49ers vs. Seahawks Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Brandon Aiyuk, Kenneth Walker, Geno Smith, George Kittle, Tyler Lockett, Jauan Jennings

December 14, 2022

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em, and lineup advice for the 49ers v. Seahawks Thursday Night game in Week 15 (2022). Ellis Johnson provides detailed player breakdowns and TNF matchup analysis.

Purdy, Purdy, Purdy, Purdayy! Could it be, could it be, that you’re joking with me? There’s a little Kaiser Chiefs song reference from their 2007 song Ruby. It fits all too well, as Brock Purdy had a flawless debut. Now on Thursday, we get to see if he is for real or just joking when he goes up against a floundering divisional opponent.

The Seahawks are coming off a devastating dominant performance by the lowly Carolina Panthers. Seriously, if you watched any of that game, they were straight-up outplayed. Now they get to go against a team so complete, it would seem that even Josh Rosen and Nathan Peterman could succeed. I don’t want to take away from Purdy, power to him, but this team is oozing talent everywhere. 

It’s a huge game for the NFC West, as a loss to the 49ers would basically put the division out of reach for Seattle. Furthermore, the Seahawks are in the middle of a brawl for the Wild Card spots between the rest of the entire NFC East, the shocking Detroit Lions, and old man Aaron Rodgers. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Thursday Night Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em article.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks - 8:15 pm ET

Notable Injuries:

• Deebo Samuel (WR, SF) - Ankle - Out
• Brock Purdy (QB, SF) - Oblique - Questionable
• Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA) - Ankle - Healthy
• DeeJay Dallas (RB, SEA) - Ankle - Questionable

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)

What a match made in heaven. Ever since their trade with the Panthers, the 49ers' offense has been clicking. CMC himself has come out and said how nice it is to not necessarily be the best player on the team and be able to rely on others. Even if this is true, this offense loves to lean on the star RB.

CMC doesn’t have bad weeks. It’s incredible that a player can go from one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best, play in every game, and not have a week with fewer than seven fantasy points. In his first full game with Purdy, CMC managed to rack up 154 yards and two scores. He’s just as locked in as ever.

This week, he faces a Seattle team that enjoys getting run on. Over the last five weeks, they are allowing the most fantasy points (28.6) and rushing yards (133), as well as the second-most rushing TDs to the RB position. CMC is going to have a day, and he’ll be my RB1 for the week. 

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)

Aiyuk is a really good player. Often overshadowed by Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and CMC, Aiyuk’s success seems to fly under the radar. There is one thing that should be well-known about this game, and that is you play him in fantasy when Deebo is out.

Without Samuel, he always seems to rise to the occasion and have a great performance. Samuel is currently dealing with what is believed to be a high ankle sprain, and most likely won’t play. Although Seattle is allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to WRs over the last five weeks, he should still be started. In his only full game with Purdy, he managed only two receptions but found 54 yards and a score. I think his TD streak will continue and the Pie Shop* is open for the young WR.  

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week. (Season Calls: 10-10)

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett  (WR, SEA)

The only relatively weak spot of this 49ers' defense is the WR position. They are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points and third-most yards to the position over their last five games. That matches up perfectly for the Seahawks as without Kenneth Walker III, they are forced to rely on their pass catchers. Thankfully both Metcalf and Lockett have been on fire recently. 

Metcalf has 70 or more yards in each of his last four games and is on a two-game TD streak. As for Lockett, he is on an incredible streak of six straight games with a touchdown and has at least 60 yards in all of those games except one. This is wild production from both WRs and they’ll be needed in order to hang with this electric 49ers offense. Of the two, I’d play Lockett over Metcalf as he’s just been that good lately, but who cares because you’re starting both no matter what.

George Kittle (TE, SF)

Despite being relatively mediocre all season, there is one rule in fantasy regarding TEs. That rule is that you always play them against Arizona and Seattle. Seriously, these two teams have been historically bad at defending the position all season. 

There is no way you have had Kittle and not played him every week, so continue to do that in this matchup. Shockingly, over the last five games, the Seahawks have found the TE position and allowed the seventh-fewest points. However, I associated that with their schedule as they have played teams such as the Panthers, Raiders, and Rams, who all haven’t had consistent TE play. Especially if Deebo Samuel sits, start Kittle and expect a healthy target share.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Geno Smith (QB, SEA)

It’s been an incredible season for Geno Smith. Not only does he seem like a stand-up guy, but he also has put himself in the conversation to be a long-term starter in the league. Although I think Seattle should draft a QB with the Broncos' pick and have them sit behind Geno for a year, we’ll see what they end up doing.

Anyways, he now faces an incredible defense at a huge point of their season. Over the last five weeks, the 49ers are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the QB position and the most interceptions per game. With four interceptions in his previous three games, this is not a good sign. However, as I mentioned with his receivers, I think they’ll need to pass in this game, making him a mid-tier QB2. I’d play Daniel Jones over him this week but would sit options such as Jared Goff and Derek Carr.

Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups

Brock Purdy (QB, SF)

In his only two games this season, he has been very functional. Scoring 14 and 21 fantasy points, respectively, he should be in consideration in Superflex leagues. Although I think this 49ers team will find all of their success on the ground, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Purdy throw two-plus touchdowns in this game. Assuming his MRI on his oblique is alright, he can be looked at in deeper leagues.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Seattle Running Backs (RB, SEA)

Travis Homer led the way last week, playing 91% of snaps, but Kenneth Walker III will return this week. After missing last week's game, Walker has now been removed from the injury report, which should put Homer in the backup role. However, this 49ers' defense is not one to be reckoned with. They are allowing the fewest yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points to the position. DeeJay Dallas did not practice this week, and is doubtful to play. Regardless of who is available, I’m avoiding this backfield altogether.

Noah Fant and Will Dissly (TE, SEA)

The fact that I have listed two TEs on the same team is never a good sign. Although one of these two always seems to make a big play each game, you can’t rely on a coin flip at this point of your fantasy season. 

Jauan Jennings (WR, SF) and Marquise Goodwin (WR, SEA)

Of the two, Goodwin is the one with the most upside and potential consistency, but there are way too many risks in my opinion to look his way. As for Jennings, his two games with Purdy have failed to crack over four fantasy points. There’s too much risk for my taste in these options.

Honorable Mention: Jordan Mason (RB, SF)

Ellis’ Picks

49ers -3.5 (7-9), Over 43.5 (5-11)

Career Thursday Night record: Spread (29-23), Over/Under (26-26)

I want to take a second to acknowledge last Thursday’s matchup. I'm not even a Raiders fan, and I'm stumped on what the heck happened. The Raiders had one of the most embarrassing performances of this season, and I hate saying that. Look at how much Derek Carr cares about this team (here). It’s impossible not to feel for the guy. However, this team needs to be better. Davante Adams didn’t even get targeted in the second half last week! We’ll see what they do this offseason, whether it’s Josh McDaniels, Carr, or some big FA splash, something needs to happen.

Anyways, all of that to say we went 0-2 on our picks last week. This week’s divisional matchup has the 49ers opening as 3.5-point favorites on the road. I love that. Give me every bit of the Brock Purdy line adjustment, and let me smash the better team all around. As for the over-under, it’s hard to see a divisional game in Seattle in December find the over, but I think that’s their only way to stay in this game. As a result, I’m going out on a limb and picking the over. 

Thanks for starting your week with my analysis. I’ll be here next week to prepare for the Holidays and the Thursday night matchup between the electric offense of the Jaguars and the show-stopping Jets defense.

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