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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 7/5/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Friday, July 5th edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 13 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Friday, July 5th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Rosters and MLB Depth Charts for today's slate. Good luck!
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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 10.5
We have a pitching battle in the making tonight as Dylan Bundy and Aaron Sanchez take the mound at the Rogers Centre. That is a joke, as up in Canada, there are rumblings from the media that want to see Sanchez out of the rotation for good, as he allowed 36 runs in 27 innings of work during June. Bundy has been slightly better, but the Jays have oddly enough been one of the better offenses in baseball over the past week and should give him some trouble.
The over is 7-1-2 over the last ten games for the Orioles, while it is 7-3 for the Blue Jays, so this number could go higher, and I would still be leaning towards the over.
My Pick: Over 10.5
Milwaukee Brewers (-112) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 10.5
Oddsmakers continue giving large totals to the Brewers and they continue not to cover it, causing them to go under in eight of their last ten games. The Pirates have seen the over hit 25 out of 40 games at home this season, which may be causing the total to increase. However, they send Steven Brault to the mound, who hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last eight starts. These starts include a game five days ago between these same pitchers which ended 2-1.
When these two teams played last week, there were a combined 12 runs between the two teams in the entire three-game series, which makes it hard for me to believe that they will score 11 in one game tonight.
My Pick: Under 10.5
New York Yankees (-147) @ Tampa Bay Rays
O/U: 8.5
Masahiro Tanaka hasn't enjoyed pitching away from home this season, allowing a 5.35 ERA on the road. Brendan McKay looked pretty good in his first start, pitching six shutout innings. I don't think it will be as easy for him tonight against the mighty Yankees offense, so I would imagine he has some sort of regression. It might not even have to be too big of a setback if Tanaka continues his struggles on the road.
The Yankees have been performing well on the road, seeing the over hit in 29 of 40 games. While we always play the under when the Rays are on the road, they seem to excel when they enter the batter's box at home, recording an over record of 21-17-6.
My Pick: Over 8.5
Oakland Athletics (-144) @ Seattle Mariners
O/U: 9.5
Yusei Kikuchi posted a 7.03 ERA in June, to go along with the Mariners losing in four of his five starts. Meanwhile, Brett Anderson had a bit of a rough time with 4.04 ERA, but the Athletics managed to win four of his six starts. The Athletics have won seven of their last ten games, while the Mariners have only won four. The Mariners are also well below .500 at home this season, but the Athletics have enjoyed life on the road with a 22-20 record.
A large majority of the Mariners games have gone over, with 30 of their 44 home games either pushing or exceeding the total.
My Pick: Athletics (-144), Over 9.5
Nate's YTD picks: 48-31-2 (+13.45 Units)
