November 16, 2017

Milos Zvekic's buy low, sell high trade advice for Week 5 of fantasy NBA. His buy/hold/sell recommendations for Tyreke Evans and DeMar DeRozan in fantasy basketball leagues.

Almost a month of NBA basketball has passed and we still can't get used to all the changes that have reshaped the leagues since last year. Russell Westbrook has received some all-star help in Oklahoma, but they are still struggling, even though they have won their last two. Boston keeps winning despite Gordon Hayward's season being over and Kyrie Irving suffering an elbow to his face which kept him out of almost two whole games. They're at the Top of the league at the moment riding a 12 game winning streak after losing their first two. And Cleveland is still sitting outside of the playoffs.

With all that happening, I can't seem to shake off the feeling that a lot is still going to change during this season. I'm not talking about trades, it's getting so hectic this past 10 months or so that I'm not even going to try and predict those. I'm talking about team and, what we fantasy addicts are here for, individual player performances.

Let's take a look at who has been golden for his owners but runs the risk of dropping off and who is expected to do much better the rest of the way in our Week 5 fantasy basketball buy low and sell high column right here at RotoBaller.

Buy Low, Sell High Advice for Week 5

Are You for Real, Tyreke Evans?

So, Tyreke Evans is a top-50 fantasy player this year. Tyreke Evans is averaging 17.8 PTS with 1.9 3PM on 50.6 FG% and 84.6 FT%, 4.8 REB, 3.1 AST, 1.2 STL, 0.1 BLK and 1.8 TO in 27 minutes a game. Tyreke Evans hasn't missed any games so far this year. Tyreke Evans is doing all this while playing on a Memphis Grizzlies team which ranks second to last in pace on the season.

The counting stats look a lot like Tyreke from his best days. He even had 6.6 assists per game in his most selfless season three years ago. He is not going to repeat that though. The efficiency is off the charts and that is extremely uncharacteristic of Evans. He is a career 44.5% shooter, hits 75.8% of his free throws and turns the ball over 2.6 times. Expect his season averages to drop sooner rather than later.

But most of all I have doubts about his durability. He's had some serious troubles with his joints, especially his ankles and knees, including knee surgery and other procedures. Tyreke has played just 40 games last year and only 25  the year before. In fact, he missed less than 10 games in a season just once in his career.

If you own Evans you should be delighted by the value he has provided for your team so far, but don't get too attached. It's highly doubtful he is going to keep this level up, and moreover his injury history should be a factor in your decision whether to make a move or stick with him.

Should you find an owner who is willing to disregard the risks involved with owning Tyreke, don't hesitate too much to swap him for the likes of Serge Ibaka, Taurean Prince or even struggling Marcin Gortat as he has a better chance to turn it around than Tyreke has of keeping this up.

Baller Move: Sell high

Time to Panic on DeMar DeRozan?

DeMar DeRozan is pretty much on par with his career averages on the season. But that's not what his owners were hoping for as his as he had smashed his career averages in almost all fantasy relevant categories last year. Furthermore, DeMar is not at his best in the previous two weeks with averages of 25.6 points with 1.1 threes on 44.0% from the field and 86.9% from the charity stripe, 3.3 boards, 3.9 dimes, 0.1 steals, 0.1 blocks and 3.0 turnovers in 35 minutes a game.

The scoring is still there, and those threes are not something we are used to from him. Percentages and assists are also fine. But what happened to his rebounding, defensive effort and concentration on offense? DeRozan went on a six game streak with absolutely no blocks or steals from Oct 30. He blocked one shot and managed one steal in his previous two games though so that's where the 0.1 per game in that period comes from. Now to be fair, DeRozan was never a good shot blocker, but he did average over a steal per game in his previous five seasons. And having three or more turnovers per game is very unlike DeMar, as his career average is just 2.0 and in his worst season it was 2.4.

Expect DeRozan to turn it around in the following weeks, as he is in his prime and with the slow decline of Kyle Lowry, he is expected to take on even more responsibility. And with the addition of a three-pointer shot, he could be in line for another strong year and a top-30 fantasy finish.

If DeRozan's owner in your league is running out of patience with him don't be reluctant to float him an offer of a guy at around top-50 value. Depending on your league's scoring and team build I would be willing to give up Darren Collison, Patrick Beverley or Tobias Harris to obtain the services of Double D.

Baller Move: Hold or buy low

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