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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on October 5th, 2022. Juan Carlos Blanco's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Welcome back to another edition of the FREE DraftKings and FanDuel MLB DFS picks. We've reached the final day of the regular season, and with all postseason spots now in place thanks to the Braves clinching the NL East crown Tuesday night, it's going to be a very interesting day of DFS play since lineups for many contenders could have a lot of reserves in them for either the entire game or the latter portions of them.
The same also holds true for pitchers, with certain big names, such as Clayton Kershaw and now likely Max Fried, confirmed/very likely to log abbreviated outings. Therefore, I've taken a bit of a different approach today and have tried to recommend as many players on non-contending teams as possible, given their high likelihood of being in lineups.
Additionally, the couple of exceptions I have made involve younger players on contenders that have a higher chance of still being on the field Wednesday. However, given how unpredictable the last day of a season can be, I've also included more alternative options than usual underneath the infielders and outfielders in order to offer you a chance to easily pivot if necessary.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 10/5/2022 for the main slate locking at 4:00 pm ET. The lineup will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, find me on Twitter and ask away!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Shohei Ohtani - LAA at OAK ($10,900 DK, $11,200 FD)
Ohtani is one pitcher who we shouldn't have any concerns about Wednesday, given the Angels are wrapping up their season. The MVP candidate should have a good chance of finishing a terrific campaign in a positive fashion while facing the Athletics, which he just dominated for eight shutout innings, two hits, and 10 strikeouts in his most recent start. That's far from Ohtani's only strong outing against Oakland this season, as he owns a 2-1 record, 0.92 ERA, and 22:5 K:BB across 19.2 innings versus the division rivals in three starts.
The success against the A's isn't surprising, not only because of Ohtani's talent but due to Oakland's frequently meager offensive outputs as well. The A's headed into Tuesday's action with a .233 average, .304 wOBA, and -4.9 wRAA against right-handed pitching at home in the second half of the season. Ohtani goes into his final start with at least seven strikeouts in four straight turns, and he's held current A's bats to a collective .141 average and .406 OPS across 69 career encounters.
Johan Oviedo - PIT vs. STL ($5,700 DK, $6,300 FD)
Oviedo makes for one of two very viable value options on Wednesday's tricky pitching slate. Not only could the Cardinals very well be resting plenty of key players, but the promising right-hander actually looked very effective against his former team's normal lineup in his most recent start.
Oviedo fired a six-inning quality start in which he allowed a pair of earned runs at Busch Stadium, certainly no easy feat. He's been very effective at home over a modest sample as well, pitching to a 2-1 record, 3.00 ERA, 9.0 K/9, and 0.4 HR/9 across 21 innings.
Oviedo had also spun a seven-inning shutout of the Cubs in the start prior to the one versus St. Louis, and a five-inning blanking of the Reds two turns before that. The right-hander could therefore deliver handsomely on his very modest salaries, especially if he catches a break and the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are given the afternoon off ahead of the postseason.
Other options: Davis Martin - CWS vs. MIN ($5,800 DK, $7,700 FD)
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jose Abreu - 1B, CWS vs. Louie Varland ($4,400 DK, $3,100 FD) (10/5 Update: With Abreu out of the lineup, consider the Cubs' Willson Contreras ($5,200 DK, $3,100 FD) as a viable alternative for the C/1B spot on FD and the Orioles' Jesus Aguilar, listed in the "Also Consider" section below, as a 1B alternative on DK)
Abreu is an excellent high-upside option at his salary, considering not just the highly productive season he's put together, but the favorable matchup against Varland. Abreu went into Tuesday's action with a .307 average and .814 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Varland has pitched to a .289 BAA and .386 wOBA against the 49 right-handed bats he's faced in his young career.
The righty-swinging Abreu's body of work in same-handed matchups at home includes a .280 average, .763 OPS, and .334 wOBA, along with a 35.4 percent hard-contact rate. The veteran slugger has also been very effective all season in clutch hitting situations with .375 and .357 wOBAs with men on base and men in scoring position, respectively, and he boasts .344 and .349 wOBAs against the four-seam and slider, Varland's two most-often-used pitches by far.
Andres Gimenez - 2B, CLE vs. Jonathan Heasley ($6,200 DK, $3,200 FD)
Gimenez is one of those aforementioned exceptions that I'm making, as the breakout infielder could have a good chance of drawing a start Wednesday and will be drawing a very good matchup for left-handed hitters. The right-handed Heasley has struggled in opposite-handed matchups, pitching to a .373 wOBA and 2.2 HR/9 when facing lefty bats. Meanwhile, Gimenez has been outstanding at home all season, going into Tuesday night with a .292 average, .792 OPS, and .349 wOBA at Progressive Field.
Of the 19 homers Heasley has given up this season, 12 of those have come off left-handed bats, including eight on the road. He also has a middling 5.81 K/9 and 5.47 BB/9 against left-handed hitters when traveling, which opens up even more paths to fantasy production for the versatile Gimenez, who in addition to his 17 homers, also has 26 doubles, three triples, 20 steals, and even a whopping 23 hit-by-pitches, making him an excellent bet to get on and rack up some production in one form or another.
Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Bailey Falter ($4,000 DK, $3,300 FD) (10/5 Update: Pena will be held out Wednesday after fouling a pitch off his knee, consider pivoting Gimenez, who's also SS eligible, to this spot and inserting Jeff McNeil at 2nd base)
We'll continue with our second and final exception in Pena, who's enjoyed a strong rookie campaign that now includes 44 extra-base hits, including 22 homers, after his 2-for-4 night Tuesday. Pena has been especially effective when facing left-handed pitching, producing a .283 average, .793 OPS, and .342 wOBA in that split without even factoring in the aforementioned round-tripper he connected against Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez for Tuesday night.
Falter has certainly enjoyed an impressive rookie campaign overall, but he's been vulnerable in opposite-handed matchups to the tune of a .271 average, .351 wOBA, and 1.8 HR/9. Meanwhile, Pena went into Tuesday's productive night already boasting a .270 average, .755 OPS, and .326 wOBA since Sept. 1st, and he's performed well against Falter's top two pitches, the sinker and four-seam fastball. Pena owns a modest 14.5 percent strikeout rate against the former, and he's pounded the latter offering for a .907 OPS and .393 wOBA.
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 3B, PIT vs. Matthew Liberatore ($3,400 DK, $2,700 FD)
Hayes' .245/.316/.347 season slash line certainly doesn't jump off the page, but the 25-year-old will head into the regular-season finale with a little momentum after mustering his third multi-hit effort in the last eight games Tuesday night. Hayes has also been at his best when facing left-handed pitching, and he'll draw such a matchup Wednesday against a southpaw in Liberatore who has no shortage of talent but who's pitched to a 7.71 ERA and 1.80 WHIP across 11.2 innings over his last four times on a big-league mound.
Hayes went into Tuesday with a .290 average, .807 OPS, .356 wOBA, and 130 wRC+ when facing southpaws at home this season, along with an elevated 38.9 percent hard-contact rate in that split. In contrast, Liberatore had been tormented by right-handed hitters for a .311 average and .418 wOBA overall, including a .357 average and .483 wOBA when facing righty bats on the road. Liberatore has also given up a massive 28.6 percent line-drive rate and 40.0 percent hard-contact rate in the latter split, upping Hayes' chances of getting good wood on the ball.
Other options: Jesus Aguilar - 1B, BAL vs. Casey Lawrence ($2,400 DK, $2,100 FD); Jeff McNeil - 2B, NYM vs. Erick Fedde ($4,200 DK, $2,600 FD); Anthony Rendon - 3B, LAA at Ken Waldichuk ($3,600 DK, $3,000 FD)
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Christopher Morel - CHC at Graham Ashcraft ($4,000 DK, $2,900 FD)
Morel gets a matchup against a right-hander who he's enjoyed some success in previously, putting him firmly in play at his salaries. The young outfielder has been at his most effective in same-handed matchups, including on the road, where he's generated a .330 wOBA, .228 ISO, and .762 OPS in that split thanks largely to the fact he's laced 16 of his 28 hits in the sample for extra bases.
Ashcraft has been hit hard by right-handed bats all season, including in his hitter-friendly home park, where he's surrendered a .337 average, .406 wOBA, 2.0 HR/9, and 5.20 FIP in that split. He's also given up a 19.2 percent HR/FB rate to right-handed hitters at Great American Ballpark, while Morel notably boasts a 23.6 percent HR/FB rate versus righty arms this season and already has a pair of singles and a double in his first three career plate appearances versus Ashcraft.
Edward Olivares - KCR at Aaron Civale ($4,000 DK, $2,500 FD)
Olivares is another intriguing value play who could send his impressive season off on a high note Wednesday, considering he's facing a pitcher who's been vulnerable all season in Civale. The 26-year-old has put together his best stint in the majors yet this season, generating a .287 average and .749 OPS overall across 170 plate appearances. The outfielder has also shown impressive plate discipline with a 19.8 percent strikeout rate and has also generated an impressively elevated 24.6 percent line-drive rate, leading to his frequent success.
Olivares has a .296 average and .703 OPS versus right-handed pitching, and he's posted a 28.6 percent line-drive rate versus righties on the road. Civale has been better in the latter portion of the season, but he's still allowed a 1.4 HR/9 at home and Olivares owns respective .333 and .286 averages against Civale's top two pitches, the cutter and curveball.
Jake Fraley - CIN vs. Adrian Sampson ($4,700 DK, $2,800 FD)
Fraley has put produced what may be his best stretch of hitting at the big-league level yet at the tail end of the season, as he'd produced a .324 average and .861 OPS over his previous 11 games going into Tuesday before putting together a 1-for-3 night that also included a walk in the Reds' 3-2 win. The slugging outfielder had ripped 21 of his 53 hits for extra bases across his 238 plate appearances as well going into Tuesday, and he therefore makes for a viable and reasonably salaried lefty bat to deploy versus Sampson.
Fraley comes in already carrying a .750 average with a double, a homer, and only one strikeout in eight prior encounters against Sampson, and he's squared up on righties at Great American Ballpark for a .308 average, .949 OPS, and .403 wOBA this season, along with a 22.7 percent HR/FB rate that dovetails nicely with the elevated 39.2 percent flyball rate Sampson gives up to lefty batters on the road. Fraley also went into Tuesday with a .303 average, .928 OPS, and .396 wOBA across 92 plate appearances with men on base, furthering his case for a strong finish to the season.
Other options: Seiya Suzuki - CHC at Graham Ashcraft ($5,600 DK, $2,700 FD); Michael Harris II - ATL at Elieser Hernandez ($5,100 DK, $3,900 FD); Taylor Ward, LAA at Ken Waldichuk ($4,600 DK, $3,700 FD)
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
- Cubs at Graham Ashcraft, CIN, RHP
- Angels at Ken Waldichuk, OAK, LHP
- Orioles vs. Casey Lawrence, TOR, RHP
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