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Corbin Young looks at the fantasy football outlook for Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan in 2024. Where is McMillan worth drafting in redraft and dynasty leagues?
The Washington Huskies had three of their receivers drafted in the top 100 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. Since professional football lacks the developmental and minor leagues, rookies hope to make an impact in Year 1 or 2. Since the Huskies had three legitimate receiving options paired with Michael Penix Jr., there could be a good chance Jalen McMillan will make a fantasy impact in 2024.
Besides the offensive coordinator change, the Buccaneers kept their offense together, providing consistency for the playmakers. Most offensive opportunities filter through their top two receivers and running back. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rachaad White lead the team in receiving opportunities, but McMillan can feed off the pass catchers.
We'll examine McMillan's college production, closest comparisons, team context, and fantasy football outlook for 2024 and beyond. Should McMillan warrant more attention as a late-round pick? Or is it a wasted pick for redraft and dynasty leagues?
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College Production
With a loaded Washington Husky receiver room, including Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan, the latter two might go overlooked. McMillan peaked as a junior with 79 receptions, 1,098 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns, translating into a 25 percent Receiver Dominator. He battled a knee injury in 2023, causing him to miss time and limiting his collegiate production during their National Championship run. McMillan produced per game as a senior, with a 23 percent Receiver Dominator.
Since 2010, McMillan's RotoViz Box Score comps don't inspire confidence, with Chris Moore as the "most" fantasy-relevant option. When surface results don't pop, we want to lean into the underlying metrics and film for McMillan. It's worth noting that Odunze dominated the targets and opportunities for the Huskies, so McMillan and Polk factored into the next best option as a receiver. McMillan ranked 10th in targets per route run (29.3 percent), with a below-average yards per route run (YPRR) against man defenses of 2.17 (No. 21) and 2.33 YPRR versus zone (No. 25) among 40 qualified rookie receivers.
Team Context
McMillan joining the Buccaneers means they're adding to their depth behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay tied for 11th with a 59 percent pass rate, with the second-highest target share to the receiver position at 68.2 percent behind the Rams (71.7 percent). In a previous fantasy football article covering slot receiver targets and fades, I discussed the talk about Godwin playing more in the slot in 2024 since the new coaching staff mentioned Godwin's usage.
That could suggest McMillan may battle for the other outside receiver role since the team is looking for a complimentary player to pair with Evans and Godwin. Interestingly, McMillan played mostly in the slot in college, with an 89.2 percent slot route rate in 2023 and 92.5 percent in 2022. That's a significant change after he played mostly outside in 2021 (85.6 percent). While the Huskies shifted McMillan mostly into the slot, he can play out wide if given the chance.
Last season, the Buccaneers used Trey Palmer and Cade Otton as their fourth or fifth options in the passing game. Palmer ran a relatively even distribution of routes in the slot (55.4 percent) and outside (44.2 percent). If Godwin's slot usage increases, Palmer and McMillan may battle for more repetitions as an outside receiver.
Fantasy Football Outlook
The Buccaneers have a new offensive coordinator in Liam Coen, who previously served as the OC for the University of Kentucky and the Rams. With most of the team's offensive personnel remaining consistent, the offense likely won't change much from 2023 in pass and rush rates. That's especially true when considering the team extended Evans in the offseason while keeping the core of Godwin, Rachaad White, and Otton. On Underdog, McMillan goes in the later rounds at pick 188.3 as WR82 near Khalil Herbert, Marvin Mims Jr., Malachi Corley, Luke McCaffrey, Jonnu Smith, and Daniel Jones.
McMillan is a talented receiver who can play in the slot and out wide. Since Godwin and Evans played together in 2017, zero receivers garnered 75 targets in a season playing alongside the duo. When we filter to 50 targets as a minimum, Palmer (68 in 2023), Russell Gage (70 in 2022), Antonio Brown (62 in 2021), Tyler Johnson (55 in 2021), Brown in 2020 (62) and Scotty Miller in 2020 (53) served as the third-most targeted receiver. That list doesn't include running backs or tight ends, showing the third receiver in Tampa Bay might be fighting an uphill battle for receiving opportunities.
The data indicates McMillan might struggle to make a fantasy impact in Year 1 unless Evans or Godwin misses time. That's evident in the multiple years of data with Evans and Godwin soaking up the receiving opportunities with Tom Brady and Baker Mayfield leading the offense. Draft McMillan as a deep-league rookie option, and don't sleep on him.
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