RADIO
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! The Butterfield Bermuda Championship might be lacking in star power, but the event is consistently a fun one to follow. That was again the case for this year's edition, as "course horse" Seamus Power outlasted a charging Thomas Detry to capture the title at Port Royal. It was Power's second PGA Tour victory.
At No. 48 in the world heading into last week's event, Power was the highest-ranked golfer in the Bermuda field. As we head to beautiful Maya Riviera, Mexico for this week's Mayakoba Championship, we'll be dealing with a little more firepower in the field!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2022-23 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba
As the PGA Tour's Swing Season winds down, this week's Mayakoba event represents the best field that we'll see before the calendar flips over to 2023. After last week's glorified Korn Ferry Tour event in Bermuda, Mayakoba is certainly a breath of fresh air and a nice way for PGA DFS grinders to begin the closing of the golf year.
A long-standing event on the Swing Season schedule, this Mayakoba tournament has really solidified in the past couple of years thanks to some of the game's top players consistently turning up. Rising star Viktor Hovland has won in each of the last two years and will be back looking for a three-peat this week. It won't be a cakewalk, as Hovland will have to conquer a field that includes stars like Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, and a host of talented up-and-comers.
Players that hope to supplant Vik as this event's champion will need to go low. Since 2013, the average winning score at Mayakoba is 20-under par. While this is certainly a "resort course", there are some unique characteristics that can make it a bit tricky. We'll dive into what leads to success at Mayakoba in this week's edition of HFTC!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: El Camaleon GC
Par 71 - 7,017 Yards, Greens: Paspalum, Architect: Greg Norman
First things first...distance doesn't matter on this golf course. Yes, players can go low here, but they will need to consistently hit fairways and greens to do it. While all-world talent Viktor Hovland has won this event in each of the last two years, it's been something of a "plodders paradise" in prior years.
A 2006 Greg Norman design, El Camaleon is a unique course that takes advantage of a beautiful and interesting natural landscape. It is perhaps most famous for its "sinkholes" that can give golfers fits. This is a short course by modern standards, but not one that can be easily overpowered. Accuracy off the tee is crucial and we will see lots of players hitting less than driver this week. Ball striking will also be at a premium at El Camaleon in order to find fairways and greens in what is typically windy coastline conditions. A hot putter never hurts and that is again the case this week on a Seashore Paspalum putting surface that we rarely see on the PGA Tour and can often be kind to players that aren't historically the best putters on the Tour - such as Viktor Hovland. I'll be targeting accurate ball strikers who are capable of working their way around this course with precision and getting in a groove with the flatstick.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Mayakoba Championship Winners
- Viktor Hovland (-23)
- Viktor Hovland (-20)
- Brendon Todd (-20)
- Matt Kuchar (-22)
- Patton Kizzire (-19)
The Horse
Viktor Hovland
- Event Scoring Average: 67.17
- Notable Course History: Win (2022 Season), Win ('21), MC ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $11,200 FanDuel Price: TBD
Very little explanation is needed here, as Viktor Hovland comes into this year's edition of the Mayakoba Championship as the defending two-time champ. There was a bit of a learning curve for Vik, though, as he did miss the cut in his first two Mayakoba appearances.
Despite the sluggish start, he's - obviously - settled in nicely on this El Camaleon layout. He's especially demonstrated for the rare Paspalum greens he'll once again find in Mexico this week. In addition to his pair of Mayakoba wins, Hovland grabbed a victory at the 2020 Puerto Rico Open, which also features Paspalum putting surfaces.
Hovland has stayed rather active during the Swing Season, logging a T5 (BMW PGA Championship) and a T34 (Italian Open) in September, as well as a T5 (ZOZO) and a T21 (CJ Cup) in two October outings. That good form - coupled with his elite track record on this golf course - makes Hovland one of the most desirable DFS options on this slate.
The Ponies
Scottie Scheffler
- Event Scoring Average: 67.50
- Notable Course History: T4 (2022 Season), T18 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $11,400 FanDuel Price: TBD
After starting 2022 on a blistering, unsustainable pace, Scottie Scheffler has now gone over six months without a victory. It's a bit of a misleading stat, however, as the young Texan has been oh-so-close to multiple victories since slipping on a green jacket in April. The 26-year-old has posted four top-three finishes since his last win.
We can trace Scheffler's lack of recent wins directly to a cool putter. Over his nine measured starts since the Masters, he's lost strokes on the greens in seven of those events. On the flip side, the ball striking has remained tremendous, as Scheffler's gained strokes T2G in each of the aforementioned nine starts. Put simply, a win will come when he puts things together with the flat stick.
There's a strong chance that happens at Mayakoba, a golf course where he's played well in two previous starts and was in the mix last year before ultimately settling for a T4. While there are some strong players in this field, Scheffler remains the cream of the crop this week from an overall talent standpoint.
Aaron Wise
- Event Scoring Average: 68.35
- Notable Course History: T15 (2022 Season), T2 ('21), MC ('20), T10 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $10,200 FanDuel Price: TBD
The former NCAA Individual champion heads to Mexico with a tantalizing blend of strong recent form and impressive course history. Wise has been consistently elite at El Camaleon, recording top-15 finishes in three of his last four Mayakoba starts. That run was highlighted by a runner-up finish two years ago, a week that featured a final-round 63 that left him one shot out of a playoff.
While he's a former winner on the PGA Tour, Wise is coming off perhaps his most complete and consistent season as a pro. He finished the 2021-22 season ranked inside the top-25 on the PGA Tour in SG: Total, T2G, and Approach, en route to making the cut in 19 of 24 starts with four top-10s. The catalyst for his consistency is an overhauled putting stroke. He went from 174th on the Tour in SG: Putting in 2020-21 to finishing 81st last season. Fresh off a T6 at the CJ Cup two weeks ago, we can expect Wise to once again thrive in this event.
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Emiliano Grillo
- Event Scoring Average: 68.14
- Notable Course History: MC (2022 Season), T8 ('21), 15th ('19), T9 ('18), T10 ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $9,100 FanDuel Price: TBD
Even when we factor in a missed cut in last year's edition of the Mayakoba Classic, the often-erratic Argentinian has found quite an impressive overall level of consistency in Mexico. Across six career starts in the event, Grillo has made five cuts with an eye-opening three top-10 finishes.
The man with a 68.14 career scoring average at El Camaleon heads to this year's edition with his game firing. In addition to a pair of runner-up finishes at the tail end of summer, Grillo has also posted two top-five results across his last four Swing Season starts.
Adam Long
- Event Scoring Average: 67.00
- Notable Course History: T22 (2022 Season), T3 ('21), T2 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $7,400 FanDuel Price: TBD
It might come as a shock that Adam Long holds the lowest Mayakoba career scoring average among this week's field. The journeyman has been nothing short of a superstar over his three previous starts in this event, with last year's T22 standing as his worst finish in the event after he posted back-to-back top-three results in the two previous years.
Long has flashed enough long-term form to be bullish on his prospects again this year. He closed out the PGA Tour's regular season with top-25s in four of his last five starts and has now run off three straight made cuts during the Swing Season. At $7.4k, he represents a nice salary-saving option in GPPs.
Joel Dahmen
- Event Scoring Average: 68.40
- Notable Course History: T20 (2021 Season), T6 ('20), T23 ('18)
- DraftKings Price: $7,200 FanDuel Price: TBD
While this is a fairly strong field, I'm a little surprised to find Joel Dahmen down at $7.2k. His course history and recent form indicate he's a sharp value play on this slate.
Joely D has never missed a cut in five Mayakoba starts, with three top-25 results across those outings. In addition to the obvious course fit, he's demonstrated some excellent form as of late. Dahmen has notched top-16 finishes in two of his last three. If we zoom into recent stats, he grades out second in this field in SG: T2G & sixth in SG: Approach over his last eight measured rounds.
Dahmen isn't the type of player whose game translates to every course on the schedule, but El Camaleon is certainly one of his favorites, and it's tough to argue with his recent output. Fire him up as one of the slate's best value plays.
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