December 23, 2016

Joe Sorensen analyzes some Week 16 running back starts and sits for fantasy football. Target these NFL lineup sleepers, and avoid these potential busts, based on matchups.

This is it everyone. This is the weekend when most fantasy football leagues will be decided. Hopefully, you are playing for the championship. At worst, hopefully you are playing for the first-overall pick in next year’s draft (like I am in one of my leagues). Not only are NFL teams fighting for their seasons this week, everything that has to do with the sport is on the line this weekend.

With a lot of titles on the line, it is only fitting that we return to where we started the season with arguably the hardest position to predict. The running backs this season have been extremely complicated and inconsistent. This is the week that you need to hope that you get it right. Your entire season could lie on the shoulders of your RB2 or your flex starter. Best of luck everyone.

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It's Championship Week - Who Should You Start

*Remember: These columns do not include your every-week starters. For this week, players like Jay Ajayi, Spencer Ware and Jonathan Stewart are not considered. This article goes deeper than that.

Best Start Possible – Robert Kelley @ CHI

Kelley has come out of nowhere this season to pass both Matt Jones and Chris Thompson on the depth chart for the Redskins. He has been so productive that he pushed Jones, out of pads, on the sideline since his emergence. Kelley has only rushed 25 times for 71 yards in the past two games, but he has scored a TD in each game. He also has six of his 10 catches on the season in the past two games, meaning he is starting to become more involved in the passing game. Defensively, Chicago is not that good. They have given up an average of 4.2 yards per carry to RBs on the season, allowing 11 rushing TDs. Last week, though, the Bears gave up 162 rushing yards and two TDs to converted WR-turned-RB Ty Montgomery. There is potential for Chicago to be gashed for a lot of yardage by Kelley.

Quality Start – Bilal Powell @ NE

Yes, only Detroit’s DEF has allowed fewer rushing TDs to RBs this season (3). But, who else is going to produce any type of offense for the Jets. The QB situation there is horrible. Matt Forte, who was brought in to be the every down back, has been hurt and has disappointed this season. All-Pro WR Brandon Marshall has not done much of anything this season. The offense now falls on Powell’s shoulders. Even in last week’s blowout loss to the Dolphins, Powell totalled 162 yards on 27 touches. That is a pretty solid fantasy day, especially in PPR leagues. This week should be much of the same.

Worst Start Possible – Terrance West or Kenneth Dixon @ PIT

Going against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the team that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, this duo failed to produce in their earlier matchup in Week 9. Combined, the two of them produced 42 total yards on 27 touches (1.6 yards per touch). This is not  very convincing stat line for either of them. The worst part is that the previous game was in Baltimore. The Ravens are on the road this week as the travel to Pittsburgh to face the terrible towels. Until either West or Dixon separates themselves from the other, this is a timeshare to avoid, especially this week.

Not a Good Start – Chris Ivory v. TEN

Just like Coby Fleener in last week’s column, Ivory is another player that has failed to answer the question: What have you done for me lately? I will raise that and say what has he done for anyone this entire season. He has one game on the year with more than 48 rushing yards and has only scored two TDs all season. This plus the fact that Tennessee gives us the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs means that Ivory is not a very strong option this week, or the rest of the season.

Have a player or position question you would like me to talk about? Follow me on Twitter @JSorensen119 and let me know.