RADIO
The history at Augusta tells more than just a story; it helps to figure out who might be able to grab the green jacket come Sunday.
There are a handful of qualities that I am using to eliminate golfers, so let's figure out who is standing at the end of this trial run.
I do want to note that this has successfully included the winner all four years that I have run this model. No promises that the trend continues, but let's give it our best shot.
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The Seven Deadly Sins - Who Can Win At Augusta In 2023?
1. Golfers Over 45 - Only Jack Nicklaus has ever won the Masters being older than 45 (46 years, two months, 23 days). That takes away the following players from this year's pool:
Jose Maria Olazabal, Mike Weir, Larry Mize, Sandy Lyle, Vijay Singh, Bernhard Langer, Fred Couples, Zach Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods (Don't shoot the messenger!)
2. Players Who Won't Be Making At Least Their Third Appearance At Augusta - A first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and it typically takes a few showings to get accustomed to the undulation of the greens. That eliminates the following golfers:
Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira, Matthew McClean, Gordon Sargent, Aldrich Potgieter, Kazuki Higa, Sam Bennett, Ben Carr, Sepp Straka, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Adrian Meronk, Adam Svensson, Kurt Kitayama, Mito Pereira, Harold Varner III, Tom Hoge, Taylor Moore, J.T. Poston, Ryan Fox, Min Woo Lee, Talor Gooch, Sahith Theegala, Seamus Power, Tom Kim, Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, Cameron Young
Those first two statistics have successfully eliminated 36 of our 87 participants.
3. Golfers Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Driving Distance - I don't believe distance is the only decider to find success at Augusta, but it does hurt someone's potential to find the winner's circle if he can't crack the top-50 names in an 87-person field:
Kevin Na, Louis Oosthuizen, Kevin Kisner, Francesco Molinari, Patrick Reed, Russell Henley, Danny Willett, Justin Rose, Brian Harman, Harris English, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Kirk, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim
There were some slight surprises in that list, including former champions Patrick Reed and Danny Willett. We also saw a favorite in Collin Morikawa eliminated.
4. Golfers Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field Around the Green - There are too many areas for players to find trouble, and it will show quickly if your short game falters:
Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Champ, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Sergio Garcia, Corey Conners, Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Kokrak, Keegan Bradley, Will Zalatoris
Down goes a ton of the LIV Frazier's! Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau all see the door -- as well as young PGA Tour studs in Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris
5. Golfers Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Three-Putt Percentage - Same theory as strokes gained around the green. Mistakes can add up quickly:
Thomas Pieters, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann
This has historically been the qualifier that has eliminated Rory McIlroy...He isn't on the list this year with his 19th-place rank in this field.
6. Players Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field In Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage - The easiest holes at the property will come at your four par-fives, and you can't afford to miss out on your scoring opportunities. That eliminates these three golfers:
Scott Stallings, Mackenzie Hughes
Not a ton of traction with this in 2023.
7. A Top-30 Result at the Venue during one of their last three attempts - That isn't going to take out many players, but it is enough to eliminate Adam Scott, Alex Noren, Max Homa
Who Is Left Standing?
We are down to just 12 golfers! Please note that failure to make this list will not be a reason I exclude a golfer from my DFS pool, but I will try and stick to these names when selecting my handful of outrights.
Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day and Shane Lowry
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