February 29, 2016

Staff rankings and projections for 2016 fantasy baseball relief pitchers (RP) - closers, saves and holds. Tiered MLB relief pitcher ranks and expert fantasy baseball advice.

Relief pitcher is possibly the toughest position to evaluate for your fantasy draft. There are only a handful who maintain a closer role for more than a couple of years, and the rest of the league is a carousel of mediocrity. Additionally, saves are such arbitrary statistics, since a closer has no control over whether or not his team will be leading by three or fewer runs heading into the ninth. Lastly, since relief pitchers only toss 60 or so innings a year, so 30 points on an ERA is really just a question of two or three runs. After the elite few, who tend to strike batters out at an unreal clip, there's a lot of parity among those who actually remain their team's closer all season.

Closers are valuable -- even in the fifth tier -- it's just necessary to note that only a handful come without any concerns on draft day. With that being said, this column in a look at how we at RotoBaller ranked the relief pitchers for 2016.

Editor's Note: Make sure you head over to our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. We have released our new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats and more! It's all in one place, and all free. 

Closers, Saves and Holds: 2016 Rankings Analysis

Tier One

Wade Davis, Kenley Janson, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman are pretty far above any other relief pitcher. They were the only pitchers to receive a ranking inside the top four, and each reliever made an appearance at No. 1, 2, 3 and 4. Davis topped the list, but you can make an argument for each of them, and you really cannot go wrong with any of these guys on draft day. It really just comes down to personal preference. Of course, Chapman's ranking will plummet if he is suspended.

Tier Two

With the exception of Jeff and Bill, who have Mark Melancon at No. 12, everyone ranked Zach Britton, Ken Giles, Jeurys Familia, Trevor Rosenthal, David Robertson, Cody Allen and Melancon somewhere between No. 5 and No. 11. Aside from Giles and Familia, are all veteran closers, and while they do not possess the same combination of strikeouts and run prevention seen in the first tier, each one is the total package.

Tier Three

Here we have a group of guys who, for the most part, have a stranglehold on their respective team's closer role, but still come with some questions-- at least from a fantasy standpoint. Glen Perkins racked up over 30 saves in each of the last three years, but has seen his strikeout percentage, batting average against and fielding independent pitching all drop over that span. Brad Boxberger had a strong 2015 campaign in his first year as the Rays' closer, but is prone to the occasional blow up (he allowed at least three runs in three different outings). Huston Street also saw a significant drop in his peripherals last year, most notably with his strikeout-to-walk ratio (14.4%, down from 18.8%), and at age 32, may have started on the back end of his career. Of the 30 projected closers for 2016, Hector Rondon finished 18th in strikeouts per nine innings. Francisco Rodriguez will have an extended stay in the more hitter-friendly American League for the first time since 2008. Jonathon Papelbon's time in Washington in 2015 yielded some of the worst stats of his career-- 3.04 ERA, 4.00 K/BB, 14.8 HR/FB and 35.5% Hard%.

A.J. Ramos is the closer in this tier most likely to lose his job at some point this year. Andrew Miller also lands in this range, despite not being expected to collect many saves for the Yankees, given his propensity for striking batters out-- his 40.7% strikeout rate was second in baseball among relief pitchers.

Tier Four

Tier four is headlined by two relievers with dominant stuff but who don't have closer roles right now. Carter Capps is tentatively slotted behind Ramos on the Marlins' depth chart, but there is belief that that could change sooner rather than later. Capps managed a 1.16 ERA with 58 strikeouts in just 31.1 innings. Granted, this is a small sample size, he has an absolutely filthy repertoire that includes a fastball and a knuckle-curve and a track record of dominance in the minors. Dellin Betances, on the other hand, is quite far away from obtaining closer duties, despite having posted the second best ERA (1.50) among all relievers with at least 50 innings pitched in 2015, behind just Davis. Chapman will hold down the ninth inning for the Yankees, with Miller in line behind him. Still, Betances should continue to strike out well over 100 batters while maintaining an ERA below 2.00.

Also appearing in tier four are Roberto Osuna and Shawn Tolleson, both of whom had successful first years as their team's closer, Jake McGee, who has been given a new opportunity in Colorado, Santiago Casilla, who has posted an ERA under 3.00 for six consecutive years, and Drew Storen, who lost his closer role late in 2015 and is expected to begin 2016 setting up Osuna in Toronto.

Tier Five

The bottom of the barrel for ninth-inning guys. Each player in this group is either his team's closer or battling for the job, but none of them are very trustworthy options for fantasy.

Sean Doolittle battled several injuries last year, Brad Ziegler is a 36-year-old with limited experience in the ninth inning and a low strikeout rate, and Steve Cishek was so bad to begin 2015 that the Marlins removed him as their closer and later shipped him off to St. Louis. David Hernandez, Will Smith and J.J. Hoover are first-time closers with potential, but are bound to run into speed bumps. Veteran Jason Grilli and young flame-thrower Arodys Vizcaino are in competition for the Braves' closer role, and the pitcher who earns the job will rise in these rankings, while the other will inevitably become less valuable.

Tier Six

The top remaining middle relievers can be found here. All of them have the potential to close in the event of an injury, but you're not drafting any of them to be a closer. In a league deep enough to roster relievers, any of these guys will be appealing. Carson Smith and Hunter Strickland are two younger arms with incredible upside who could both easily be closers down the road.

Tier Seven/Tier Eight

I grouped these two tiers together because both are made up of solid middle relievers. You're probably not drafting these guys unless you are in an AL- or NL-Only league, a deep mixed league or one that uses holds as a category. Some of these players could take over the closer role at some point -- namely Jumbo Diaz, Jeremy Jeffress and Kevin Quackenbush -- but otherwise, they don't toss enough innings to make a large impact in ERA, WHIP or strikeouts.

Relief Pitcher Tiered Rankings: Closers, Saves, Holds (February)

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]