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Dan Stephens looks at two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani's 2023 fantasy baseball season and predicts how he will do in 2024 for fantasy baseball.
Shohei Ohtani delivered another phenomenal season in 2023, demonstrating his mastery of the game both at the plate and on the mound. His efforts were rewarded with his selection as the American League Most Valuable Player, the second of his career. Ohtani again received all 30 first-place votes for the award making him the first player to be selected as a league MVP by unanimous vote more than once.
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Naturally, Ohtani’s value in the fantasy baseball world was also immense. The only disappointment the superstar provided was an early exit brought on by late-season injuries that ended his campaign with 25 games left on the Angels’ schedule. Still, his insane production up to the premature departure gave many managers a tremendous advantage leading into the last month of the season.
In fantasy baseball, Ohtani is treated as two separate players: Ohtani the hitter, and Ohtani the pitcher. As such, his season review will be broken down into two parts to analyze both sides of his game before taking a look ahead to 2024.
An Unstoppable Force
The first step in assessing any player’s fantasy season is usually a look at his final stat line, and Ohtani’s is a beauty:
2023: .304/.412/.654, 102 R, 44 HR, 95 RBI, 20 SB
Ohtani delivered across the board in 2023. To put things in perspective among his peers, his OBP and home run total led the American League and his slugging percentage was the best in all of Major League Baseball. Ohtani also finished at the top of the AL leaderboard in total bases with 325, despite playing 27 fewer games than runner-up Marcus Semien (320). A career .267 hitter entering 2023, Ohtani finished above the .300 mark for the first time and his other averages also represented new personal bests.
As incredible as his final line was, fantasy managers were grateful for Ohtani’s consistency throughout the season. He started 2023 with a 13-game on-base streak and had a season-long streak of 22 games. The 0-fers that bookended that streak were single games that were themselves immediately preceded or followed by streaks lasting seven and nine games, respectively. The longest he went without a hit was three games, which occurred twice in July and over those six games, he still drew nine walks and scored four runs.
On top of the impressive collection of stats that padded traditional fantasy categories, Ohtani managed to also deliver career bests in his strikeout and walk rates. His strikeout rate came down for the second year in a row to 23.9%, and his BB% of 15.2% beat his previous high of 15% from his previous MVP season in 2021. Ohtani maintained, and in many cases improved, his already elite rankings in most Statcast advanced metric categories, offering further evidence that he is one of the game’s premier hitters.
Dominance On The Mound
Ohtani’s offensive numbers are only half of what makes him such a coveted asset in fantasy baseball. As a starting pitcher, Ohtani put together another impressive season:
2023: 132.0 IP, 10 W, 167 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Ohtani came out of the gate hot, perhaps already warmed up by his stunning performance in the World Baseball Classic. He allowed just two earned runs in his first five starts and in the first month of the season he held opponents to a .102 batting average while recording 46 strikeouts. On the season, the righty recorded double-digit strikeouts in six of his starts (tied for third-most in MLB).
Fatigue may have been to blame for a mid-summer swoon. In July, Ohtani experienced a stretch of three consecutive starts (totaling 16.1 IP) where he allowed at least four earned runs, inflating his season ERA to a high of 3.71. Even though managers took a hit to the ERA column, they still collected another 29 strikeouts by the end of the month. After that dip, Ohtani rebounded and allowed just one unearned run in his final four starts (20.1 IP) before a torn UCL forced him out of the rotation on August 23.
Had he not gone down early, Ohtani may have had a case for the American League Cy Young Award. As it was he did not garner a single vote in a year with plenty of other strong contenders. Ohtani’s walk rate of 10.4% was his highest since his rookie season but a career-best .183 batting average against kept his WHIP in check and his final mark of 1.06 was good for fifth-best in the AL and his 31.1% strikeout rate led the junior circuit.
What To Expect From Ohtani In 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Ohtani entered free agency at the conclusion of the 2023 baseball season. The secretive superstar has given no clues as to where he will sign, though it has been said he will prioritize teams with an apparent commitment to winning a championship. With the Angels, he had Mike Trout (when healthy) and little else offering him protection in the lineup but joining an already star-studded crew would give him more chances to rack up RBI and be driven in more frequently himself.
What is known is that wherever Ohtani signs, he will be playing his first season there strictly as a hitter. Following his UCL tear in August, the ace underwent a procedure in mid-September to repair the injury and will not pitch until 2025. He will be fully available as a designated hitter in 2024, though. Ohtani is a couple of months ahead of the timeline established by Bryce Harper, who missed just over a month at the start of the 2023 season following surgery in November of 2022 to repair his own torn UCL.
Ohtani’s current ADP in NFBC leagues is 15.72, making him an early second-round pick in 12-team leagues. Given the assurances that his recent surgery will not restrict his ability to DH in 2024, fantasy managers who still see Ohtani available in the second round would be wise to pick him up there. Ohtani's brilliance when healthy justifies the risk in drafting him in early rounds. He is an elite fantasy player entering his age-29 season and will be set to contribute in a major way to whichever team is lucky enough to sign him this offseason.
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