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John breaks down his biggest dynasty fantasy football sleepers at quarterback for the 2025 season. Which QBs are sleepers who you should make moves for?
Pretty much every NFL season features quarterbacks breaking out for the first time. It's a big advantage for you in dynasty fantasy football to get out ahead of the breakouts and identify the players early.
A revolving door of breakout QBs on your roster can give you plenty of leverage in trades, as you can then flip them for picks or players who will break out the next season. Or maybe you don't have any good quarterbacks for your long-term future.
In either case, here are three possible breakout sleeper QBs for 2025. They will all exceed expectations and rise in ADP after the season. At least I think so. Let's dive in.
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J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
The collapse of Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold in the final two games of his 2024-25 season was remarkably enlightening. They reminded us that no, Darnold didn't magically become a good quarterback, and yes, Minnesota has an obscenely good situation for quarterbacks, both in fantasy football and in real life.
The Vikings have one of the best (when healthy) pass-protecting offensive lines in football, arguably the best (when healthy) pass-catching corps featuring wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, and a fantastic head coach in Kevin O'Connell, who runs one of the best offensive systems in the NFL.
They've had not only great production but great stability for the last few seasons, and O'Connell was just extended, so that's not changing.
JJ McCarthy is the future of the Vikings franchise.
It’d be a HORRIBLE mistake to give Sam Darnold $100 million guaranteed when his backup is younger and better.
McCarthy has also been using the same VR training some attribute Jayden Daniels’ immense success to.
Let him cook… pic.twitter.com/dqNOkBgKZu
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) February 17, 2025
Unfortunately, McCarthy missed his entire rookie season due to a meniscus injury he suffered during the preseason. But all he has to do is not completely collapse under pressure like Darnold did, and he'll be fantasy-startable moving forward. He'll probably finish the 2025 season as a QB1 since he's a good quarterback.
18 mins of JJ McCarthy proving the doubters wrong
He can face pressure and deliver, time and time again.
pic.twitter.com/zME5AWmDSL— ⤜ cody ⤛ (@codyy11_) February 22, 2025
His college tape is awesome, he led his team to a national championship, and he has all the measurables and intangibles to succeed. There will be some rough patches early as he develops, surely, but that's how the NFL works. He has a ton of arm talent and athleticism, is excellent at maneuvering in the pocket, and has extremely underrated wheels.
Was just watching some Blake Corum highlights before i dove into the all-22 to get a better feel for his strengths, when i came upon this...
Nothing to see here, just JJ McCarthy running stride for stride with one of the best RBs in the country, lol.
Sick Athlete pic.twitter.com/jZnbLnrKhD
— 𝙆𝙖𝙨𝙚 (@verysadvikings) December 6, 2023
Rushing upside is a big edge for QBs, and McCarthy's is relatively unheralded right now. If they decide to use his legs even moderately, he should be an easy QB1 in 2025, which will make his value shoot up. So, you should get your hands on him if you don't have him.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
It would be really nice for Maye if he had an offensive line or even one good receiver. He had neither in 2024, but his tape showed massive upside, both as a passer and a rusher. His stats were lackluster, but it's a plus that he did anything at all with what he had to work with. Which was virtually nothing.
His best pass-catcher was a 29-30-year-old Hunter Henry, a tight end who's past his prime. He also had, by nearly every evaluation system in existence, the worst offensive line in the NFL, and was constantly under pressure from all sides.
Pass protection composite ratings.
Congrats to Bo Nix. Better luck next time Drake Maye. pic.twitter.com/xydOOHGFXI
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 7, 2025
Yet in 13 games, he logged five contests with over 20 fantasy points. His film was excellent, showing a quarterback who threw with anticipation, was accurate, could play on schedule, had excellent mobility and improvisational skills, and had the raw athleticism to add significant rushing upside.
Historical rookie QB seasons. Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye in dynamic territory pic.twitter.com/tU48uKPVh5
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) December 19, 2024
And even if he doesn't get everything he wants (he probably won't), his willingness to scramble and positive rushing outcomes this past season (54 carries, 421 yards, two touchdowns) present a big upside. Even with just a better offensive system, he should improve on all those numbers. He averaged 7.8 yards per carry, so there's probably plenty of untapped potential.
And though his passing numbers were lackluster, he had the worst pass-catching group in the league this past season. The Patriots had no true WR1 and wide receiver Kayshon Boutte was Maye's best wideout down the stretch. It's almost impossible to succeed with that supporting cast.
The Patriots hired Mike Vrabel to be their new head coach. He helped several Tennessee Titans teams with weak rosters overachieve, and he should do the same with the Pats in 2025. And it's likely the team will prioritize getting WR and OL help in the draft and free agency. Much better days are ahead for No. 10. He's a good buy target in dynasty.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
The season Purdy had in 2024 wasn't indicative of how he can produce long-term in fantasy football. The 49ers offense, especially among the skill-position players, was decimated by terrible injury luck last season. What should have been a stacked pass-catching group turned into something resembling a hospital ward. There were other issues as well.
Firstly, star running back Christian McCaffrey, who's a big part of the passing game, didn't play until Week 10. Star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out, missed much of the offseason program, and had a very rusty connection with Purdy. Then, he tore his ACL and MCL and damaged his meniscus in Week 7.
WR Deebo Samuel Sr. didn't play in Week 3 due to a calf strain, then caught pneumonia in Week 7. Anyone who's had pneumonia knows it can take months to recover, and Samuel's production nosedived from Week 8 onward. It seems highly unlikely he was near 100 percent.
Kyle Shanahan shared that Deebo Samuel Sr. is currently in the hospital dealing with fluid in his lungs and pneumonia.
Wishing Deebo a speedy recovery 🙏 pic.twitter.com/AORkgBmHs4
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 21, 2024
Additionally, the team selected rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He was shot in the offseason and missed the first six games as a result. He produced very well in the last two games of the season, but his breakout was delayed, if that's what it was.
The result was Purdy commandeering an offense that had very little consistency and much less explosiveness. While tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Jauan Jennings played well, Purdy's production was hurt by the losses of so many of his stars. Yet, he continued to play well.
Brock Purdy makes the throw before Ricky Pearsall has even made his break. Elite anticipation. He has elite mental processing and the mind is the most important aspect of playing QB. He’s worth every penny pic.twitter.com/kCwf1Gg4sW
— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) December 31, 2024
He finished as the QB14 despite the turmoil around him, and the fact he played just 15 games. He should be viewed as a top-10 fantasy QB moving forward. He's tied to an elite offense that's stacked with talent, even if some of the receivers leave for other teams, and has proved to be one of the league's best QBs.
And having head coach Kyle Shanahan doesn't hurt -- the 49ers have had a top-10 offense in yards per game every season since 2021.
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