RADIO
Josh's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 3/28/23. His free picks against the spread for Tuesday night's NBA slate.
It’s been a little while since I’ve taken a stab at NBA picks, but I’m back and ready to go. I had a decent night almost two weeks ago. The Miami Heat took care of business at home and covered the four-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies. A “meaningless” (meaningful to some of us) Mike Conley buzzer-beater three helped the Timberwolves cover. The only blip was the Chicago Bulls losing on a last-second three to De’Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings. It was a solid 2-1 night on straight picks and the Miami + Philly money line parlay hit at +184, the second parlay to hit in three tries. I'm now 5-4 ATS and hoping to only keep a positive record going forward.
We got six games on the slate tonight and a couple of Eastern Conference matchups I want to focus on. The Cleveland Cavaliers head to Atlanta while the Miami Heat crosses the border to Toronto. They should be two entertaining games as playoff seeding still needs to be determined with a lot of possible movement in the final 10+ games.
In this article, I’ll have some of my favorite picks against the spread and a money line parlay for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, March 28th. Follow me on Twitter @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (234.5 total)
Cleveland enters this game as a small road favorite on a four-game win streak. The Cavs have been playing well, going 8-2 in their last ten games. Over their streak, it’s not like they are putting up 120+ points per game (they are at 114, tied for 17th), or shooting crazy percentages from the floor. Metrics like this always stand out to me because teams have tendencies to get hot and ride hot shooting for stretches. The Cavs aren’t doing anything spectacular on offense and over their last ten games, they are 21st in scoring, 13th in field goal percentage, 19th in three-point percentage, and tenth in offensive rating.
The Cavaliers are a team built on their defense and the numbers have reflected that all season. Taking the last ten games as a sample size, the Cavs are giving up the second least number of points per game. A stingy bunch, opponents have hit the second-fewest field goals and three-pointers per game in this stretch. It’s not a fluke as Cleveland gives up the fewest points, field goals, and three-pointers per game while also having the best defensive rating in the NBA.
Trae Young’s Hawks are a fun team on offense. They are top five in points per game, top ten in field goal percentage, and play at a fast pace. Over their last five games, they have been averaging the most points in the paint with a little over 60 per game. It’s strength against strength as Cleveland has given up the third-fewest PITP per game in their last five at 44.4.
I like the way the Cavs are playing, and their defense has remained rock solid. Cleveland extends their win streak to five, covering the small spread in ATL.
The pick: Cleveland Cavaliers ML (-112 FD)
Toronto Raptors (-3) vs. Miami Heat (219.5 total)
The Toronto Raptors had a chance to blow everything up. Everyone not named Scottie Barnes was a tradeable asset, but they opted to go the other way. Trading for Spurs center Jakob Poeltl, Toronto has been playing much better. In games that Poeltl has played at least 25+ minutes, the Raptors are 11-7. They are also 9-1 at home since the trade when he plays around his normal minutes. I’m not saying Poeltl is a game-breaking player, but he is clearly the defensive center in the middle they’ve been missing all season.
Over their last 15 games, Toronto is averaging the third most points off turnovers and fifth most second-chance points. They’ve allowed the fewest second-chance points and third-fewest points off turnovers in that timeframe. It’s been a balanced attack with Fred VanVleet (21.2), Pascal Siakam (19.9), O.G. Anunoby (17.7), Scottie Barnes (15.8), Jakob Poeltl (15.4), and Gary Trent Jr. (13.4) all averaging at least 13 points per game in March.
Miami is playing well as of late, going 6-4 in their last ten. The Heat are seventh in field goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage during this stretch. The Raptors are allowing the fewest made and attempted three-pointers per game in this same ten-game window. For the season, Miami is a bottom-five team in field goal and three-point percentage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a regression coming, and Toronto has given up the seventh fewest points per game in their last ten.
Toronto is 5-1 at home straight up in March and 23-15-1 ATS at home this season according to Action Network. Miami is just 3-7 in their last ten road games and 15-21 on the road this season.
I like Toronto to keep things rolling at Scotiabank Arena and get themselves back to .500 on the season.
The pick; Toronto Raptors -3 (-108 FD)
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Favorite Money Line Parlay: TOR + MEM + GSW (+179 DK)
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