Is Andrew Luck an Elite Fantasy QB Again?

October 11, 2018

Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck has been a strong fantasy football play in the first part of the 2018 NFL season. Dom Petrillo looks deeper to determine whether Luck will continue to be an elite fantasy quarterback or see regression in his passing stats.

It is obvious to see. Andrew Luck does not have his entire arm strength back since his 18-month absence from the NFL. It was on display Week 3 against the Eagles when he was removed from the game on a last-second Hail Mary attempt.

Then in Weeks 4 and 5, we see him throw the ball 121 times over the course of just five days and look like his old self. So, what are we really to believe? Is he compromised in his arm talent or is he getting back to health and it is just slow-going?

This is not going to be answered probably for quite a long time. But there are a few things we do know for sure that might factor into our decision about Andrew Luck's fantasy value going forward.

Is Capt. Luck Back?

First, the running game. Wait, what running game? The Colts have had a suspension to Robert Turbin, prolonged injury to Marlon Mack and lack of expected rookie influx in the rushing game by Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines, who have been unable to run the ball effectively in any game this season. At 74.0 rushing yards per game, the Colts are currently ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing. This has directly led Andrew Luck being required to throw a ton. And throw it he has. In the first five games of the season, he is number one in completions with 163, first in attempts with 245, third in touchdown passes with 12 and is throwing for an average of 283 yards per game. While these numbers are great for your fantasy teams and we love to see it, if they do develop a running game of any sort these numbers could regress,  especially against teams with solid secondaries like Jacksonville. Luck looks elite right now, but could lead you to disappointment in crucial times of the season, like when trying to secure a playoff berth in your fantasy leagues.

Saying this, it looks like the run game is not going to get a handle on things, so the Colts may have to deploy the New England approach and use the short pass out of the backfield to keep Nyheim Hines involved. This has been working the past few weeks and should continue going forward. Luck could be in store to continue leading the league in pass attempts and completions, making for big fantasy production.

The second factor which helps Andrew Luck be viewed as a possible elite quarterback for the remainder of the season is the defense in Indianapolis. While the defense has been playing better than expected in 2018, it can be said that they are playing over their heads and will soon come down to Earth. The points are still there for opposing teams as the Colts give up an average of 27.6 points per game on the defensive side of the ball and Luck is still having to throw to keep up. When the defense finally does come crashing down there will be a need for the offense to pick it up even more and propel Luck to new heights. Currently ranked 27th in the league in points allowed and 23rd in the league in yards allowed per game, the Colts defense will struggle to even meet these meager numbers by the end of the season.

Combine these facts with the Colts upcoming schedule and the future seems bright for Luck to have an elite season, at least in terms of final numbers. With games upcoming against the Jets, Bills, and Raiders, Luck will continue to flourish this season and we have two main things to thank for his sudden resurgence. His defense and his running game, or lack thereof. If someone in your league panicked and dropped him to waivers or if you can get him in a trade, Luck would make a great trade target to help get you to the playoffs. With playoff matchups against the Texans, Giants, and Redskins, his matchups down the stretch are nothing to be afraid of either so go get him and feel set at quarterback with the return of a top-tier fantasy QB.

More NFL Analysis