RADIO
Tight end Hayden Hurst is on the move from Baltimore to Atlanta after signing as a free agent. Rishi Patel evaluates Hurst's fantasy value to determine if he is a TE to target in 2020 drafts.
Amidst the flurry of signings and trades that have occurred at the start of NFL free agency, an under-the-radar move took place early on.
2018 first-round pick Hayden Hurst of the Baltimore Ravens was traded to the Atlanta Falcons. This filled a need at the TE spot with Austin Hooper bolting for Cleveland through a record-setting deal. Now, Hurst is a member of the Falcons and set to be the TE1 of the team.
As we did with Hooper and newest Bear TE Jimmy Graham, let us dive into the details of this move to see if Hurst can provide fantasy value in 2020.
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A Disappointing Debut
With the emergence of fellow tight end Mark Andrews in Baltimore, Hurst took a backseat role as the Ravens steamrolled through the AFC last season. Nevertheless, the big tight end improved his numbers modestly in his second season in 2019, recording 30 receptions, 349 yards receiving, 11.6 yards per reception, a 76.9 percent catch rate, and two touchdowns, while also getting 39 targets overall.
The number of targets was lower for Hurst compared to other TEs Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle, who attracted 98 and 43 targets, respectively. When adding this up, the Jacksonville native had 39 of 180 targets, only 21 percent. With three capable tight ends on the team, it was expected the 26-year-old would have to fight for targets and he didn’t luck out with production as Mark Andrews broke out.
Will Things Change in Atlanta?
Most definitely yes. Hooper left a major void in the Falcons’ receiving core, as he amassed 80 percent of the TE targets, was third in receiving yards on the team and emerged as a breakout player in 2019. Hurst has the potential to be a breakout candidate in 2020 too, the only reason he couldn’t in Baltimore was because of heavy competition for snaps and production with other skilled receivers.
When you look at the Falcons’ tight end production aside from Hooper, there was a total of 17 receptions, 24 targets, and 202 yards receiving. There is a ton of potential for Hurst to have a major role on this unit and team, especially with virtually no competition on Atlanta’s TEs unit.
As far as the effect on Atlanta's receivers, it depends on the rapport the 26-year-old builds with QB Matt Ryan. But when looking at it realistically, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will certainly get their share of production. Players aside from these two on the Falcons’ receiving core are not fantasy-relevant.
We all know Julio is the top receiver on this team and his production cannot be interfered with by anyone, as evidenced by his 1,394 receiving yards, 99 receptions, and 157 targets last season. Meanwhile, 25-year-old Calvin Ridley emerged as an explosive weapon on this offense, racking up 866 yards, 63 receptions, and 93 targets. These two alone consumed 37 percent of the team’s targets, and it’s fair to assume the same next season as they are the two leading receivers on the team. However, Hooper had 97 targets last year too, therefore making it possible Hurst could elevate himself to the third-leading receiver on this team due to the void.
Fantasy Outlook
Hurst should see a decent number of targets and will get more production than during his tenure in Baltimore because he fills the void at TE on the Falcons. With Todd Gurley signed, this Falcons offense could be as explosive as it has been since their Super Bowl appearance four years ago.
ATL has elite receivers, so while the former Raven will get an uptick in targets and hopefully production, he will not be close to the top fantasy option on the team. He is best viewed as someone outside the top-12 among fantasy tight ends and realistically a TE2. In terms of drafting tight ends, consider him a flat middle-tier pick, though he undoubtedly brings the potential for a breakout and reliability. In leagues with two tight end sets, Hurst is a great option. If you choose him as the top TE in redraft leagues, know the risk that comes because his chemistry with the team remains unknown for now.
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