RADIO
Saves can be one of the most volatile categories for fantasy owners. Often, a pitcher will have the closer’s role seemingly locked up only to be ousted after a slow start to the season.
Many believe that the only key to racking up a lot of saves is to pick a closer for a winning team. This often proves to be false. Of the 2014 leaders in saves, three of them played for losing teams, five of them played for teams with a negative run differential, and only three of the top ten teams in baseball had a top ten saves leader.
Just look at Jonathan Papelbon. Since 2012, the Phillies’ closer is seventh in the Majors in saves while playing for a losing team that was 22nd in wins during that time span. Papelbon earned his saves due in part to no competition for the closer’s role and the team’s involvement in close games. Then you have teams like the Tigers who have found a lot of success over the past three seasons with three division titles and one pennant. Over that span, they've run through three closers with only Joaquin Benoit pitching well.
Who Will Lead MLB in Saves
10) Mark Melancon - PIT
Since coming to Pittsburgh, Melancon has been nothing short of phenomenal. In spite of a flat 9.00 K/9 in 2014, Melancon was spectacular with 33 saves by limiting the walks (1.39 BB/9) and home runs (.25 HR/9) which kept his ERA down to 1.90. It is a safe bet to count on even more saves in 2015 from Melancon.
9) Steve Cishek - MIA
One of the sleepers on this list, Cishek has quietly been a good closer over the past few seasons. The 2014 season was a success for the Marlins’ closer as he had 39 saves, with an 11.57 K/9, and a 3.17 ERA (though he had a low 2.17 FIP). With an improved roster around him, expect Cishek to get even more save opportunities and potentially be a top five saves leader.
8) Trevor Rosenthal - STL
Rosenthal will have to continue to prove that he can nail down the saves for St. Louis because he, unlike many on this list, has a lot of competition for that closer’s role. The Cardinals have a bevy of young pitching who can throw in the upper 90s. His average fastball velocity sat at 96.6 mph with 11.13 K/9, only .26 HR/9, and a 3.26 ERA. Be warned though, he walked 5.26 batters per nine. But his 45 saves last season show that the Cardinals have some faith in him and will likely stick with the 24-year-old right-hander in 2015.
7) Kenley Jansen - LAD
Jansen is in that second tier of closers just behind Kimbrel, Chapman, and Holland. He has an excellent cutter and decent velocity on the fastball. Since 2012, Jansen is 10th in the majors in saves (which includes a career-high 44 saves in 2014). He limits hard contact (1.64 SIERA) and strikes out a lot of batters (13.91).
6) Fernando Rodney - SEA
This season, the Mariners are poised to be one of the elite teams in baseball and Rodney will be one of the beneficiaries of that elite-team status. He re-invented himself as a pitcher in Tampa and has continued to be one of the best closers in baseball since 2012 (at least 35 saves per season). His ERA (2.85) and FIP (2.83) from last season indicate that he is by no means an elite closer, but he gets the job done and will do so again this year.
5) David Robertson - CWS
The White Sox made headlines when they signed Robertson to a four-year, $46 million deal. Robertson had spent most of his career as a setup pitcher to the great Mariano Rivera. He received an opportunity to be the Yankees closer following Rivera’s retirement. He saved 39 games in 2014, good for eighth in the majors. His 3.08 ERA is deceiving - he had a 2.68 FIP and 2.13 xFIP. Expect him to flourish with the White Sox.
4) Jonathan Papelbon - PHI
As discussed earlier, Papelbon has been good enough to continue to save a lot of games for a losing team. His lowest save total since 2006 in a season is 29 so the expectation for saves is 30 or more per season. He isn’t a big strikeout pitcher anymore (past two seasons has a K/9 below 9), but he gets outs and prevents runs (2.45 ERA while with Philadelphia). Don’t be surprised though if he finishes the season on a winning team in need of a bona fide closer like the Tigers or the Cubs.
3) Greg Holland - KC
The last elite closer on this list, Holland will be getting every opportunity to save games for a Kansas City Royals team that has taken great strides in being competitive over the past few seasons. Holland had 46 saves last season and an ERA of 1.44. He also plays on a Royals team that is involved in a lot of close games which will help him be in the top ten once again in saves.
2) Aroldis Chapman - CIN
Right behind Kimbrel in the best closer in baseball discussion is the fire-balling lefty from Cincinnati, Aroldis Chapman. He missed a full month of MLB action in 2014, played for a losing team, and still finished the season with 36 saves, 12th best in the Majors. His numbers are ridiculous: 17.67 K/9, average fastball velocity of 100.2 mph, and only .17 HR/9 on the year. He, like Kimbrel, can be counted on to rack up a ton of saves.
1) Craig Kimbrel - ATL
This is about as close to a no-brainer as there is in the closer category. Kimbrel, since 2011, leads all pitchers in saves with 185 and sitting at a distant second place in that time frame is Papelbon with 137 saves. He also has the lowest ERA of any reliever in that time frame with a 1.51 ERA. Expect him to lead the majors once again.
