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Now that the 2020 NFL Draft has passed, it’s time to look at the fantasy outlooks for many newly-drafted players.
Tight end has always been a tough position to value in fantasy football, especially after the top five are picked. Tight ends usually take a year or two to develop any relevance. Many rookie tight ends find themselves in situations where they are likely backups or competing for snaps initially. However, there could be some rookie tight ends worth keeping on your fantasy radar.
Let’s look at some of the notable players from the 2020 draft class who could potentially merit fantasy value this season.
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Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Tight end Cole Kmet out of Notre Dame was the first guy in his position to get picked in the draft, and it was in the second round at 43 overall! Standing at 6’6”, the 21-year-old provides a huge presence on the field for QB Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles.
Though his overall college stats through three years were rather modest, Kmet did display improvement each season. He finished college with 60 receptions, 691 yards, six touchdowns, and averaged 11.5 yards per catch in 23 games played. His junior year in 2019 was by far his best on the field. The TE notched 43 receptions, 515 yards, 12 yards per catch, and six touchdowns.
The Bears recently got the notorious honor of having ten tight ends on their team, which is way too many. Currently, they have nine, but that’s still hard to distinguish between who’s fantasy relevant.
However, Kmet was likely drafted for a reason and he has the potential to be the TE1 this season as long as he shows promise on the field. The other Bears TEs on the roster include the aging Jimmy Graham, Ben Braunecker, Darion Clark, Demetrius Harris, J.P. Holtz, Jesper Horsted, Eric Saubert, and Adam Shaheen.
Now tell me, who besides Jimmy Graham on that list do you REALLY know? Last year, the ragtag TE “unit” of Holtz, Horsted, Trey Burton, Shaheen, Braunecker, and Saubert combined for 46 receptions, 69/580 targets (11.9%), 416 yards, and two touchdowns. Kmet nearly had the same amount of receptions by himself in 2019, not to mention more yards and touchdowns than this entire “unit” in the same season.
Basically, the only real fantasy threat to Kmet would be Jimmy Graham. However, Graham has been on the decline and his tenure in Green Bay reflected that. Heading into a season in which he will turn 34, Graham’s fantasy value is not as high as it once was in New Orleans and Seattle. In 2019, the TE compiled 38 receptions (second-lowest of career), 447 yards receiving (second-lowest of career), three touchdowns, and a paltry 27.9 yards per game.
In two seasons on the Packers, the TE mustered 93 receptions, 1,083 yards, and five touchdowns. That is not very appealing for stats spanning two seasons, thus signaling Graham’s path to fantasy irrelevance. The only encouraging sign during his time in Wisconsin was averaging 11.6 yards per catch.
The number of TEs in Chicago doesn’t mean anything since the whopping majority of them are unproven and Graham is older. Kmet is easily the rookie TE with the most fantasy upside overall, and you could take a chance on him deep in redraft leagues.
Josiah Deguara, Green Bay Packers
Jimmy Graham went to the rival Bears, as mentioned above, which means the Packers have lack of reliability at the TE position too. This means potential fantasy upside for newly drafted TE Josiah Deguara out of Cincinnati, who was picked in the third round at 94 overall.
Though he may not be the most elite or highly-touted prospect, Deguara does have fantasy potential in a draft where not many tight ends were taken overall. The Cincinnati product finished his four years of college with 92 receptions, 1,117 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 12.1 yards per catch. His senior season in 2019 was his best statistically, as the TE finished with 39 receptions, 504 yards, 12.9 yards per catch, and seven touchdowns.
Green Bay was nationally bashed for not taking a wide receiver in the draft, but this helps Deguara from a fantasy perspective as Aaron Rodgers could throw to him more often (and in the red zone too). As for competition, the only notable tight ends to return to the team are Jace Sternberger, Marcedes Lewis, and Robert Tonyan, the former of who is going to be 36 at the start of the season.
Sternberger is expected to be the starter but has to prove himself after contributing little as a rookie. Neither Lewis or Tonyan inspire much confidence as a TE1 on this team. They both combined for 25 receptions, 256 yards, and two touchdowns in 2019. Everything is laid out for Deguara to take the TE1 role, assuming he gets ample playing time and the chance to prove himself. Though he’s not worth drafting in redraft leagues right now, keep an eye on him as the season progresses.
Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints
Picked out of Dayton in the third round at 105 overall, Adam Trautman is slated to be the TE2 to Jared Cook down in the Big Easy this season. Therefore, he could merit some fantasy relevance as the season progresses, depending on how his playing time pans out. The Saints thought highly of the 23-year-old and struck a trade just to grab this prospect, who was actually valued well coming into the draft despite being picked later than expected.
Trautman has immense talent, and his last college season in 2019 was his best. He finished with 70 receptions, 916 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 13.1 yards per catch in 11 games. The TE averaged 83.3 yards per game.
To summarize his college career, the Michigan native compiled 178 receptions, 2,295 yards, 31 touchdowns, and averaged 12.9 yards per catch. It’s no wonder the Saints traded up to grab this hidden gem in the draft, and he clearly has better college stats than Kmet and Deguara.
Unfortunately, for 2020, Trautman will play second fiddle to TE Jared Cook. The veteran was the second-leading receiver on the team in 2019, getting 65/581 targets (11.1%), 43 receptions, 705 yards, nine touchdowns, and averaging a staggering 16.4 yards per catch. The Saints added Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason but didn't retain Ted Ginn Jr. and there was no draft pick used on a wide receiver. That means there is still a path to targets for another receiver, even if it is a second tight end.
The South Carolina product’s role cannot be undermined on this team, which means Trautman has a tougher path than Kmet and Degaura for the TE1 role this season. There is an upside for the Dayton product though. Jared Cook is 33 years old and may not be on the team in 2021 because of an expiring contract, so Trautman could easily become truly fantasy relevant in just one year. Therefore, he is set up for fantasy success soon as he could eventually claim the TE1 role and is in a good fantasy situation though the results may not come immediately.
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