December 13, 2022

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week 15 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back again to open up the week 15 DFS slate! If you're new here, this is not meant to be a definitive "picks" article, but just a first look to point out the best game environments and best projections and value plays. Quite often, by Sunday I'm not on all of the plays I start with here, but it does set the table for the rest of the week of search.

Again, I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, December 18th. Here we go!

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Game Environments

Bye weeks are done, however now we enter the holiday schedule which gives us some Saturday action. There are three Saturday games this week, so combining that with the usual Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games - and we have just a ten-game main slate. Here are the teams not on the main slate:

• 49ers
• Seahawks
• Colts
• Vikings
• Ravens
• Browns
• Dolphins
• Bills
• Giants
• Commanders
• Rams
• Packers

This leaves things pretty thin, with no real standout game environments to attack. Here are the top project totals as things stand right now:

1. Eagles @ Bears, 49 O/U, 9 point spread
2. Chiefs @ Texans, 49 O/U, 14 point spread
3. Cowboys @ Jaguars, 48 O/U, 5 point spread
4. Titans @ Chargers, 47 O/U, 3 point spread

Every other game is at 45 or below. What we see here is the highest-powered offenses on the slate (Eagles, Chiefs, and yeah I'll say it - the Lions!) either in complete blowout spots or up against tough defenses (the Lions take on the Jets in New York).

No obvious spots to attack, but let's get into the plays and pick out the individual players who are setting up best.

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

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I'm not an expert, but I am gaining (false) confidence as the season grows in age. It seems to me that there are five viable options here. Let's talk about them all.

#1 Patrick Mahomes

The league's best QB against the league's worst team. There's an obviously elite floor here for Mahomes, his minimum points output is 17 and he's cleared 25 points on six occasions. The problem we have here is that it's pretty easy to fail at $8,100 - and it's actually pretty tough to really succeed at that price when you are facing an offense unlikely to score a bunch of points along with you. No QB has exceeded 25 DraftKings points against Houston all year since they are so easily beatable on the ground and involved in so many blowouts. It's a pretty easy cash-game fade on Mahomes here, but you can certainly always justify in GPP.

#2 Jalen Hurts

We have the same blowout risk with Hurts here, but the Eagles have been blowing teams out left and right it hasn't been a problem for Jalen.

Hurts has run for 86, 157, 12, and 77 yards in his last four weeks. He has rushed for more than 50 yards six times this year, and it's pretty much indiscriminate of opponent. The floor is absurdly high for Hurts here, and the Bears are a team that have a little bit of a chance to keep the game close with how electric their quarterback is. At this point right now, Hurts is the preferred QB play for me - but let's keep pushing forward.

#3 Justin Fields

On the other side of that game is Fields, another highly mobile quarterback for $800 less. He has rushed for 178, 147, 85, and 71 yards in his last four games. What Fields can't do nearly as well as Hurts is put up points through the air, as he's exceeded 200 passing yards just once in his last seven games. The Eagles defense is also quite stingy, allowing the fourth-fewest DraftKings points overall and the fewest in the league to quarterbacks. Fields isn't an ordinary quarterback, and he could still get there with one of these 100+ yard rushing games, but it's a much thinner play than Hurts for just $800 less.

#4 Justin Herbert

The Titans have given up the second most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year, having coughed up 25 passing touchdowns in their 13 games. Some QBs and their scores against the Titans this year:

• Trevor Lawrence, week 14: 36.4 points
• Patrick Mahomes, week 9: 37.2 points
• Josh Allen, week 2: 32.7 points
• Jalen Hurts, week 13: 37.4 points
• Carson Wentz, week 5: 24.9 points

So yeah, the main reason they've given up so many points to QBs is probably the clearly difficult schedule they've had, facing all of the big three fantasy QBs this year. However, there have really only been two weeks where a QB has failed against the Titans in terms of fantasy scoring, and Herbert isn't too far off the talent level of the best QBs in the league. He has been at 20 points or more four straight weeks now, so I would say the questions about the ribs are in the rear view mirror.

Herbert is a full $1,000 cheaper than Hurts - so this might be a better play when price is considered.

#5 Dak Prescott

Ostensibly, Dak at $6,200 against the Jaguars is a smash play. However, the price is low for a reason - Prescott now has five straight weeks of being under 21 DraftKings points, and has recently put up really bad scores against some bad offenses (15 points against the Giants, 17 points against the Colts, and 14 points against the Texans).

The (fantasy) disappointments are mostly due to the Cowboys' low pass rate (54% - the third lowest in the league). Dak has also been much more hesitant to run with the ball this year, topping out at 34 rushing yards on the season. It just hasn't been good. However, I still am interested in Dak in tournaments, as Jacksonville has been a bottom-ten defense against QBs and have found themselves in a few back-and-forth shootouts. The Cowboys defense will make it tough for Trevor Lawrence to push Dak into more pass and rush attempts, but it's not out of the realm of possibility either.

I will almost surely fall on one of these five names, and I'm definitely leaning towards Hurts or Herbert right now.

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

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This appears to be a tougher week at the RB position, as really nobody stands out from where things sit here on Tuesday afternoon. Let's hit on some names of interest.

Austin Ekeler - He just keeps functioning as the game's premiere pass catching back. He has 112 targets this year, which is 26 more than the second-highest (Christian McCaffrey). That gives him one of the highest floors in the league. He should be set for 15+ high-value touches here once again. The matchup isn't super relevant for a guy like Ekeler that gets so many easy catch and runs, but we've already mentioned that the Titans have been no stranger to giving up touchdowns, so Ekeler makes for a fine play here - albeit very, very expensive.

Alvin Kamara - Strangely, the workload has been way down for Kamara, touching the ball just 14, 13, 16, 11, and 12 times in his last five games. I think that pretty much scratches him off the card for cash games, but the matchup is strong here and Kamara's ceiling is enormous if he gets the touches back - so he's a nice GPP play.

Josh Jacobs - An absolute ton has been asked of Jacobs, he's carried the ball more than 20 times in each of his last five games and has gone above 25 touches in each of those. The problem here is that the Patriots are probably the league's second-best defense (San Francisco). They have given up just 231 DraftKings points to running backs, which makes Jacobs a tough button to push.

Derrick Henry - I don't have anything to say about Henry that isn't already known by everyone. He has 200 yard, three touchdown upside - and it's a superb matchup with the Chargers, but his floor is lower than you like for $8,000. One thing I might add is that the Charger are giving up a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry, so this certainly sets up amazingly well for Henry. Herbert + Henry is a somewhat appealing combo here, even though that goes against the typical correlation rules.

Rhamondre Stevenson - He left Monday Night Football with an ankle injury, and then briefly returned before being ruled out once again - so we will have to see if he's good to go for next week or not. Any question marks about the health will eliminate him from cash consideration at $7,000 - but if he's good to go, he's in play with his sick 18% target share for New England.

Jerick McKinnon - The Chiefs backfield is more interesting than usual these days, as almost all of the work has been concentrated between McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco. Since Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been out of the picture, McKinnon and Pacheco have combined for 15, 21, 30, and 48 DraftKings points. It's still a pretty thin path to success with how the Chiefs use their backs, but McKinnon does have 18 targets in the last four games with nine last week. The ceiling is high, but the floor is really low.

Rachaad White - Even with Leonard Fournette back and in the picture, White has had a nice role in the Bucs offense even without them really scoring any points. He has scored double-digit DraftKings points in each of his last four games, and has 9, 8, and 5 targets in the last three games. Over these lats four weeks, he has 22, 23, 15, and 18 touches. That is a whole bunch of work for a guy splitting work, and it gives him massive upside if something did happen to Lenny and White took over the reigns. He also gets some red zone usage, so there is still touchdown upside here against the Bengals.

We have to play at least two running backs, and it's not going to be easy to fill those spots this week - so I'm really going to lean towards getting Ekeler or Henry in one of those spots. I don't mind using the other on a cheap, low-floor guy like McKinnon or White and just hoping for the best.

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

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I don't think we can really get to $9,000 on Adams against the Patriots, and it seems a little foolish to pay a season-high price on Amon-Ra St. Brown away from the friendly confines of Ford Field. That leave us with two clear top guys:

Ja'Marr Chase: He's fully back, earning 15 targets and a rush attempt last week on his way to a score of 31.5. Tampa has been tougher on WRs, but Chase is pretty much matchup-proof and he's going to get a ton of looks.

CeeDee Lamb: A great spot for the Cowboys here in a game environment we like. Lamb isn't quite near the elite tier, but neither is his price. He has gone over 20 points just five times this year, but he also has at least six targets in all but two games. His ceiling is great, and the Jaguars have given up the twelfth-most points to wide receivers this year.

The most interesting cheap names:

Elijah Moore: The role has recently shifted in his favor, as he has 16 targets on 92 (!) routes over the last two weeks. He's back in a full-time role, and this guy is very, very talented. He has turned that into just 15.7 points over the last two weeks, but a big splash game might be right around the corner with this great usage.

Kendall Hinton: 5, 3, 9, 1, and 6 targets over his last five weeks. That gives him a floor near zero, but for just $3,900 you can do a whole lot worse.

Michael Gallup: Another floor near zero, but he's averaged seven targets over his last three games

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

It's probably not a week to pay up for Kelce, although there are almost no other options here. Tight end has been pretty brutal all year from a "knowing what to do" perspective. I would say Schults, Freiermuth, and Everett are fine at those prices - but I think it might be another week to go down to Chigoziem Okonkwo against the Chargers for just $3,100. He has 5, 5, and 7 targets in his last three games and scored a touchdown last week, giving him 36 DraftKings points scored in these last three games. Those are good numbers for the price - and we like the Titans/Chargers game a bit.

The "cash pool" I've derived from all of this so far:

QB: Herbert or Hurts

RB: Henry or Ekeler, White

WR: Chase, Elijah Moore

TE: Okonkwo

So that leaves a bunch of spots open, which we'll fill in as we learn more from other people throughout the week. I hope this got you in the mood, good luck this week!

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