'd be claimed off waivers and will still end up being a fantasy contributor for whomever picked him up.

Ty France - 1B/3B, Seattle Mariners - 84% rostered

On the surface, it looks like France is en route to a down year. He's hitting .252/.340/.350 with one homer, 15 RBI, 18 runs and one stolen base (33 games). For someone who hit 38 homers over the last two seasons (292 games) with a .283 batting average, it's understandable why fantasy managers are wondering whether it's worth keeping hold of France.

For now, my answer is; yes, it is worth it. Despite his early season struggles, among first basemen, France ranks tied-22nd in RBI and tied-tenth in runs. Among third basemen, France ranks tied-18th in RBI and tied-12th in runs. You generally don't get many steals from the corner infield position so at least he's contributing in two of the four main categories you'd expect.

Now, what about the home runs and average? Well, France's .252 average is not great, but ranks him tied-11th among qualified third basemen and 14th among qualified first basemen. So it's only really the lack of homers that is letting France down from a fantasy perspective.

And I don't really have too much encouragement for that. But, France was only projected for ~20 home runs and despite the fact he's on course to total five over 162 games, if he homered twice in his next five games, that would suddenly up him to a 13-homer pace over 162 games.

That might be clutching at straws but we've seen other hitters have one good series which sees their numbers and outlook become so much rosier. Things can still change that quickly. And one bad month isn't the death nail on a player's season. Last year, France hit .176/.226/.282 in August and in 2021, he hit .190/.271/.238 in May, yet still went on to have good seasons.

France did miss some time a week ago due to an illness but is back as the Mariners everyday first baseman and continues to hit second in the lineup. After an 0-for-22 skid carried into this week, he's entering today on the back of a four-game hitting streak. Baby steps for sure, but more promising than where we were last Sunday.

France's 12.8% K% is in the 91st percentile and he's got a career-high 8.5% BB% (53rd percentile) so should remain in the top part of the lineup which will maintain his status as a solid corner infielder in all but the shallowest leagues.

Reid Detmers - SP, Los Angeles Angels - 50% rostered

Detmers entered this season as a bit of a sleeper pick in drafts following his emergence last year when he had a 7-6 W-L record, 3.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 122 Ks (129.0 IP). And so far this season, Detmers hasn't lived up to the hype. After six starts (30.0 IP), he has an 0-3 W-L record, 5.10 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 38 Ks.

But there are reasons for optimism. His 4.08 xFIP, 3.86 SIERA and .367 BABIP all suggest he's been a victim of some bad luck and should have a better ERA than he does. His 27.9% K% ranks in the 73rd percentile and is significantly up from the 22.6% K% he put up last year. And then there's his slider.

Detmers has largely been a fastball and slider pitcher but has a curveball and changeup to round off his arsenal. The table below shows us how well each pitch has fared so far this season. Please note, the below numbers are prior to yesterday's start.

While Detmers curveball has some eye-catching numbers, his slider has the 15th-best Stuff+ rating of the 118 starting pitchers with at least 20.0 IP this year (and who have thrown a slider). And it's noticeable how much more he's throwing the slider this year, up from 24.0% last year. What has also been more noticeable is Detmers' velocity.

His average fastball velocity is up from 93.2 MPH to 94.8 MPH while his slider is up from 86.3 MPH to 90.2 MPH and that has certainly contributed to its success. But without an improved fastball, it's difficult to see Detmers being able to break through as a must-start pitcher in fantasy and be matchup-proof, no matter how nasty his slider is.

Reid Detmers, K'ing the Side with Sliders. pic.twitter.com/I9EX2nK6VF

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 16, 2023

I do still believe Detmers can be a top-50 starting pitcher in fantasy this year but I'm only certain to hold him in deeper leagues. In shallow leagues, I'd be keeping an eye on him and using him more as a streamer but even then, I don't think I'd outright drop him unless a significant upgrade became available on waivers.

On the Hot Seat

Nolan Arenado - 3B, St. Louis Cardinals - 98% rostered

Regular readers of The Cut List will know that in most weeks, there is a theme running through it. This week it seems to be that the Cardinals have been so dreadful to start the season and fantasy managers are starting to panic over what to do with their players. Arenado is no exception.

After 33 games, Arenado is hitting .241/.292/.338 with three homers, 17 RBI, 14 runs and one stolen base. His third homer of the season came in yesterday's losing effort against the Tigers. The good news with Arenado is you don't have to worry about his playing time given his elite defense (96th percentile for Outs Above Average) and the money the Cardinals have invested in Arenado.

He's almost exclusively hit cleanup this year which is in part due to his track record, the contract and the fact the Cardinals don't exactly have a bunch of hitters excelling right now. So we don't have to worry about Arenado being out in the cold and getting little playing time, but we do need to worry about him offering little production.

In his first two seasons with the Cardinals, Arenado hit .273/.335/.513 with 64 homers, 208 RBI, 154 runs and seven stolen bases. Averaged out, we were right to believe he could have 30 homers, 100 RBI, 75 runs and three stolen bases this season, along with a better-than-league-average batting average. It's not panning out that way.

That production in St. Louis should have been more than enough to cast aside any previous 'Coors Bias' people had about Arenado. Although, a third of his home runs this season have come at Coors Field. Nonetheless, a glance at his Statcast profile is pretty grim viewing.

It doesn't take a PhD to work out Arenado is struggling but we need to try and find out why so we can make an informed decision about what to do with him in fantasy. Looking at his expected numbers from his Statcast profile means we can rule out bad luck. He's got a .299 BABIP too so we're crossing out luck as a factor.

Below are some standout numbers Arenado has this year compared to his first two seasons with the Cardinals and we can see some significant negatives.

We're looking at a player that appears to be more aggressive at the plate but has had a lack of success in doing so. The good news is, that's a pretty easy fix. All Arenado has to do is go back to being less aggressive but the problem comes as to whether he's chasing pitches more as his eye is diminishing or he's just trying to force things.

That's not something we're going to find out unless Arenado publically tells us so all we can do is hope that such an experienced player with a long track record of success recognizes that and looks to change his approach. That is something I have confidence in.

If it wasn't for his track record and this was a hitter who hasn't achieved what Arenado has during his career, I'd be much more open to saying he's droppable. But I'm loathed to do so here as every year we see stars struggle out the gate before putting things together and still finishing as a top-100 hitter at season's end.

I think it's fair to temper expectations for the rest of this season and 20-25 homers seem much more likely than 30+ from Arenado. But at a position of relative weakness in fantasy and with the numbers he's put up throughout his career (including recently), Arenado warrants a longer leash so should remain on your fantasy teams for now.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

We didn't manage to top 200 comments on Reddit last Sunday, but still had over 170 so rather than the normal three names in this section, I've added a fourth. And given they are all outfielders, it's clear there's a broad level of concern among some top names at the position.

Kyle Schwarber - OF, Philadelphia Phillies - 98% rostered

Last year, Schwarber was a "three true outcomes" hitter. He walked a lot (12.9% BB%), struck out a lot (29.9% K%) and hit a lot of homers (46). This year, Schwarber is walking a lot (13.0% BB%), striking out a lot (28.8% K%) and hitting a lot of homers (seven). Seven might not seem a lot but it's a 162-game pace of 33.

His season line is seven homers, 13 RBI, 18 runs and no stolen bases with a .176/.295/.376 slash line (34 games). The real standout number here is the batting average, but the slugging percentage is also a bit of a worry. As we tend to do, let's look at his expected numbers. Schwarber has a .208 xBA which is only a tad lower than his .218 average last year.

His .399 xSLG (46th percentile) means he hasn't been particularly unlucky, just average. But as long as he keeps putting the ball over the fence, his walk rate will ensure he hits in the top part of the Phillies lineup and actually has been leading off since the return of Bryce Harper (going 0-for-14 in the process). So the counting stats should be fine.

To try and calm any worries you still have, the above table shows Schwarber's numbers per month throughout his career. Given he debuted in 2015, it's a pretty substantial sample we have and it shows that Schwarber generally comes to life in June. For context, after 34 games last year, Schwarber was hitting .183/.288/.429 with nine homers.

So if you do roster Schwarber, this is nothing new so hold tight, ride out the struggles and brace yourself for take-off in the summer months.

George Springer - OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 96% rostered

The second of our four top outfielders struggling to start the season, Springer ranks 37th among all outfielders. After 33 games, Springer is hitting .211/.276/.308 with four homers, 13 RBI, 17 runs and five stolen bases. Before the weekend, Springer ranked 70th among outfielders. Unlike Schwarber, Springer's expected numbers are significantly better than his actual numbers.

Springer has a .259 xBA, .440 xSLG and .327 xwOBA (.264wOBA) and his .229 BABIP is a career-low. None of the expected numbers really stand out and they all rank between the 50th and 65th percentile, so above average but still considerably better than what he's actually put up. And if we break down his numbers by pitch type, we can paint a slightly better picture of where the issues lie.

It's very noticeable how similar Springer's expected and actual numbers were last year which makes me even more confident that his numbers will normalize as the season progresses. He has seen fewer fastballs, a pitch he's always hit well, but not to the point pitchers are refusing to throw him a fastball.

And the good news is Springer is on pace to top last year's 14 stolen bases and even set a career-high which is currently 16 (2015). Yes, stolen bases are up everywhere but he's not being left behind in the category. I'm confident Springer's numbers will begin to better reflect his performances and he'll be a productive fantasy outfielder over the coming months, possibly having a 20/20 season as well.

Teoscar Hernandez - OF, Seattle Mariners - 95% rostered

Of these four outfielders, I'm the most optimistic about Hernandez's chances of ending the season as a top-20 outfielder and also most concerned about him finishing outside the top-50. A look at his Statcast might profile might better illustrate why I feel this way.

Firstly, the reason for optimism. Simply put, Hernandez is regularly hitting the ball hard. You'd think he had a better fantasy line than he has; seven homers, 16 RBI, 16 runs and one stolen base with a .223/.261/.423 (33 games). A .256 xBA, .497 xSLG and .345 xwOBA (.295 wOBA) all give me a reason to believe his slash line will improve.

Hernandez currently ranks 44th among outfielders according to Yahoo! so he is still a starter-worthy hitter as things currently stand and if his actual numbers begin to better reflect his expected numbers, he'll find himself moving up those rankings pretty rapidly. So why my trepidation about him as well?

Just check out those K% and BB% percentiles. His 34.1% K% is his highest since 2017 while his 2.2% BB% is set to be a career-low. And over the last ten days, we've seen him hit fifth or sixth in the lineup after spending most of his time hitting fourth or fifth. Only a slight downgrade in the order but likely indicative of the strikeouts and lack of walks.

I am generally more concerned about hitters who strike out a ton and walk very little but at least in Hernandez's case, this is not something new and he's had plenty of success still. The K% and BB% are a bit more extreme than normal but his quality of contact offsets my concerns enough to believe Hernandez isn't someone I'd consider dropping right now.

Eloy Jimenez - OF, Chicago White Sox - 87% rostered

*BREAKING NEWS UPDATE* Jiménez was taken to hospital on Saturday, suffering from abdominal pain. We have since found out he has undergone an appendectomy which is set to sideline him for 4-6 weeks. The below was written on Saturday morning before this news came out but remains salient.

What a difference a week makes. Regular readers will probably be bored of me saying that patience is key with the best players and those with proven track records. And how a good series or few days can still make a huge change in someone's numbers. Well, Jiménez couldn't have emphasized that any better than he has.

Going into last Sunday, Jiménez was hitting .187/.265/.320 with two homers, eight RBI, seven runs and no stolen bases (20 games). Now, he's hitting .258/.321/.423 with four homers, 15 RBI, 12 runs and no stolen bases (25 games). He's almost doubled his counting stats in just one week and allayed any concerns his fantasy managers had.

Well, there is one fear fantasy managers still have and it's one that won't go away: Jiménez's health. He's already missed time with leg soreness which has limited him to 24 games and is restricted to almost exclusively being a DH. Obviously, you can't predict something like needing an appendectomy but injuries are something Jiménez has to deal with more than most.

As long as he is in the lineup, Jiménez is someone I'm confident can produce for my fantasy teams. When he returns, hopefully, he can have a long run of games but if the time comes he hits the IL again, then you put him on there, pick up a temporary replacement and just wait for Jiménez to return and rake.

The timing of the appendicitis isn't ideal as Jiménez was starting to heat up but that should give fantasy managers more reason to stash him on the IL and await his return. All we can do is wish him a speedy recovery and hope he comes back as hot as he has been this week.

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