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Kevin Luchansky highlights the top FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks for 9/25/18, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
I can't believe our beloved regular season is coming to a close. Soon we'll be seeing ALCS and NLCS schedules with two-to-three games and we'll long for the double-digit game slates - so cherish them these last few days. We've got a healthy 12 game slate on deck for this evening, with a handful of good pitching options to choose from.
Nothing too crazy sticking out with the early Vegas lines, but I'll call out some notable favorites and the top implied run totals, which are helpful for cash games and tournaments, too. The biggest favorites of the night are the Rockies (-185), the Angels (-177), Cubs (-170), Mets (-164) and the Giants at -145. As for implied run totals, the Rockies are at the top of that list as well with a lofty 6.2 projection, followed by a steep drop down to the Angels (4.9), Twins (4.6), Phillies (4.5) and the Cardinals and Athletics both at 4.4.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 9/26/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @kpLuch.
FanDuel DFS Pitcher
Jacob deGrom - SP, vs ATL ($12,300)
It's the final start of the season for Cy Young hopeful deGrom - think he might be a little motivated to pitch lights out tonight against the Braves? Vegas certainly seems to think so, as the Braves have the lowest implied run total of the night at 3.1 and the Mets, who began as favorites, have already seen the moneyline move in their favor. By just about every measure, deGrom has been fantastic this season, posting a 0.9 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9 and a 11.5 K/9. He's facing a solid offense, but one that might be filled with more backups than regulars tonight as the Braves have already clinched the NL East crown. Their projected lineup gives deGrom a better strikeout projection than normal against Atlanta, as they usually hover around the 20% K rate mark, but that number sits at 24.5% today. Additionally, his batted ball profile over his last three starts has been tremendous, highlighted by a 16% hard hit rate allowed and a 9% line drive rate.
Jake Odorizzi - SP, vs DET ($7,700)
With Odorizzi's recent improved pitching performance in mind, he profiles as a cash-saving, upside play in tournaments tonight. He's greatly surpassed salary expectations in his last two starts, and in that stretch, he's generating more swings and misses and his average velocity is up over a mile per hour as well. He's pitching at home in Minnesota which profiles well for a pitcher like him, and the matchup is good if not great, too. This Detroit lineup is one he handled with ease just two weeks ago, and their projected lineup doesn't strike much fear. They've got a 26% K rate against righties this season to go with a lowly .292 wOBA. The trust in Odorizzi isn't quite there for me in cash game formats - especially when you have elite floor+ceiling guys on the slate like deGrom - but the upside and big possible ROI makes him an enticing GPP option.
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Matt Olson - 1B, at SEA ($3,800)
First base is loaded with good options tonight, and the hardest thing about making a decision among that group is that many are similarly priced. My lean is to go with Olson, as I really like the matchup for him and, percentage wise, he's getting quite a large positive park shift (Oakland - 0.86 HR/9 to LHB; Seattle - 1.06 HR/9 to LHB). Olson boasts a high wOBA and ISO split, at .355 and .249, respectively, and also has a 44% hard hit rate over the past 11 games.
Daniel Murphy - 2B, vs PIT ($3,300)
I'm going to keep riding the Murphy train so long as he's hitting out of the leadoff spot and facing a right-handed pitcher in a good hitter's environment. He checks all three of those boxes tonight and faces a pitcher in Ivan Nova that has allowed a .345 wOBA to lefties as well as surrendering 1.6 HR/9. Murphy boasts a strong .379 wOBA against righties this year and a solid .179 ISO.
Josh Donaldson - 3B, at CWS ($3,500)
This price is a real steal when you consider the matchup, hitting environment and home run upside for Wednesday night. Donaldson has been making great contact with the ball since his return from the DL and has shown little signs of rust. He has a really strong 48% hard hit rate over the past two weeks and also happens to be a southpaw specialist - and he'll face one tonight in Chicago's Jace Fry. For the season, Donaldson has posted a .311 ISO split.
Trevor Story - SS, vs PHI ($4,200)
Exposure to the top projected offense without breaking the bank - that's exactly what Trevor Story provides tonight. Opposing starter Nick Pivetta can get himself intro trouble with the long ball, as he's allowed a 17% HR/FB ratio at home in Philadelphia - and he gets a big negative park shift tonight that wont do him any favors. Story has a lot of power, giving him good upside in this matchup, showcased by a .224 ISO.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Matt Holliday - OF, vs PHI ($3,300)
While Story represents big upside tonight, Holliday does so too, but at a more "bargain bin" type price. It's a small sample size, but Holliday has been great for Colorado down the stretch here, highlighted by his wOBA and ISO split at .412 and .333, respectively. He's also been locked in with hard contact, posting a 50% rate over the past seven days.
Mike Trout - OF, vs TEX ($5,000)
Of all the spend-up this options, none are more enticing than Trout. His .433 wOBA split against southpaws this year is uber-elite, and it provides a nice fantasy points floor - as does the implied run total of 4.9 runs, one of the tops on this slate. Trout's produced a 41% hard hit rate in his last 12 starts and faces an inexperienced starter and an awful bullpen.
