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Every year, free agency sends shockwaves through the fantasy football community. During the offseason, these moves tend to be magnified because there are so few things for fantasy managers to be focused on. Every once in a while, a free agency move can send a player's value skyrocketing. Sometimes these moves are due to an indirect move.
The important thing for fantasy managers when evaluating these free agency moves is to stay grounded. It's always easy to get excited about a player who finally appears to be in a better environment, but at the end of the day, players are who they are. Their environment, however promising, is unlikely to significantly alter someone's output.
In this article, we'll be looking at wide receivers who have seen their fantasy football value increase since their offseason change in location. Just because their values have increased and improved, it doesn't mean they'll all of a sudden become fantasy-relevant players, but their chances have certainly gotten better.
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Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams
There may be no player who has improved his surroundings more than Allen Robinson. For the duration of his eight-year career, the former Penn State standout has had to endure catching passes from Blake Bortles to Mitchell Trubisky to Nick Foles. It's been ugly – maybe worse than that.
Allen Robinson’s quarterbacks since college:
- Matt McGloin
- Christian Hackenburg
- Blake Bortles
- Mitchell Trubisky
- Nick Foles
- Justin Fields
- Andy DaltonAnd now… Matthew Stafford 😁 pic.twitter.com/Wmb7rDwl4U
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) March 17, 2022
Despite this atrocious list of quarterbacks, Robinson has three top-12 receiver finishes in three out of six seasons, excluding his rookie season and the year he tore his ACL. In two of the other years he did not finish as a top-12 receiver, he missed three and four games. He has proven to be an incredibly talented receiver and how he's in the best situation of his career. Just how much of an upgrade are the Rams and Stafford?
| Team | Points Scored | Points Scored Rank | Passing Yards | Passing Yards Rank | Passing TDs | Passing TDs Rank |
| 2014 Jaguars | 249 | 32nd | 3,001 | 31st | 15 | 31st |
| 2015 Jaguars | 376 | 14th | 4,108 | 10th | 35 | 3rd |
| 2016 Jaguars | 318 | 25th | 3,728 | 20th | 24 | 16th |
| 2017 Jaguars | Torn ACL - Missed Entire Season | |||||
| 2018 Bears | 421 | 9th | 3,564 | 21st | 28 | 14th |
| 2019 Bears | 280 | 29th | 3,291 | 25th | 20 | 25th |
| 2020 Bears | 372 | 22nd | 3,655 | 22nd | 26 | 18th |
| 2021 Bears | 311 | 27th | 3,207 | 30th | 16 | 29th |
Check out these points scored statistics during the course of Robinson's career. Los Angeles scored 640 points last season, which ranked seventh. They also ranked fifth in passing yards with 4,642 and second in passing touchdowns with 41. The Rams' offense will not only be the very best offense he's ever played on, but Sean McVay will be the most innovative offensive coach he's played under, and Matthew Stafford will be undeniably the best quarterback he's ever caught passes from. His situation for the first eight years of his career is reminiscent of Dr. David Banner. His new situation is The Hulk.
He will turn 29-years-old this year and is fresh off a 2021 campaign where his efficiency fell off a cliff. There's some risk in that fact, but fantasy managers don't seem too concerned about that fact. Right now, he has an ADP of WR22 on Underdog. Last year, as the No. 2 receiver for the Rams, Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. played all 17 games. Together, they combined for 188.7 half-PPR points, which would've ranked as the WR20.
Russell Gage, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year, Russell Gage played with Matt Ryan who threw for under 4,000 yards and just 20 touchdown passes. The Falcons' offense ranked 26th in points scored, 16th in passing yards, and 25th in passing touchdowns. Tom Brady, on the other hand, threw for over 5,000 yards and 43 touchdowns. Tampa's offense ranked second in points scored, first in passing yards, and first in passing touchdowns. His 2021 quarterback compared to his 2022 quarterback could not be any different. His 2021 offense and his 2022 offense could not be any different.
While his overall stat line from 2021 won't blow anyone away, it's important to remember that he was injured for the first six weeks of the season. That was also when Calvin Ridley was still an active member of the Falcons. However, from Weeks 7-18, he was the WR18 and averaged 11.3 half-PPR points. In five out of his remaining 11 games, he had 14.7 points or more. He was a WR1 in four of those 11 games and a WR2 in two of them.
- Russell Gage averaged 55 YPG (935 pace)
- 1.96 yard per route run. That was 12th among all WRs w/at least 80 targets.
- Chris Godwin suffered a late season ACL tear.If Godwin isn't ready to start the season, Gage is a solid WR2/3 for as long Godwin is out.
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) May 7, 2022
His target rate of 22% last year and a target rate of 26.4% shows that he might be in line for a healthy number of targets. The Buccaneers averaged 39 pass attempts in 2020 and 43 last season. If they average 40 attempts over 17 games, they'd have 680 attempts. With a 22% target share, he'd have 150 targets. In 2020, his target share playing behind Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley was 18.6%. If he had that kind of target in 2022 on a team with 680 attempts, he'd have 126 targets. And now those targets aren't coming from Matt Ryan, but the greatest quarterback of all time.
His current ADP on Underdog is WR41 right now. Last year, during the first six weeks of the season, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin averaged 24 targets per game and that was with Rob Gronkowski on the roster. With the extremely high volume in Tampa, Gage could very well be WR41 with Godwin on the field, but with the fact Godwin could miss the first 4–5 weeks of the season and return WR3 with WR2 upside, fantasy managers are sleeping on Gage just a bit too much.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
It may be hard to see Kirk as an offseason winner, especially if we eliminate the monetary gains he made, but he really has increased his fantasy value. On a team with DeAndre Hopkins and Zach Ertz, it was going to be difficult for Kirk to obtain the kind of target total he needed to be a player fantasy managers would want to put in their starting lineup.
While the Jaguars' offense and Trevor Lawrence are a downgrade from the Cardinals' offense and Kyler Murray, Kirk now profiles as the clear-cut No. 1 target in Jacksonville and that has a lot of value. There's also a good possibility Trevor Lawrence takes a big step forward in Year Two. While there's no denying his terrible rookie season, NFL Draft Analysts and just about well... everybody rarely gets can't miss prospects so wrong. That's what Lawrence was defined as and after one season, especially a season under the clown show of Urban Meyer, fantasy managers shouldn't be so quick to write off Lawrence.
The newly hired Doug Pederson also worked wonders on Carson Wentz and managed to win a Super Bowl with Nick Foles as his starting quarterback. During Pederson's time in Philadelphia, his only stint as a head coach, the Eagles were incredibly pass-happy – they never ranked any lower than 13th in pass attempts. 2016 was Wentz's rookie season and 2020 was the year he completely forgot how to play football. If we look strictly at 2017–2019, fantasy managers will see that the Eagles were top-13 in passing yards and top-12 in passing touchdowns in all three years.
| Team | Points Scored Rank | Pass Attempts Rank | Passing Yards Rank | Passing TDs Rank |
| 2016 Eagles | 16th | 6th | 24th | 28th |
| 2017 Eagles | 3rd | 13th | 13th | 1st |
| 2018 Eagles | 18th | 7th | 7th | 11th |
| 2019 Eagles | 12th | 8th | 11th | 12th |
| 2020 Eagles | 26th | 10th | 28th | 24th |
During the first three seasons of Kirk's career, he was stuck playing on the outside because future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald was manning the slot. However, in Year Four with Fitzgerald finally retired, Kirk got to play where he was always best suited – the slot. Last year, he had the 13th-most slot snaps and in Jacksonville, that's the same position he should man.
Christian Kirk...
- Averaged 7.6 targets per game w/o Hopkins
- Pace of 130 targets
- Based on his catch % from '21, that's 96 catches
- Based on his career YPR, he'd have 1,171 yards
- Kirk should smash his Underdog ADP of WR46 in any PPR league. Huge value in Jacksonville.— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) May 8, 2022
There's a real chance Kirk challenges for 100 receptions. In either case, in any kind of PPR scoring leagues, fantasy managers should take notice. Right now, fantasy managers can draft him later than WR40. It's incredibly rare for fantasy managers to be able to draft a team's WR1 that late in drafts.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
JuJu Smith-Schuster was courted by the Chiefs in 2020 before choosing to return to the Pittsburgh Steelers. There's no denying that Smith-Schuster has struggled the past three seasons. However, context paints a bit of a different picture.
Last year, JuJu missed 12 games. He finished with 97 receptions, 831 yards, and nine touchdowns in 2020. It's not a very appealing stat line outside of the PPR component, he still finished as a top-24 WR. In 2020, he was forced to catch passes from Ben Roethlisberger who hadn't been able to throw a football further than 15 yards. In 2019, Big Ben missed practically the entire season and he was forced to catch passes from Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges. They started 14 games and didn't pass for 3,000 yards.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, PPR/G:
2017: 13.7 (WR17)
2018: 18.6 (WR9)
2019: 9.4 (WR57)*
2020: 14.6 (WR22)
2021: 7.0 (WR71)*** = Rudolph/Hodges at QB, dealt with concussion, knee sprain
** = played only 5 games, suffered season-ending shoulder injury
Chance at a bounce back in KC.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) June 13, 2022
Context is always important. One thing fantasy managers often hear is just how "sticky" target share is. It's something that frequently carries over year to year. It's predictable. Well, Smith-Schuster has yearly been around a 20% target share player.
Excluding his rookie season, JuJu Smith-Schuster has target shares of 24.5%, 18.3% & 19.6% from 2018-2020.
Giving him a 20% TS results in 135 targets based on KC’s pass attempts in 2021.
You’re talking about 90-95 catches & you can get him as your WR3 right now. Steal.
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 6, 2022
Now that we've covered just who Smith-Schuster is and given reason to somewhat explain his past three seasons, we need to focus on the upgraded environment he now finds himself in. The switch from Big Ben to Patrick Mahomes could not be a bigger upgrade.
The stats above are from last year when most would say that Patrick Mahomes had a "down" season and he still absolutely demolished Roethlisberger in every statistic. Every single statistic. Most notably, yards per attempt and air yards per attempt. It's possible fantasy managers see Smith-Schuster's average depth of target and yard per reception rise.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has NEVER not been a top-24 in any season of his career where he's played 13 or more games. Not once.
- Instead of catching passes from lame-duck Big Ben, he has Patrick Mahomes. 📈
- Should have 120 targets & you can get him as your WR3.
- Easy buy.— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 7, 2022
Jamison Crowder, Buffalo Bills
It's easy for fantasy managers to forget about Jamison Crowder. After all, he spent the last couple of seasons with the New York Jets, but he now finds himself in Buffalo catching footballs from an MVP candidate, Josh Allen. In five of his seven seasons, he's averaged enough targets per game where he either did or would have finished with 100 targets or more.
Cole Beasley finished WR29 and WR38 on a per-game basis in 2020 and 2021 (in games he played at least 40% of the snaps)
Beasley TPRR:
2020 - 24%
2021 - 26%Jamison Crowder’s 2022 ADP is WR70
If you’re in a PPR league, that’s the big-time value you should be most interested in
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) June 7, 2022
Crowder himself finished as the overall WR34 in 2019, WR40 in 2017, and WR30 in 2016 in half-PPR scoring. In terms of PPG, he was the WR25 in 2020. He's never provided any sort of high-end ceiling or even much of a WR2 ceiling, but in PPR leagues, Crowder has been a WR3-type player in the past. That was despite playing in suboptimal conditions and now, he's moved onto arguably one of the best situations in all of football.
| Team | Points Scored Rank | Passing Yards Rank | Passing TDs Rank |
|
2015 Washington |
10th | 11th | 13th |
| 2016 Washington | 12th | 2nd | 14th |
| 2017 Washington | 16th | 12th | 9th |
| 2018 Washington | 29th | 28th | 28th |
| 2019 Jets | 31st | 29th | 27th |
| 2020 Jets | 32nd | 31st | 28th |
| 2021 Jets | 28th | 20th | 25th |
| 2020 Bills | 2nd | 3rd | 3rd |
| 2021 Bills | 3rd | 9th | 7th |
While I don't consider it likely with Gabriel Davis appearing to be on the verge of a Year Three breakout of sorts, it's within the realm of possibility that Crowder is actually the No. 2 target earner for the Bills in 2022. While that may not be the most realistic outcome, it's not one to be completely ignored. Right now, Crowder's ADP is saying that is impossible – that's a mistake. Crowder has the ability to provide fantasy managers with what Beasley has done the past couple of years and that's worth the investment at Crowder's current price point.
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