TAP FOR 6 MONTHS OF PREMIUM FREE 💰
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NBA DFS Risers and Fallers for Week 16

A lot can change in the NBA landscape in just a weeks' time. Since we last talked, John Wall and Kevin Love have gone down to injury and will miss serious time, and trade happenings are moving players - or just keeping them on the sideline until a deal gets done. Throw all of that mess on top of the already chaotic hour or two leading up to lock time - where we deal with countless late scratches and start/rest situations - and you've got a recipe for some difficult decisions to make when you need to construct your roster.

Of course, the silver lining to much of the chaos I just mentioned is that these moves open up opportunity - in the form of minutes, Usage rate, etc - for some of the up-and-comers. If we're able to identify these plays before the public does, we not only gain an advantage (by way of leverage) in tournaments, but we also get these players at a much lower price point.

Before I get further off on a tangent, here are two players whose current salaries outweigh their production, and two others who have become too cheap to ignore. Let's take a look.

Featured Promo: New Novig users get a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig deposit, and 6 free months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL) which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS and more! CLAIM IT NOW

 

DFS Value Risers - Week 16

Jamal Murray (PG/SG, DEN)

Jamal Murray is one of the draft picks I was most intrigued with - from a fantasy perspective and just general offensive contribution - from the 2016 NBA Draft, and he's starting to resemble the super threat self he was back in his college days. Since he really stepped onto the stage earlier this month, he's contributed DraftKings point total performances of 40, 47 and 54, to name a few. He's not going to produce at that level consistency, but he is showing an elite ceiling. The reason he's even higher on my radar right now is that, after three mediocre performances, his price is a drastic $1,200 less than it was 4 days ago. For the season, he's averaging .91 DraftKings points per minute, and when he's playing his usual allotment of 32-36 minutes with a 23% Usage rate, he has the ability to provide a safe floor and a high ceiling - currently at a value price. The position flexibility here ups his value as well. His next few opponents - Thunder, Warriors, Hornets and Rockets all offer (save for Charlotte) their own unique set of defensive challenges, but they present offensive opportunity in the form of fast paced matchups that result, usually, in high-scoring affairs. He's a big time GPP asset this week.

Pau Gasol (PF/C, SAS)

The value we've seemingly lost in the back court in San Antonio has resurfaced in the front court, in this case in the form of Pau Gasol. Gasol's price has dropped $1,100 since January 28th. A look through his game logs reveal he was able to hit and surpass value in four of his last six games, so the drop is a bit surprising. Nonetheless, he is the type of player that provides a stable floor of production, and when San Antonio is resting other front court teammates (as they often do), we see Gasol's Usage rate percentage climb over 20%. His current production per minute is relatively fantastic (1.1), and when he plays for 25+ minutes, he'll have little trouble providing cash value. His ultimate ceiling is a little limited, which takes him out of consideration for tournaments on most nights, but he's worth a shot on smaller slates. As for cash games, he's a good play at this price point and I'd continue rolling him out in good situations until that price creeps back above 6k.

 

DFS Value Fallers - Week 15

Dejounte Murray (PG, SAS)

Oh, Dejounte, it pains me to place you in this section, because, well, it sort of paints you in a negative light. After all, this is the value falling section. Murray's play, however, has been rising (along with his minutes) and he's packaged together some really impressive performances thus far since getting "the nod" from Coach Popovich. He's exceeded his price implied value in seven straight games. Even after his price has crept up above $5.5K, he's manged to exceed value by 2-4 points. The problem, here, is that I think we've seen enough of his ceiling and a consistent floor such that he'll be priced in a way that it will be difficult for him to give us plus-value - the kind of performances that are so far above their price implied total, that they alter the landscape of tournaments. Before his price reached it's current point - $5,900 - he was exceeding value by large margins - double digits, even. The other downside here is that the Spurs offense itself somewhat limits Murray's upside. As he stands right now, he's still a fine cash game play. The minutes look solid and the Usage rate is back above 20%. That said, the value has certainly decreased and the tournament allure has dwindled a healthy amount.

Gerald Green (SG/SF, HOU)

The Gerald Green fantasy era of early January - what a fun ride that was while it lasted. A few fantasy point explosions and locker room scuffles later, and we find ourselves with the option to roster Green at a steep price with very uncertain minutes and a dwindling Usage rate. That's a big "no thank you" from me, unless something changes (injury, trade) that would open up the opportunity again. Green's fantasy production was almost entirely (too) reliant on scoring buckets, and since that Usage rate well has dried up for him, he's not offering much in terms of floor or ceiling. The Eric Gordon back-tweak injury could lend him a few minutes, but he's still hard pass with a price point of $5,600.

 

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis





POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Maxx Crosby

Traded to Baltimore in Blockbuster Deal
Deni Avdija

to Miss Seventh Straight Game
Brandon Williams

is Returning on Friday
Klay Thompson

is Upgraded to Available on Friday
Amen Thompson

is Available on Friday
Daniel Gafford

Won't Play on Friday
Andrew Wiggins

is Downgraded to Out
Deandre Ayton

is Ruled Out for Friday's Game
LeBron James

Won't Suit Up on Friday
Mattias Janmark

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
Dalton Schultz

Texans, Dalton Schultz Agree on One-Year Extension
John Gibson

Starting Against Panthers
Roope Hintz

Available Against Avalanche
Sidney Crosby

Rejoins Practice Friday
Bobby McMann

Traded to Seattle
Justin Faulk

Lands in Detroit
Nazem Kadri

Avalanche Bring Back Nazem Kadri
Joe Mixon

Texans Release Joe Mixon
Harrison Barnes

is Ruled Out for Friday
Quinn Priester

Brewers Concerned About Quinn Priester's Wrist Injury
Dejounte Murray

is Cleared for Friday's Game
VJ Edgecombe

Misses Friday's Practice
Corbin Carroll

Taking Live At-Bats in Camp
Joel Embiid

to be Re-Evaluated in One Week
Yanic Konan Niederhauser

to Undergo Foot Surgery
Jayson Tatum

is Officially Returning on Friday
Brayden Schenn

Islanders Trade for Brayden Schenn
Elmer Soderblom

Penguins Acquire Elmer Soderblom
Ricky Tiedemann

Could Resume Throwing Soon
Jackson Chourio

"Fine" After Suffering Hand Contusion
Trey Yesavage

Blue Jays "Still View" Trey Yesavage as a Starter
Max Holloway

A Favorite At UFC 326
Charles Oliveira

Set For BMF Title Fight
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Prefer Not to Start Fernando Mendoza Immediately?
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Looks To Bounce Back
Caio Borralho

Set For UFC 326 Co-Main Event
Rob Font

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Clarke Schmidt

Ditching New Sweeper Grip
Raul Rosas Jr.

Looks For His Fifth Consecutive Win
J.J. Wetherholt

Is JJ Wetherholt Already the Best Cardinals Hitter?
Corey Perry

Lightning Acquire Corey Perry
Drew Dober

Returns At UFC 326
Michael Johnson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Rafael Devers

Could Return to Game Action Next Week
Nick Foligno

Wild Acquire Nick Foligno
Bobby Brink

Wild Acquire Bobby Brink
Geno Smith

Raiders Release Geno Smith
Josue Briceño

Josue Briceno has Wrist Surgery, Expected to Miss Multiple Months
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Hopes to be Ready for Opening Day
Jackson Chourio

Won't Play in WBC on Friday
Carlos Correa

Scratched With Neck Injury
Brandon Woodruff

is a Risky Draft Choice
Jackson Merrill

Likely to Bounce Back in 2026
Junior Caminero

Could be Risky at Current ADP
Nic Dowd

Golden Knights Acquire Nic Dowd
Jeff Petry

Traded to Wild
Nicolas Roy

Shipped to Colorado
David Perron

Returns to Detroit
Michael Bunting

Stars Add Michael Bunting From Nashville
Conor Garland

Moves to Columbus
John Carlson

Ducks Acquire John Carlson
Owen Caissie

Off to Slow Start in Camp
Logan Henderson

Sharp in Spring Training
Robby Snelling

Punches Out Six Over Three Scoreless Frames
Bryce Eldridge

Performing Well in Cactus League
Dylan Beavers

Holding his Own in Spring Games
Chase Burns

has Uneven Command in Spring Training
Alexis Lafrenière

Alexis Lafreniere Collects Three Points in Victory
Igor Shesterkin

Picks Up Victory Against Maple Leafs
Grant Williams

Good to Go Friday
Ivica Zubac

to Remain Out Friday
Aaron Nesmith

Listed as Probable for Friday
Danielle Hunter

Texans, Danielle Hunter Agree to One-Year, $40.1 Million Extension
Trey Murphy III

Available Thursday Night
Zion Williamson

Cleared to Take on Kings
Andrew Nembhard

Expected to Play Against Lakers Friday
Pascal Siakam

Probable for Friday's Action
DJ Moore

Bears Working to Finalize Deal to Send DJ Moore to Buffalo
Stefon Diggs

Patriots Releasing Stefon Diggs
Trent McDuffie

Chiefs Sending Trent McDuffie to Rams in Blockbuster Deal
Taylor Moore

Looking to Build on Cognizant Classic Finish
Robert MacIntyre

Brings Solid Form to Bay Hill
Scottie Scheffler

the Tournament Favorite at Bay Hill
Xander Schauffele

Trending Well Ahead of API
Si Woo Kim

Looking to Return to Top Form at Bay Hill
Ben Griffin

Looking to Return to Form at Arnold Palmer Invitational
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks to Build on Cognizant Classic Win at Arnold Palmer
Sam Burns

Searching for Consistency at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Daniel Berger

Offers Sneaky Upside at Bay Hill
Justin Thomas

Making Season Debut at API Following Lower-Back Surgery
NASCAR

Collin Morikawa Hopes To Better Last Year's Runner-Up Finish at API
Tommy Fleetwood

Isn't As Confident of a Start at Bay Hill as Previous Weeks
Kyler Murray

Will be Released
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Not Using the Franchise Tag on Trey Hendrickson
Daniel Jones

Colts Place Transition Tag on Daniel Jones
Adam Scott

Might Endure Tough Times at Bay Hill
Aldrich Potgieter

Extremely Risky When it Comes to Bay Hill
PGA

Sungjae Im to Make Season Debut at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Jordan Spieth

an All-or-Nothing Option at Bay Hill
Harry Hall

Trying to Rebound After the Genesis Invitational
Ryan Gerard

Needs Better Start at Bay Hill
Kenneth Walker III

Won't Get the Franchise Tag
Patrick Cantlay

Still Plagued by Bad Putting Ahead of Arnold Palmer Invititational
Daniel Jones

Colts Expected to Use Transition Tag on Daniel Jones
Breece Hall

Jets Placing Franchise Tag on Breece Hall
CFB

Mark Stoops Joining Texas Coaching Staff
Jason Day

Attempts to Bounce Back from The Genesis Invitational
Jacob Bridgeman

Rolling into Arnold Palmer Invitational
Russell Henley

Looks to Defend Title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Khalil Mack

Will Play in 2026
MMA

Lone'er Kavanagh Gets Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno

Gets Outclassed
Marlon Vera

Loses Fourth Fight In A Row
Daniel Jones

Colts Have "50/50" Chance to Get a Deal Done With Daniel Jones
David Martinez

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Daniel Zellhuber

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
King Green

Gets Second-Round TKO Win
Felipe Bunes

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Édgar Cháirez

Edgar Chairez Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ryan Blaney

Falls to Eighth Despite Running Most of the Race in the Top Five At COTA
Ty Gibbs

Wins A Stage and Finishes Fourth At COTA
Christopher Bell

Earns First Top-Five Finish of the 2026 Season at COTA
Kyler Murray

"Repeatedly" Linked to Jets
Shane Van Gisbergen

Falls Short of Victory At COTA
Tyler Reddick

Wins At COTA and Makes NASCAR History
David Montgomery

Texans Acquire David Montgomery From Lions
Kyler Murray

Likely to be Released
Travis Etienne Jr.

Not Expected to be Franchise-Tagged
Tyler Reddick

Could Make History at COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Still the Favorite at COTA
Christopher Bell

Will Be Tough to Beat at COTA
AJ Allmendinger

Could Contend at COTA
Connor Zilisch

Carries Plenty of Upside for DFS at COTA
Chase Elliott

May be A Strong Contender Again at COTA
Chris Buescher

Is Nothing But Consistent at Road Courses
Ross Chastain

May Be An Underrated Competitor for the Win at COTA
William Byron

Is William Byron a Viable DFS Option for COTA?
Carson Hocevar

Needs Clean Race at COTA
Kyle Larson

Could be A Decent DFS Option for COTA Lineups
Ryan Blaney

Could Ryan Blaney be A Sleeper DFS Option for All Formats for COTA?
Chase Briscoe

Should DFS Players Roster Chase Briscoe at COTA?
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Is A Favorable Value Option for COTA DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs

Could Ty Gibbs Be A Rosterable DFS Play for COTA?