RADIO
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! After a small four-game slate yesterday, we have a much larger 13-game slate to look at today.
On Friday, I was able to go 2-1. The plucky Blazers won the first quarter against the Wizards, and the Pacers covered their 5.5-point spread at home. My only loss came when the Bucks did not cover the 7.5-point first-half spread. To be fair, I didn't know Giannis was going to be out and likely would've avoided that game if I did. Let's have a good start to the new week with today's picks.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 3:30 p.m. EDT on Sunday, April 7. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Portland Trail Blazers (+16.5) at Boston Celtics (217.5 total)
I'm going to keep taking the Blazers early in games until it burns me. I've won my last two picks, with Portland covering the first half against the Hornets on Wednesday and the first quarter on Friday night.
Portland has won the first quarter in three straight games and four of its last five. Going up against Boston is a totally different beast, but I'm just asking them to keep it mildly close for 12 minutes. Against the Wizards on Friday, the Blazers put up 32 in the opening quarter. They hit 50 percent of their FGAs and went 3-of-7 from the three-point line. In my article on Friday, I talked about how the Blazers were winning these quarters and not even shooting well.
I'm aware of how good Boston has been at home this season, but there's something about this Blazers team that I like. In those past three quarters, they held opponents to under 43 percent field-goal shooting and 23.1 percent from three. What I like is that they are limiting opponents to under nine attempts per game. Boston is the best first-quarter three-point shooting team in the NBA, so Portland is going to have to defend the line well. They are holding opposing teams to 23.3 points in this recent stretch. Deandre Ayton and Dalano Banton have been leading the way for the Blazers.
𝘴𝘩𝘦𝘦𝘦𝘦𝘦𝘦𝘦𝘦𝘦𝘦𝘴𝘩 pic.twitter.com/JiwmFjSMY5
— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) April 6, 2024
The Pick: Blazers First Quarter +5.5 (-115 ESPN BET)
Miami Heat (+2.5) at Indiana Pacers (226.5 total)
We are starting to enter Miami Heat season with the playoffs approaching, and I am all over them in this game. Both teams come into this game off of wins. The Heat won 119-104 on the road in Houston, while the Pacers won 126-112 at home against the Thunder.
These teams are practically tied in the standings, and tonight is essentially a playoff game with the season series being split 1-1. In a big-game situation like tonight, I just trust the Miami Heat and their defense. In Miami's last 10 games, they are holding to 101.6 points per game. Indiana is scoring the ball at a high clip, like they have been all season. This team does run on volume, and the Heat have been good at limiting shots. Miami is holding opponents to 83.2 FGAs per game, and it is hitting 45.4 percent of them.
Pace is going to be important in this game since they play in contrasting styles. Indiana is one of the fastest teams, while Miami is one of the slowest. I do believe Miami will dictate pace, which is also why I think they win. On offense, the Heat have been scoring better recently. Jimmy Butler and Co. are averaging 118.8 points while hitting 49.5 percent of their FGAs and 40.6 percent from three.
Miami has actually averaged more points than the Pacers in both teams' last five games and shot better percentages. The Heat got a huge boost Friday night with Tyler Herro playing his first game since February 23. In 25 minutes off the bench, the Heat forward had 17 points, five rebounds, and six assists on 50 percent field-goal shooting.
Miami feels like a team rounding into form, and I wouldn't want to play them right now. Tyrese Haliburton is listed as questionable for the Pacers. I think he will play in this big game, but I'll bank on the Heat being able to keep him under control tonight.
Tyler returned & looked like he didn't miss a beat, scoring 17 points (7/14 FGM) and dishing out 6 assists. pic.twitter.com/T88t0ycyeI
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) April 6, 2024
The Pick: Heat +2.5 (-115 ESPN BET)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Chicago Bulls (+7) at Orlando Magic (209.5 total)
The spread does feel a little high in this game, but I'm going to roll with the Magic. Orlando is an NBA-best 49-28 ATS this season and 26-13 at home. The Magic are coming off an odd 124-115 loss in Charlotte on Friday night. Charlotte jumped out to a 38-23 first quarter lead. They played the next two quarters even, and then the Magic outscored the Hornets by six in the fourth.
Chicago beat the Knicks in a close game Friday night. Coby White left the game with an injury and is questionable to play tonight. Going up against one of the NBA's best defenses while iffy is not a side I want to be on. Coby is second in assists per game this season. Alex Caruso is also questionable and dealing with an ankle injury. Caruso has the best defensive rating out of any player on the Bulls playing major minutes. Those are two significant injuries for a physical Magic team to exploit if they do play.
In both team's last five games, they are averaging 110.2 points. Orlando is hitting more threes and getting to the line at a higher clip. Neither team is great on offense, so finding any edge in that area will be big. The Magic are 21st in offensive rating at home this season, but they are second in defensive rating. Orlando has the fifth-best net rating among home teams this season. Despite the bad Hornets game, the Magic are still holding opponents to 102.7 points in their last 10 games.
P5 with tha block
Dell with tha three17-5 run pic.twitter.com/XQsiukkIV1
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) April 5, 2024
The Pick: Magic -7 (-110 FanDuel)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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