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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering more free MLB betting content for you. The regular season is winding down, which creates more variables and more opportunities to gain an edge. Football season can wait because I'll be all over baseball today!
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Here you can keep up with my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water this season, going 21-23-1 on my betting picks so far, and we'll work on getting back in the green today. Now, let’s dig into my recommendations for September 23, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Twins
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIN (-218)
LAA: Kenny Rosenberg | MIN: Sonny Gray
We'll begin with a matinee showdown between the Angels and Twins. The Angels' season has abruptly derailed since the trade deadline, and they have been one of the most steamrolled teams in recent months. Meanwhile, Minnesota has clinched the American League Central crown thanks to a strong second half. These two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum, and the favorite should become abundantly obvious.
Kenny Rosenberg expects to get the start for Los Angeles on Saturday. He's posted a weak 5.48 ERA and 5.41 xFIP through 23 MLB innings this season. The sample size is unreliably small, but Rosenberg's 4.93 xFIP through 100 innings in Triple-A sets a reasonable expectation. He's not a particularly impressive opponent for this potent Minnesota lineup.
The Twins have been one of baseball's hottest teams in the second half, scoring 5.5 runs per game. They've posted a 122 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the All-Star break. That includes a .809 OPS and .345 wOBA. Minnesota is missing Royce Lewis at the moment, but they remain one of baseball's scarier offenses, and Rosenberg should have his hands full today.
For the Twins, Sonny Gray gets the nod. His 2.84 ERA is somewhat deceiving, though Gray is undoubtedly the better pitcher in this matchup. Through 30 starts, he sports a strong 3.72 xERA and 3.73 xFIP. That includes a .299 xwOBA, .244 xBA, and .363 xSLG. Gray has pitched at least six innings in 10 of his last 11 appearances, surrendering three earned runs or less in all but one of those outings.
The Angels are debatably baseball's weakest offense right now. They're without Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, and most other relevant bats on their roster. Los Angeles is scoring only 3.4 runs per game in September. That figure includes a horrible 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .674 OPS and .290 wOBA. There's really not much reason to expect the Angels can put up a big number on the scoreboard.
The Angels are in an absolute free-fall, and I don't see how they overcome Sonny Gray today. The edge is with the Twins on both offense and defense, and I'm comfortable picking Minnesota to win decisively.
Pick: Twins -1.5 Run Line (+102) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Guardians
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL (-142)
BAL: John Means | CLE: Cal Quantrill
Moving on to Cleveland for a square-off between the Orioles and Guardians. While Cleveland has been eliminated from postseason contention, Baltimore's games still matter. The Orioles have secured a spot in the playoffs but will need to keep winning to close out the American League East title. In any event, I believe this game has a lot more offensive upside than the run total gives it credit for.
John Means will get the start for Baltimore today. He's pitched just 10 innings this season and only 18 total innings since 2021, thanks to injury. Means carries a 7.25 xFIP in his brief 2023 sample size and posted a 4.36 xFIP during his last full season in 2021. At 30 years old, there's a reasonable chance that he will return to form at some point, but Means has never been a dominant pitcher, and he's looking rusty these days.
The Guardians have been one of the worst offenses against left-handed pitchers this season. That said, they've picked up their play to a respectable level recently. Cleveland sports a .721 OPS and .311 wOBA versus southpaws since the beginning of September. They're also at full strength for the first time in a while, with Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor inserted back into the lineup this past week.
For Cleveland, Cal Quantrill will take the bump. Across 17 appearances, he carries an uninspiring 5.79 xERA and 5.47 xFIP. That includes an atrocious .287 xBA, .484 xSLG, .364 xwOBA, alongside a nonexistent 12.8% strikeout rate. Quantrill is coming off a string of effective outings, but the underlying numbers don't support his sustained success.
The Orioles' offense continues to roll. They've been scoring 5.8 runs per game since the beginning of September. That mark consists of a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .781 OPS and a .334 wOBA. Baltimore is without Ryan Mountcastle for the moment, but names like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Anthony Santander keep their offense potent.
In summary, I don't trust either pitcher today. Quantrill and Means both have reasonable suspicions. I suspect one or both of them get knocked out early today. The eight-run total feels low, given the uncertainty on the mound, and I will absolutely favor the over.
Pick: Over 8 Total Runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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