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Josh's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 3/7/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
After my 2-1 career opening last Wednesday, I'm back and looking to continue with a winning record. There were unforeseen circumstances of Joel Embiid not playing in Miami but James Harden and company took care of business. The scorching hot New York Knicks dismantled my Nets +7 pick. Brandon Ingram dropped 41 on the road to win outright as small road dogs in Portland. The ML parlay did hit at +327! And I will have another one at the end of this article.
Tonight we have eight games on the NBA slate. I'll be picking a few spreads and including one over to target. We are hitting a fun stretch of the NBA season where teams really start jockeying up to improve playoff positioning. This should produce high-level basketball as teams look to build momentum going into the playoffs.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, and parlays for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, March 7th. You can find me on Twitter @Jwiesel13, I love to interact with the community and meet new people.
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NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Golden State Warriors (-4) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (241.5 total)
The last time these two teams laced it up was February 6 in Golden State. The Warriors would convincingly win 141-114 thanks to 41 points and 12 three-pointers from Klay Thompson. Each team was missing a key player. Luguentz Dort did not play for the Thunder (Dort has missed both games against the Warriors this season) and Stephen Curry’s services were unavailable for the Warriors. When they played on January 30, Curry scored 38 points to outduel Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 31 points and the Warriors won 128-120 in Oklahoma City.
After missing the last 11 games with various injuries, Curry finally returned to the Warriors lineup this past Saturday night against the Los Angeles Lakers. Though Golden State would lose, Steph played 32 minutes which is encouraging going into tonight’s game.
The Warriors are placed as 3.5-point favorites and I love the spot for them tonight. Oklahoma City has been incredibly frisky this season and is one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread. Especially in Paycom Center, OKC sports a 20-14 (58.8%) ATS in front of their home crowd. Golden State sits just 9-22 ATS and 7-24 straight up on the road this season, the worst in the NBA.
Now, with all the ATS signs pointing toward the Thunder, why take the Warriors? Golden State was coming off five straight wins (albeit all at home) before losing to the Lakers in L.A. The core of these Warriors are experienced and know it’s time to pin their ears back and play ball. Not only did Curry come back last game, but Andre Iguodala also played 14 minutes in just his fourth appearance of the season. Who knows how much Iguodala will factor into the rotation, but he was a +11 in his 14 minutes of play.
In their last six games, the Warriors rank near the top of the league in defensive rating and total net rating. Steph is back, Klay has had two big games against OKC this season, and we’re hitting the home stretch of the NBA season. Give me the Warriors to cover and extend their win streak over the Thunder to nine games dating back to 2021.
The pick: Warriors -4 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers (-2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (226.5 total)
This game will be missing its two biggest stars as LeBron James and Ja Morant will be out for their respective teams. In a weird way, their being out makes this game a bit more fun and unpredictable. It forces other players to step up and there are a number of players that can pop in this game. The Lakers picked up an excellent home win Sunday afternoon against the Warriors, while the Grizzlies got outscored 38-17 in the fourth quarter to lose on the road to the Clippers the same night.
In 12 games playing without Lebron this season, Anthony Davis has averaged 29.6 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks. In his past three games, he's scored 39, 38, and 28. This included a 28-point, 19-rebound effort in a loss to these Memphis Grizzlies in FedEx Forum. Aside from Davis, five other Lakers scored in double figures against the Warriors and they'll need a similar effort tonight.
Against the Clippers, Memphis was outrebounded 53-26 and 13-2 on the offensive glass. This is an area the Lakers need to exploit. Los Angeles has been a top-five rebounding team in their last five games. Second-chance opportunities lead to easy baskets which hopefully should lead to a Lakers win. The Grizzlies have been middle of the pact in opponent points in the paint their last five games. Look for Anthony Davis to once again have a big game against a Grizzlies team that is in turmoil.
Memphis is only 11-20-1 ATS on the road.
The pick: Lakers -2 (-110)
Brooklyn Nets (-7) @ Houston Rockets (229.5 total)
In the last ten games, Houston is bottom five in defensive rating. Brooklyn is a bit better but still in the bottom 13. Brooklyn is first in pace in that timeframe while the Rockets rank 18th. For the season as a whole, Houston is top 15 in pace. Take the last five games as another sample and both are in the bottom 20 for opponent points per game. Both offenses definitely have had their struggles but Houston ranks top ten in points per game in their last five games. Brooklyn slots in right around league average. Although it was against the Spurs, the Rockets have scored 122 and 142 points in their last two games. Brooklyn is averaging 116.4 points in their last five games and has a good shooting roster that can feast on this weak Rockets defense.
Kevin Porter Jr. returning is massive for the Rockets looking like somewhat of a competent offense. Porter also isn't a huge fan of playing defense, which is even better for the over! The Rockets give up the most three-point attempts per game. Brooklyn has attempted the fifth most threes per game over their last five.
Unless both teams grossly shoot 30 percent, there should be a good amount of scoring in this game to hit over the total.
The pick: Over 229.5 (-110)
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Favorite Money Line Parlay: NYK + GSW + DAL (+172 DK)
Underdog parlay: HOU + MIN (+609 DK)
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