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We continue our preseason fantasy football sleeper series with a look at Detroit Lions running back Kerryon Johnson.
While the first few rounds of every draft are essentially a wash-rinse-repeat of the consensus top-36, we can always count on those middle and late rounds to cement our confidence in this year's sleepers. The definition of the fantasy football sleeper has changed over the years, with the emergence of the industry itself on social media. The common sleeper today isn't a player that is being 'slept on' by the community. They're more like a player in a great spot to outperform his average draft position based on a plethora of factors.
Let's see why Chubb could fit that bill in upcoming fantasy drafts.
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2018 Sleeper - Kerryon Johnson
Value is the name of the game in the mid-to-late rounds of fantasy football drafts. Once the top players have come off the board, the difference between the average and the best fantasy owners is the ability to find those players who cost little but scream potential upside.
These are the type of players who you can confidently select to add depth to your roster while waiting to see if they will live up to their upside at some point in the season.
Enter Detroit Lions rookie running back Kerryon Johnson, who many will quickly dismiss over workload concerns with his new team. However, I would encourage every fantasy owner to take a deeper look at this 5'11, 206 lb rusher out of Auburn and consider that he may be a perfect fit for your team.
The Good, The Bad, The Unknown
The Good: Johnson Has the Talent to be Involved Early
The Detroit Lions clearly saw something they liked in Johnson, trading their 51st and 117th overall picks in the 2018 NFL Draft to move up eight spots in the second round to take him. That move really shouldn't be too surprising though, as Johnson improved as a runner every single one of his seasons with Auburn culminating in 2017 SEC Offensive Player of the Year honors. In his last college season, Johnson accumulated 1,394 rushing yards en route to leading the SEC in rushing yards per game at 115.9.
Johnson's skill set as a running back perfectly fits the Lions outside zone run scheme in an offense desperately seeking to take pressure off of quarterback Matthew Stafford. As a tall, upright runner, his ability to patiently glide to run gaps and then shift gears with a one-cut burst is why he received comparisons to Le'Veon Bell and Arian Foster coming into the draft. He shows great discipline following his blockers and uses his strong legs to keep the pile moving, as evidenced by how he broke 50 tackles in 2017 while averaging 2.9 yards per carry after contact. To get a sense of how deadly his jump-cuts are, check out some of his runs against Alabama last season.
While his athletic profile isn't off the charts, Johnson's 69th-percentile SPARQ score and 4.54/4.49 second 40-yard dash times at Auburn’s Pro Day indicate starting caliber traits. That being said, Johnson won't be beating most tacklers with pure speed at the point of attack, but rather his shiftiness and ability to burst through run lanes. His explosiveness was on display at the NFL Combine where he had a 40-inch vertical jump and a 126-inch broad jump, which ranked in the 93rd and 91st percentile, respectively, all-time among running backs.
The Bad: Johnson's Situation is Less than Ideal
Although there is plenty to like about Johnson, there are undoubtedly concerns about his ability to make a fantasy impact upon immediately entering the NFL. In terms of his ability as a rusher, Johnson can be too patient at times at the line of scrimmage and contribute to negative runs. He also doesn’t run with much power and takes a lot of hard hits due to his upright running style. If he can adjust his running style to avoid fewer bruising hits in the way Le'Veon Bell has learned to master, his longevity shouldn't be too much of an issue.
Unfortunately, the Lions are a less than ideal situation for Johnson to have a breakout rookie campaign. Former New England Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia currently occupies the Lions head coaching position, meaning he will likely incorporate the committee backfield that the Patriots are so infamous for using. Johnson joins a backfield full of viable players too, including LeGarrette Blount, Ameer Abdullah, and Theo Riddick, who could all see work at some time in the season. Even more problematic is that if Johnson does manage to take over early down work, Blount could easily be the go-to guy on the goal line. Although his youthful days are clearly behind him, the 31-year old Blount saw 10 carries inside the 5-yard-line last season, the ninth most in the league. Of course, he did only find the end zone once with those attempts, so his lack of efficiency could contribute to Johnson getting those opportunities.
Finally, Johnson does carry a lengthy injury history coming into the league, as he dealt with rib, right shoulder and hamstring injuries in 2017 and a sprained an ankle in 2016. Should those injuries become re-aggravated, he likely won't get the workload many fantasy owners hope for.
Bottom Line: Don't Forget Johnson in Your Drafts
Johnson is a tall, upright runner with good speed and the ability to make big plays. Although he sometimes struggles when making moves in short spaces, his unique style of gliding to the hole and then accelerating quickly through it has proven effective throughout his college years and should allow him to carry a big workload in the NFL. The Lions didn't move up to have Johnson sit on the bench for his rookie season, as he has the potential upside to be a factor on all three downs in 2018. Johnson is currently going in the ninth round of fantasy drafts and could fall even further should his name stay quiet during training camp. Do yourself a favor and don't forget about Johnson's name in the list of rookie running backs to take in your fantasy draft this season.
