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Our string of two straight Thursday Night Football bangers likely comes to an end this week when the injury-plagued New York Giants visit the San Franciso 49ers. Last week's Vikings-Eagles matchup turned into a fantasy bonanza, and while that might be the case for the 49ers in Week 3, it's hard to make a case that the Giants can stay competitive after losing their best offensive weapon in Saquon Barkley.
The Giants stayed in Arizona this week after their historic comeback against the Cardinals, so rest and travel isn't a factor here. What will be a factor, however, is the fact that the 49ers' defense has top-end playmakers all over the field and the Giants just don't have the prerequisite offensive pieces to put up much of a fight.
Both teams are coming off big wins and are looking to build more momentum in Week 3, but this will be a tough test for the Giants. I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this third Thursday Night matchup of the 2023 season.
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New York Giants @ San Franciso Giants - 8:15 pm ET
Notable Injuries:
- Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG) - Ankle - OUT
- Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, NYG) - Knee - Questionable - EXPECTED TO PLAY
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SFG) - Shoulder - Questionable - OUT
The Giants-49ers Matchup
Through about the first six and a half quarters of the New York Giants 2023 season, they looked like a group of seventh-grade B-Team playing against professional squads. But then something clicked with Daniel Jones and his squad during the third quarter on Sunday and they came back to win against Arizona 31-28 despite being down 21-0. Jones bore down on Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller, his two best offensive assets, and they finished with 15 targets, 12 receptions, and two total touchdowns.
The problem for Thursday is a semi-tanking team like Arizona is going to have those things happen from time to time. San Francisco is a different story. San Francisco is fourth in the league through two weeks with just 2.5 Red Zone scoring attempts allowed per game. They rank sixth with just 4.9 passing yards per attempt allowed, which has forced their first two opponents to try and beat them on the ground.
That has worked moderately well (the 49ers are 17th with 4.1 rush yards allowed per attempt), but now New York has to try and penetrate the defense without Barkley. Matt Breida - the likely head of the Giants running back committee - is decidedly not Saquon Barkley. Breida is almost 29 years old and hasn't attempted more than 59 rush attempts since 2019. The front seven for San Francisco should have no problem holding him in check.
On the other side of the ball, you might be aware that the Giants have allowed 71 points through their first two games. They rank bottom-six in opponents' rush yards per attempt, Red Zone scoring percentage allowed, opponents' points per play, and have forced zero turnovers through two games. This looks like a Christian McCaffrey smash spot with enough work sprinkled into the 49ers' pass-catchers to make them fantasy-viable.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SFG)
What more can really be said about Christian McCaffrey at this point? He played literally 100% of his team's snaps last week, he has eight targets in two games and has handled every San Francisco running back touch in the Red Zone. He is one of the last remaining work-horse backs in the NFL and should be deployed every week unless he physically can not get himself onto the field.
Running backs with 250+ all-purpose yards this season:
— Bijan Robinson
— Christian McCaffreyThat’s it. pic.twitter.com/5sHvg1r0IK
— StatMuse (@statmuse) September 19, 2023
Deebo Samuel (WR, SFG)
So far, the passing game for the 49ers has been a clear two-man show with both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk getting substantial amounts of volume from Brock Purdy. Samuel leads the 49ers in target share (31%) and yards after the catch (63), and is tied for the team lead in receptions (11). Samuel doesn't have a receiving score yet this year, but already has two end zone looks so that part of his game should be coming soon.
That 31% target share is seventh among all wide receivers through two weeks and Deebo is back to rushing the ball again. He has seven attempts and 46 rushing yards including a rushing touchdown so far this year. With Aiyuk sitting, Deebo could be a smash play with a ceiling outcome tonight.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SFG)
UPDATE: Brandon Aiyuk is not expected to play in this Thursday night game due to his shoulder injury
Brandon Aiyuk is simply doing amazing things catching the ball downfield this year, and we just have to monitor that the shoulder injury he suffered on Sunday doesn't impact him at all. Aiyuk leads the team in air yards, air yards share, average depth of target (aDOT), and receiving scores. This sets up perfectly for Aiyuk because the Giants are 28th in the NFL so far, allowing 10.9 yards per completion to opponents.
Aiyuk is sixth in yards per route run this season and has snuck his way into being one of the best wide receivers in the league over the past year.
WR PPR points, past calendar year:
367 - Justin Jefferson
347 - Tyreek Hill
329 - Davante Adams
319 - CeeDee Lamb
285 - Stefon Diggs
284 - A.J. Brown
280 - DeVonta Smith
250 - Brandon Aiyuk
246 - Mike Evans
241 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
241 - Tyler Lockett
239 - Amari Cooper— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 20, 2023
George Kittle (TE, SFG)
George Kittle gets the promotion up to must-start status after the news that Brandon Aiyuk will not play. Kittle is fully healthy now as he played 96% of snaps in Week 2 compared to 69% in Week 1, but he is still struggling to find his place in 2023. Despite the massive game involvement on Sunday, Kittle only saw three targets, and he caught them all for a scoreless 30 yards.
He hasn't scored yet this season, but that's largely noise. Kittle scored seven touchdowns in his last four games of 2022. But he only has a 17% target share and 10% air yards share. You likely don't have a better option, just be warned the Giants are only allowing 5.0 fantasy points per game in the early going. Aiyuk's absence gives him more security in this one, and his chances to score a touchdown have certainly gone up.
Darren Waller (TE, NYG)
With Saquon Barkley out, Darren Waller is the Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels. He's the Kevin Garnett of the 2000's Minnesota Timberwolves. He's the one bright spot on an otherwise languishing, abysmal offense.
Waller developed a rapport with Daniel Jones in training camp and is starting to pay off. Waller is the only player with more than a 20% target share for the Giants. He's the only one with over 100 receiving yards this year. And he's the only one with more than six receptions.
Now that Barkley is formally ruled out, I don't see that usage funneling to players like Matt Breida. I see it going more to the security blanket of Darren Waller.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
I would love to know what Brian Daboll said to Daniel Jones at halftime of the Arizona game in Week 2, because Jones evolved into some Michael Vick, Tom Brady hybrid during those 15 minutes of play. According to OptaStats, Jones became the first quarterback to throw for 250 yards, rush for 50 yards, throw at least two touchdowns, rush for a touchdown, and commit no turnovers in the second half of a game. Ever. Basically, Danny Dimes was perfect for a half and now he gets to try and carry that over on a short week against the 49ers.
Those numbers clearly aren't repeatable, but Jones will be called upon to throw and run a lot in this game with no Barkley to lean on. I can see him getting close to the fringe QB1 discussion for Week 3, with the rushing providing a safe fantasy floor.
Brock Purdy (QB, SFG)
How is it possible that the New York Giants have allowed 71 total points in their first two games, but are in the top half of teams with just 15.8 fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks so far? Well, it's a simple recipe. Start with one special-teams touchdown allowed, add in one defensive touchdown, then sprinkle in four rushing scores allowed, and voila! You're a team that's allowed just one passing touchdown and your pass defense numbers look respectable on paper.
I say all that to emphasize that with this 49ers defense and Christian McCaffrey getting a guaranteed 20 touches, Brock Purdy may not have to do too much in this game. He is a 2QB, Superflex quarterback for me in Week 3, but will put up serviceable numbers.
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)
Calling Slayton a "Solid" start for fantasy this week is a lot like saying Taco Bell is a "Solid" place to go for a meal. They have food. You can fill your stomach. But there may be horrific repercussions afterward.
Slayton at least can claim to have 18% of the target share on this offense (something no other receiver can), and he has a whopping 34% of the air yards. Jones might be able to connect with Slayton on one of two big plays in this one (Slayton has a 15.2 aDOT), and that could make him a decent Flex consideration.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Matt Breida (QB, NYG)
As stated above, the 49ers are just middle of the pack in opponents' rush yards per attempt this season (4.1), but that must be juxtaposed by the fact that opponents are only rushing against them 23% of the time through two weeks, the lowest rate in the league. San Francisco's offense is so powerful, it's forcing teams to throw to try and keep up, and that's not where Breida excels. Breida has 10 or fewer targets in three of the last four years (25 in the other).
Considering the fact that Daniel Jones might be the rushing safety valve this week after he ran for 59 yards against the Giants, I am not trusting Breida on a short week, against this defense, and where he might not even lead his own team in rush attempts.
Parris Campbell, Isaiah Hodgins, Jalin Hyatt (WRs, NYG)
Until further notice, there is no one from this group that deserves to be on a starting fantasy roster. None of Campbell, Hodgins, Hyatt, or even Sterling Shepherd have over a 17% target share or a 12% air yards share. Their 23 combined targets through three weeks are one fewer than the number Waller and Slayton have combined (24). It's possible that the Giants open up the passing playbook with Barkley and his 18% target share gone, but against this 49ers' secondary, I'm not taking the risk.
Kirksey’s Picks
Thursday Night season record:
Spread (0-2), Over/Under (1-1)
If my assumption is correct, the Giants should be down by multiple scores in the second half, and perhaps by multiple touchdowns. But we saw in the opening week game against the Dallas Cowboys and the Week 2 contest against the Cardinals that Brian Daboll doesn't mind leaving Danny Dimes and company in the game no matter what the score. That means the Giants should have plenty of garbage time and plenty of prevent defense from the 49ers. That should allow them to put up a late score that gets them under the 10-point spread.
We saw last week that Jones can create offense with his arm and with his legs when needed, so I think this ends up much closer to a one-score game than the 40-0 shellacking the Cowboys gave New York on the first Sunday night of the season.
Picks: Giants +10 (on a late cover), Over 44
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