Conference Championships Busts - Overvalued Players to Avoid In Fantasy Football

January 20, 2019

Eight potential lineup busts to avoid in DFS fantasy football lineups. Justin Carter lists NFL players to consider avoiding as Conference Championship round lineup disappointments.

This is it -- our final bust column of the season. (For those of you doing DFS during the Super Bowl, good luck, but the player pool is so small that I'm not even going to try to give you any bust picks. You can always tweet at me if you want some thoughts on it, though!)

Because there are only four teams playing this weekend, the structure of this week's piece looks a little different. I'm still identifying one player per team who I trust the least, and I'm also going to give a brief rundown for each team of players who worry me this week, but I'd ultimately be fine with playing in the right formats, like a weekly re-draft where a lot of things are beyond your control.

Here are four lineup busts and avoids for the NFL's Conference Championship round.

Players to Avoid - NFL Conference Championships

Los Angeles Rams: C.J. Anderson - Running Back

C.J. Anderson was great last week, but the Saints run defense has done a lot of good work this season and during the regular season they allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Last week, the Eagles couldn't get the run game going, with Wendell Smallwood carrying the ball 10 times for 33 yards and Darren Sproles adding four yards on three carries.

Yes, C.J. Anderson looked really good against the Cowboys, but the Dallas run defense had faltered down the stretch, allowing five rushing touchdowns to backs over the final three games before bouncing back in effectiveness against the Seahawks. Anderson is facing a much tougher test this week, and it's hard to see a repeat of last weekend's big game.

Also: I didn't love Josh Reynolds' usage last week, as he caught just one of his four targets. The Saints allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs, though, so Reynolds is still likely a good, low-cost player who has a chance at finding the end zone. Gerald Everett was outsnapped by Tyler Higbee 56-33 last week, so I'd peg Everett to finish on the lower end of tight ends this week.

New Orleans Saints: Tre'Quan Smith - Wide Receiver

I also thought Smith was on his way to establishing himself as the Saints number two guy during the middle point of the season, but he finished last weekend's win over the Eagles with just 23 offensive snaps, a 30 percent mark and fourth among the team's wide receivers. If you want to throw a Saints receiver dart and hope it sticks, why not Keith Kirkwood? Or even better, why not Ted Ginn, especially if he sees a lot of coverage from Marcus Peters on the outside.

Also: It's not that I think Alvin Kamara is going to have a bad game or anything, but at his DFS cost you have to consider a lot of things, and one of those is that the Rams allowed 477 receiving yards to running backs, the fourth-lowest total in the league. And while Kamara's usage in the passing game hasn't been as heavy this year as expected, it's still something to take into account when building lineups.

New England Patriots: Rex Burkhead - Running Back

I mean, Burkhead scored a touchdown last week but also was in for just 11 offensive snaps. I'm usually not picking a player for this who plays such a small factor, but the Chiefs offense has a lot of holes and Burkhead seems like a guy who people might trick themselves into playing. Opportunity matters, and he won't have much opportunity.

Also: Uhh, Dwayne Allen, because the Chiefs allow the most fantasy points to tight ends but the Patriots used Allen on just 22 percent of snaps last week? I don't know, y'all. This game is probably going to turn into a shoot out, so there's not too much I'm avoiding with it.

Kansas City Chiefs: Damien Williams - Running Back

So, this one is interesting. The Patriots allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, with only the Bears ranking better at holding backs out of the end zone on the ground. Four of those six came in two games (Tennessee and Miami). But back in Week 6, Kareem Hunt had 80 yards on the ground and another 105 yards in the receiving game, so...man, I don't know. If Patrick Mahomes has the kind of success through the air that he did in the first game, it would make sense for the run game to suffer, and the run game suffering against a good run defense makes it feel like this should be the one guy to avoid for KC, especially if Spencer Ware is able to go, which would lead to more of a split in the workload.

Also: Chris Conley hasn't been very good lately. Charcandrick West should be the passing down back, but he was a non-entity last week. Again, this game should feature a lot of points, so I'm not steering clear of too many guys.

Really, this whole week is going to feature a ton of points, making it hard to really know who should be avoided. Have fun out there building lineups, and don't be shocked if you put up some incredibly high scores and still don't win.

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