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Fantasy football start em, sit em and lineups advice for the Titans vs 49ers Thursday game in Week 16 (2021). Ellis Johnson analyzes the TNF matchups with a detailed breakdown.
We are officially in the fantasy playoffs for all leagues. For those of you who made it, congratulations. To those of you joining us after a bye week, I hope you didn’t get too comfortable. Lastly, to those of us that missed playoffs, let’s focus on the holiday season and enjoy the NFL playoff push.
Last week was wildly mediocre for fantasy. In what was most fantasy manager’s worst nightmare, we had one of the lowest scoring Week 15’s of all time. This included star fantasy players such as Ja'Marr Chase, Alvin Kamara, Najee Harris, and many others, posting season-low fantasy weeks. On top of this, we had a few monster games from the usual suspects (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews for example) as well as Tyler Huntley and Duke Johnson Jr.
Going into Week 16, we can only hope for a better fantasy output. To start the week off we have two teams that are both on the verge of making the postseason. The revitalized 49ers are traveling to Nashville to take on a hobbled Titans team. As always, my name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your RotoBaller Thursday Night Preview.
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San Fransisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans - 8:20 pm ET
Notable Injuries
- Taylor Lewan (T, TEN) - Back - Out
- Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF) - Knee - Out
- Julio Jones (WR, TEN) - Hamstring - Active
- A.J. Brown (WR, TEN) - Chest - Active
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN): He’s back baby. Well, hopefully he is back. After being activated from the Injured Reserve earlier this week, all signs are pointing in the right direction. The young superstar has been very disappointing for fantasy this season. Not only has he missed a significant portion of the season due to injuries, but he also had five of his nine games under 10 fantasy points. Thankfully we have seen stretches this season that showcase the upside of Brown, with two consecutive weeks with 130+ receiving yards and a score. The Titans are taking on a 49ers team that ranks 11th in fantasy points allowed to the position. The Titans offense has been struggling, and Brown just might be the spark they need to get back on track. I would start AJB as a solid WR1 this week.
UPDATE: A.J. Brown has officially been activated from IR and will return this week.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF): Speaking of WR1’s, holy smokes is Deebo Samuel having a year. Whether he is a receiver or running back, Samuel has become the best in the league at yards after the catch. He is currently the WR2 on the season and has the second most touchdowns at the position. In both of the categories, he is only trailing Cooper Kupp and of his 12 touchdowns, seven are rushing touchdowns. With the 49ers backfield being a revolving door, Samuel has become not only their leading receiver but the team's lead back when necessary. Samuel is one of the most versatile players in the league and should continue to carry your fantasy team this week against the team that allows the second-most fantasy points to the WR position.
George Kittle (TE, SF): Here we transition from one yards after the catch monster to another. Ironically on the same team, Kittle has put his athletic abilities on full display these last few weeks. Since returning from injury, Kittle has been on a tear. Over this seven-week period, he only has one week below ten fantasy points, averaging 89 receiving yards and 0.86 touchdowns. Oh, and also he is the TE-one over the last seven weeks. Unless you are against Andrews or Kelce, Kittle is a massive fantasy advantage at the position. I would look for him to continue his dominance in this good matchup.
Solid Options for Fantasy Football Lineups
D'Onta Foreman (RB, TEN): From the depths of the fantasy underworld, Foreman has resurfaced himself and taken over one of the league’s most prolific rushing offenses. For those of you who believe his resurgence has come out of nowhere, here is a little history. The 2016 Doak Walker Award Winner (given to the best college running back) entered the league with a lot of buzz. After being drafted to the Texans in 2017 in the third round, he found himself sitting behind the veteran Lamar Miller. In his limited work, he displayed explosiveness and promise. Unfortunately with an Achilles tear in 2018, he found himself being picked up by the Colts off of waivers in 2019. He then had to leave after tearing his bicep in the preseason and tried out for the Titans in 2020. Flash forward to now, and we have ourselves the RB10 over the last two weeks. All of that was to say that this kid had promise and has had to overcome devastating injuries. Over his last three games, he has 100 yards rushing twice and found the endzone in the third game. If you managed to pick him up from your waivers you are most likely playing him out of necessity, however, he is a solid play against a mild-tier 49er run defense.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF): Since Week 12, Jimmy G has quietly snuck his way into the QB-one category. Over these last three games, he is the QB11 and is the QB18 on the season. In the last four games, he has torched teams for 230+ yards in each game, including two games narrowly missing the 300-yard mark. When you have weapons like Samuel and Kittle, managers have been relieved to see the veteran QB start airing out the ball. Tennessee's defense is in the top half in most points allowed to the QB position this season. If you are desperate for a playoff QB or need a solid QB-two this week, Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid play this Thursday.
Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN): Unfortunately, Tannehill just hasn’t been cutting it for fantasy teams. It’s hard to blame the veteran after losing key players in Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones for most of the year. It came as no surprise that losing Henry slowed the entire fantasy offense, but ironically, the loss of the star running back has impacted Tannehill the most. Failing to score 10 fantasy points in three of his last four games, it’s hard to trust Tannehill this week. Thankfully, he possesses upside with his legs, as he has scored twice on the ground over the last two weeks. Plus, the return of A.J. Brown does spark some optimism. However, he is no more than a high-upside/low-floor play this week against a very solid 49ers defense.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF): If there was an award for the scariest player to start in fantasy, Aiyuk would have to be in the running. After being praised all offseason, he literally disappeared at the start of the season. Then, seemingly out of the blue, he started seeing starter snap counts and six or more targets in six of the last eight games. Then, once you finally feel comfortable playing him, he catches one of two targets for 36 yards against a poor Falcons secondary last week. Thankfully he gets the chance to redeem himself against another exploitable opponent. The Titans are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position and could provide some life for the young receiver. However, because we saw a good matchup last week and it did not translate for Aiyuk’s fantasy success, he is hard to trust as more than a high-upside flex play this week.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF): Yes, Elijah Mitchell has been ruled out. Yes, Wilson Jr. is coming off a monster game. No, I don’t think you should play him if you have other alternative options. Well, at least I think you should be careful if you do decide to start him. This “sit” is a result of Tennessee being the best fantasy defense against running backs on the season. They have managed to shut down the run all season, and that continued last week as they stiffed Najee Harris. Wilson Jr. finally had the game managers had been waiting for, however, I don’t want to rely on one good performance in the fantasy playoffs, especially against a very tough opponent. I would look elsewhere this week if possible.
Other Titans pass-catchers: Whether you are holding onto Julio Jones or are taking a shot at Anthony Firkser, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, or Chester Rogers, I don’t think you can play any of them this week. Not only have the 49ers been very solid on defense these last few weeks, but these players also have not been reliable for fantasy. Although it is tough to sit Julio Jones if he is active, I would not want to risk the possibility of reinjury this week. My favorite player of this group has to be Westbrook-Ikhine as he has seen six or more targets in three of the last four games, but I would try to find the higher upside in another flyer this week.
As soon as we were heating up, we cooled right down. Thanks to a massive fourth quarter and an overtime touchdown, we missed on both of our picks last week. Nevertheless, we go into this week with fresh eyes. The Titans have been playing miserable football recently, while the 49ers could be argued to be one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Additionally, with the Titan's lack of passing defense and desperation to turn their season around at home, this could be a fun game to start Week 16. I wish you all the best of luck this week and happy holidays!
Ellis’ Picks: 49ers -3.0 (12-5), Over 44.0 (11-6)
Career record: Spread (21-14), Over/Under (20-15)
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