RADIO
The history at Augusta tells more than just a story; it helps to figure out who might be able to grab the green jacket come Sunday.
There are a handful of qualities that I am using to eliminate golfers, so let's figure out who is standing at the end of this trial run.
I do want to note that this has successfully included the winner all four years that I have run this model. No promises that the trend continues, but let's give it our best shot.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
The Seven Deadly Sins - Who Can Win At Augusta In 2023?
1. Golfers Over 45 - Only Jack Nicklaus has ever won the Masters being older than 45 (46 years, two months, 23 days). That takes away the following players from this year's pool:
Jose Maria Olazabal, Mike Weir, Larry Mize, Sandy Lyle, Vijay Singh, Bernhard Langer, Fred Couples, Zach Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods (Don't shoot the messenger!)
2. Players Who Won't Be Making At Least Their Third Appearance At Augusta - A first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and it typically takes a few showings to get accustomed to the undulation of the greens. That eliminates the following golfers:
Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira, Matthew McClean, Gordon Sargent, Aldrich Potgieter, Kazuki Higa, Sam Bennett, Ben Carr, Sepp Straka, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Adrian Meronk, Adam Svensson, Kurt Kitayama, Mito Pereira, Harold Varner III, Tom Hoge, Taylor Moore, J.T. Poston, Ryan Fox, Min Woo Lee, Talor Gooch, Sahith Theegala, Seamus Power, Tom Kim, Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, Cameron Young
Those first two statistics have successfully eliminated 36 of our 87 participants.
3. Golfers Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Driving Distance - I don't believe distance is the only decider to find success at Augusta, but it does hurt someone's potential to find the winner's circle if he can't crack the top-50 names in an 87-person field:
Kevin Na, Louis Oosthuizen, Kevin Kisner, Francesco Molinari, Patrick Reed, Russell Henley, Danny Willett, Justin Rose, Brian Harman, Harris English, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Kirk, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim
There were some slight surprises in that list, including former champions Patrick Reed and Danny Willett. We also saw a favorite in Collin Morikawa eliminated.
4. Golfers Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field Around the Green - There are too many areas for players to find trouble, and it will show quickly if your short game falters:
Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Champ, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Sergio Garcia, Corey Conners, Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Kokrak, Keegan Bradley, Will Zalatoris
Down goes a ton of the LIV Frazier's! Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau all see the door -- as well as young PGA Tour studs in Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris
5. Golfers Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Three-Putt Percentage - Same theory as strokes gained around the green. Mistakes can add up quickly:
Thomas Pieters, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann
This has historically been the qualifier that has eliminated Rory McIlroy...He isn't on the list this year with his 19th-place rank in this field.
6. Players Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field In Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage - The easiest holes at the property will come at your four par-fives, and you can't afford to miss out on your scoring opportunities. That eliminates these three golfers:
Scott Stallings, Mackenzie Hughes
Not a ton of traction with this in 2023.
7. A Top-30 Result at the Venue during one of their last three attempts - That isn't going to take out many players, but it is enough to eliminate Adam Scott, Alex Noren, Max Homa
Who Is Left Standing?
We are down to just 12 golfers! Please note that failure to make this list will not be a reason I exclude a golfer from my DFS pool, but I will try and stick to these names when selecting my handful of outrights.
Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day and Shane Lowry
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
