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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/18/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
We've got a jam-packed Friday slate of MLB action, so it's time to dive in to find our favorite home run props. Remember, these are props with a low hit rate, so manage your bankroll by sprinkling only fractional units on these wagers.
The process for finding home run props will include batter vs. pitcher data, lefty-righty splits, batted ball metrics, and weather conditions. We want to stick to props with long enough odds to make them worthwhile, so we won't be taking any inflated lines here.
Read on to find my favorite home run prop bets from MLB games on Friday, April 18, 2025. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks and find the best value on your favorite bets!
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, April 18:
- Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
- Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings)
Here is another attempt at me trying to prove to you that Matt Olson has had the best at-bats of any Braves player this year. A 250 point difference between SLG and xSLG is INSANE! Almost a 70 point difference in BA and xBA. pic.twitter.com/dDzydBTOc2
— Jake Mastroianni (@ShortStopBall) April 17, 2025
Matt Olson has gotten off to a slow start with a .203/.338/.344 slash and only two home runs in 18 games. However, there is reason to believe that the Braves slugger will go on a power binge soon.
This is because of the quality of contact, which includes an 18.8 percent barrel rate. Olson's .593 xSLG is much higher than his .344 SLG, so it's clear that he deserves better results right now. The good news is that Olson is showing signs of coming out of his slump, including a home run against the Blue Jays on April 15.
Up next is a matchup vs. Chris Paddack, who is giving up a .362 xwOBA, 9.3 percent barrel rate, and 2.19 HR/9 this season. Olson has had success vs. Paddack in his career, posting a .716 xwOBA in five plate appearances.
The Twins righty has allowed a .359 xwOBA on his fastball, which is good news for Olson, who has pummeled four-seamers with a .569 xwOBA.
Add in the fact that Truist Park is the ninth-most favorable environment for left-handed power, per Baseball Savant, and you can see why it is appealing for Olson to hit a home run, even at (+320) odds.
Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings)
Bryce Harper game-tying home run! pic.twitter.com/8sUVtTBr2m
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 17, 2025
Bryce Harper is currently slashing .269/.395/.478 with four home runs in 18 games. This includes an 11.8 percent barrel rate and .404 xwOBA, so the batted ball metrics look good.
The veteran slugger is heating up, going 3-for-8 with two homers in his last three games. During this stretch, Harper hasn't struck out, so it's clear that he's locked in at the plate right now.
At first glance, the matchup vs. Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara looks difficult. After all, this is a pitcher allowing only 0.59 HR/9 this season. Alcantara has kept his HR/9 below 1.0 in three of the last four seasons.
However, Harper has performed well against Alcantara, putting up a .412 xwOBA in 49 plate appearances, including one home run. It also helps that Alcantara hasn't been nearly as good against lefties, allowing a .341 wOBA against them this year (.177 wOBA vs. righties).
We should also consider the park factor at Citizens Bank Park, which is the second-most favorable for left-handed power, behind only Great American Ball Park. You have to like the environment for Harper here, especially with how he's swinging the bat lately. At (+400) odds, Harper is worth a look.
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Freddie Freeman joins the first inning home run party! 🎉 pic.twitter.com/iWYHRTgiN7
— MLB (@MLB) April 17, 2025
Freddie Freeman has a .333/.412/.733 slash with three home runs in only 34 plate appearances this season. We just saw the Dodgers veteran homer in his last game, which came against the Rockies.
Up next is Jacob deGrom, which sounds like a matchup to avoid. However, the former Met has struggled so far this season, allowing four home runs in just 14 2/3 innings.
What's even more intriguing is Freeman has had success vs. deGrom throughout his career, homering three times in 73 plate appearances, including an impressive .557 xSLG.
We've seen deGrom's four-seamer get crushed so far this season, as highlighted by a .403 xwOBA. This is good news for Freeman, who has performed well vs. fastballs so far, putting up a .514 xwOBA.
Given Freeman's familiarity with deGrom with 73 career plate appearances, we could see him get into one for his fourth home run of the year in this spot.
Ryan Mountcastle OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings)
Ryan Mountcastle's 1st inning double had an exit velocity of 115.7 mph.
That's the hardest hit ball by an Oriole since April 2018 (Pedro Alvarez HR). pic.twitter.com/CewWRcSOrW
— Avi Miller 🟦 (@AviMiIIer) March 27, 2025
Ryan Mountcastle had only one home run with a .109 ISO in 58 plate appearances heading into Thursday's action, but this feels like a good spot to take a shot, especially at a nice price of (+600) odds.
The Orioles first baseman is mashing lefties this season, putting up a 148 wRC+ against them, which is in line with what he's done vs. southpaws throughout his career (132 wRC+).
Lefty Andrew Abbott is on the mound for the Reds in this one. This is a pitcher who has given up a 1.80 HR/9 so far after allowing 1.63 HR/9 last season (1.94 HR/9). We've seen Abbott allow a barrel rate of 9 percent or worse in each of his two seasons, which also bodes well for Mountcastle.
It's also worth noting that Abbott's four-seamer has allowed a .412 xwOBA so far this season, while Mountcastle has registered a .351 xwOBA against fastballs. There's a good chance that we can see Mountcastle barrel one of Abbott's hittable fastballs in this one.
It also helps that the Orioles changed the dimensions of Camden Yards to make it a little more favorable for right-handed power, which benefits Mountcastle. With that in mind, let's take a shot on this lefty masher to hit his second homer of the season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+650 DraftKings)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally hit his first home run of the season in his last game. It was off Spencer Strider, which is a tough matchup, so going up against Bryan Woo is not going to deter us from taking Vlad Jr. once again.
Despite the limited power so far, the Blue Jays slugger is grading out well in batted ball metrics, ranking in the 71st percentile in barrel rate and 88th percentile in hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.
The big boy is back.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s first home run of 2025: pic.twitter.com/fequ2WJ23V
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) April 16, 2025
We've seen Vlad Jr. have success against Woo, including one home run in just three plate appearances. Woo's most vulnerable pitch this year is his sweeper (.474 xwOBA), a pitch that Vlad Jr. has hit well so far (.376 xwOBA).
It's also worth noting that the Mariners are coming off an extra-inning slugfest at Great American Ball Park. We could see relievers such as closer Andres Munoz unavailable for this one. A weaker Mariners bullpen means better matchups for Vlad Jr. and more of a chance for another homer.
We all know that home runs come in bunches for power hitters, so let's ride with Guerrero to hit one for the second game in a row. At (+650) odds, it looks like a solid value.
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