RADIO
Happy Holidays RotoBallers! With most season-long leagues ending after Week 16, there are plenty of fantasy managers looking for a way to scratch that itch this weekend. DFS contests are a perfect way to stay involved in the games. This weekend, we have three games with over/unders over 50. That would include the Falcons-Buccaneers (51.5 points), 49ers-Rams (50.0), and Raiders-Chiefs (54.0). That being said, Week 17 can be tricky as teams with nothing to play for could opt to rest their starters. Playoff-bound teams with little to nothing to play for include: New Orleans, Dallas, and Seattle. It would not be recommended to pay up for their stars as they might only play a few series, if they suit up at all.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize point scoring. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 17 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by salary. The focus will be on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM EST Sunday) games across both sites. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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High-Priced Week 17 DFS Stacks
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown vs. Cincinnati
The Steelers have choked away the division lead over the past few weeks, losing to some inferior opponents including the Broncos in Week 12 and an extra painful loss to the Raiders in Week 14. They need to win on Sunday and hope the Browns can knock off to Ravens in order to make the playoffs. Either way, expect a team loaded with proud veterans to come to play against a Bengals team that has been a doormat for much of the second half. Cincinnati is allowing the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. Ben Roethlisberger can be considered a top-three quarterback play in all fantasy formats this weekend.
Brown and teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster are both exceptional plays this weekend and it is worth considering a three-man stack if you can afford it. If not, Brown has been much better at home while Smith-Schuster has ruled the road this season. With this game taking place in Pittsburgh, AB is worth paying up for on Sunday. Brown has scored in three straight contests against Cincinnati and has topped 100 receiving yards in each of his past two games.
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce vs. Oakland
The Chiefs can lock up a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win over the Raiders on Sunday. A loss and a Chargers win could drop them to the Wild Card round. Patrick Mahomes has been the best quarterback in fantasy all season and draws a prime matchup against an Oakland pass defense that ranks 31st in the league in DVOA while allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.
While it is tempting to pair Mahomes with his big-play specialist, Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce actually draws a much better matchup this weekend. While the Raiders have strangely been dynamite against No. 1 wide receivers this season (ranking second in DVOA), they have been a mess against the tight end position, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. Kelce himself hung a 12-catch, 168-yard, two-score game on them back in Week 13.
Moderately-Priced Week 17 DFS Stacks
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams vs. Detroit
After suffering through a mostly mediocre season, Rodgers got his mojo back in Week 16 against the Jets. The All-Pro quarterback roasted New York for 442 passing yards and four total touchdowns in an overtime win over Gang Green. Look for Rodgers to keep it going against a Lions defense that he whipped for 442 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 5. Detroit's pass defense ranks dead last in the league in DVOA and should provide little resistance for Rodgers this weekend.
As usual, Adams is the best pairing option for Rodgers. The overall WR1 on the season on both DraftKings and FanDuel, despite rarely being the top-priced wideout, Adams' volume and production are as bankable as anyone's in the league. A matchup against Darius Slay isn't ideal but Adams has fared well against plenty of top corners this season.
Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans vs. Atlanta
Winston and the Buccaneers finish off a disappointing season by welcoming the equally disappointing Atlanta Falcons to Tampa Bay. While both teams are playing for nothing more than pride, this contest could easily turn into a shootout. The Falcons employ one of the worst defenses in the league, ranking 29th in DVOA and allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Winston smashed the Falcons in their Week 6 meeting, passing for 395 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions while tacking on 31 rushing yards.
Evans has quietly turned in another exceptional season, sitting at 80 catches and 1,418 yards with one game left. He finished below expectations against the Falcons in their previous matchup, catching just four passes for 58 yards, but he has reached the end zone three times in his past four contests against Atlanta. With top Atlanta cornerback Desmond Trufant not expected to shadow Evans, the Bucs' star wideout will get to take shots against right corner Robert Alford on roughly one-third of his routes. Alford is among the lowest rated corners on Pro Football Focus, with a 52.1 grade.
Bargain-Priced Week 17 DFS Stacks
Los Angeles QB Jared Goff and WR Robert Woods vs. San Francisco
It's surprising to see any members of the Los Angeles passing game listed as bargains, but a late-season lull from Jared Goff has made Sean McVay's troops a bit more affordable. The Rams should be highly motivated heading into their second matchup with San Francisco, needing a win to lock up a first-round bye. While Goff hasn't been great lately, he has been much better at home this season and draws a great matchup for quarterbacks. The 49ers rank 25th in pass defense DVOA while allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to enemy signal-callers.
Since the Cooper Kupp injury, Woods has been running the majority of his routes from the slot, meaning he will mostly avoid coverage from top San Fran corner Richard Sherman, drawing primary coverage from D.J. Reed, Jr. instead. Reed has a 62 grade from PFF. Woods has outproduced and out-targeted teammate Brandin Cooks in four straight games now.
Philadelphia QB Nick Foles and WR Alshon Jeffery @ Washington
Foles is out to prove his Super Bowl run from last season was no fluke. The Eagles' second-stringer has put together two straight solid outings, piloting his team to an upset win over the Rams in Week 14 and throwing for 471 yards and four touchdowns last week. In the season finale, he draws a Washington defense that has been moving in the wrong direction as the season has gone on. The Eagles still have a chance at the playoffs with a win and a Minnesota loss, so expect them to go hard on Sunday.
Jeffery has had two solid games since Foles was inserted into the lineup, posting 11 catches for 242 yards. The veteran receiver should be in line for another solid game against a Washington defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Jeffery is likely to be shadowed by Josh Norman, but Norman hasn't been quite the shutdown force this season, allowing some big games to opposing receivers.
"YOLO" Contrarian Stack
Houston QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Jacksonville
The Jacksonville defense usually deters fantasy gamers but Houston is worth teeing up in GPPs. The Jaguars defense has been a disappointment this season and has nothing to play for on Sunday as they are well out of the playoff race. While there's a chance the Jags mail it in, the Texans can secure the No. 3 seed and the AFC South title with a win on Sunday. Vegas has the Texans has a seven-point favorite with an implied team point total of 23.75 points. Hopkins has been on a tear of late, posting consecutive 100-yard games and scoring twice. He is worth considering as a fantasy option whenever he's on the field, regardless of opponent.
