February 23, 2016

Part one of our staff rankings and projections for 2016 fantasy baseball outfielders (OF). Tiered MLB outfielder ranks, expert draft analysis and fantasy baseball advice.

Pitchers and catchers think they’re so cool just because they report first and get everyone all hot and bothered. Well we haven’t forsaken the other positions, and I’m here to take you on a nice leisurely tour through our outfield ranks.

Our highly esteemed rankings panel includes fine gentlemen such as Brad Johnson, Max Petrie, Kyle Bishop, Harris Yudin, Jeff Kahntroff, Bill Dubiel, and myself (okay, so six-sevenths of esteem). We've all provided our individual rankings below, created tiers, and came out with a staff consensus rank.

Editor's note: Since this column obviously won't be enough for you, be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Everything you need, in one easy place - tiered staff rankings for all positions, top MLB prospects, dynasty/keeper rankings, and lots more.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Outfield (Part One)

Tier One

There’s no other way to cut it, you’re going to be thrilled to land either Mike Trout or Bryce Harper heading into 2016. Trout is still #1 for five of us, but Harris and Bill have Harper first on their boards. I can respect that, though I personally want Trout’s floor as tied to his durability.

I know, the August wrist injury last year really crippled his year-end statline, stupid Trout only hitting 41 dingers. Bryce muscled out 42 while hitting .330 and just looking supremely dominant, walking almost as much as he struck out! That’s 124 walks to 131 strikeouts for you number-lovers. You won’t go wrong here.

Tier Two

This houses the best outfield bats for the rest of us mere mortals who don’t score top three overall picks or pony up $$$ in auctions. Giancarlo Stanton could be a top tier player if his body could keep up with his strength, though I won’t hold the whole getting hit in the face with a pitch against him. When he’s on the field he swings the strongest bat in all of baseball, hitting laser shots like he’s playing tee ball. Andrew McCutchen got off to a very slow start, and the steals dipped, but he should still be considered a safe pick in the first round. He won’t vault you to glory, but he should give you an amazing foundation to work with.

You’ll also find three young guns here in George Springer, Mookie Betts, and A.J. Pollock. All three are in healthy offensive environments, with Springer and Betts in two of the strongest lineups in baseball. None of these guys are going to be regular first rounders in most drafts, but I wouldn’t be surprised if you told me they ended 2016 with top-12 numbers.

Tier Three

There's plenty of upside, but you can see the fleas with most of the players here. I believe J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton are both a notch above the rest in here (as reflected in the numbers), but Tier 2.5 doesn’t really gel. Martinez and Upton join forces in a Detroit Tigers lineup that also has some guy named Miguel Cabrera and the 1-6 of this squad is quite formidable. Both should have great years, as Martinez's swing is clearly legitimate and Upton, while streaky, will put together enough heat waves to be a force. Nelson Cruz won’t be a .300 hitter again, that .350 BABIP was way off the usual .295 BABIP we’re used to seeing from him. The power is real though, he should contribute at least 35 home runs if health permits.

Carlos Gomez is another intriguing name, as you can see some of us really believe in him and others are cooler on him. I think he’s a solid dice-roll, but I’m usually not keen on rolling dice that early. I don’t see the average going back up to the .280 range, but the power and speed has a good shot at coming back. If he returns to 20-30 form with the counting stats that come with playing in a very strong Astros lineup, then you’re going to be raking in Scrooge McDuckian profits.

Tier Four

It's a big one, housing 17 players with the polarizing Yasiel Puig as the headliner. There’s no doubting that Puig struggled last year, it’s just a matter of how far you see him bouncing back in 2016. He walked less, struck out more, and made worse contact in his third major league season. Injuries to both of his hamstrings didn’t help his cause for any consistency during the season, but at the same time he was clearly off at the dish. Can he rekindle that plate discipline? Maybe he just needs Don Mattingly out of his life (sorry, Donnie).

There are some buzzy younger players here in Christian Yelich, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Adam Eaton, and Billy Hamilton. Yelich really turned it on after his back injury subsided, just don’t count on that power stroke coming around. Meanwhile first half Joc had DirecTV, while second half Joc may not have even had a television. Sustaining that wild first half production would have required Monstars-level voodoo, but he isn’t nearly as bad as that second half was either.

He has power and should be good for 25 homers, and while his average won’t help anyone, if you play in OBP leagues he is a much sturdier option. Soler might get buried while the hype surrounds his teammates, but let that be your gain. The power is very real and he’s just turning 24, if he simply approaches being average at hitting pitches that aren’t fastballs then he could skyrocket.

Adam Eaton had a horrible April, and while he got on track afterwards, the White Sox offense in general sputtered for much of the year. He still managed 98 runs and grew into a power stroke (14 bombs) to complement his modest speed (18 swipes) alongside the healthy average (.287). Perhaps the power isn't totally sustainable, but seems to be a solid five-cat player who could still have some growth in him. Billy Hamilton...what can I say about B-Ham? I don’t hide that I hate him (Kyle just had to one-up me with his 53^rd ranking to my 52^nd) [Looooove youuuuuu...hate the Hamburglar. -Ed.] I see the appeal, I really do, as he’s electric on the basepaths. In just 450 plate appearances he stole 57 bases and was only caught eight times! I just can’t get with how much of a suck he is on the other categories, but if he commits to a level approach at the plate and tries to put the ball on the ground more, playing to his elite speed strength, then I could be eating crow all year.

Outfield Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (February)

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